German bank Berenberg recommends that investors direct 45% of their portfolios to gold, precious metals and bitcoin, 20% to commodities and 35% to shares, completely avoiding bonds. Strategic analysts, led by Jonathan Stubbs, argue that the environment of geopolitical instability, persistent inflation and high state debt favours this distribution. The bank estimates that a possible deal between Donald Trump and Shi Jinping within the next month could boost the stock markets, despite the six key risks it detects.
Analyticalally:
Its strategic analysts Berenberg The Committee considered that theiii investors should direct nearly half of their portfolios (more specifically 45%) to gold, precious metals and bitcoin, avoiding fully the bonds; in an environment of increased geopolitical risks, persistent inflation and rearrange the world economy.
According to a new German bank analysis, a possible deal between the President of the United States Donald Trump and the President of China Shi Jinping Within the next month it could give new impetus to the stock markets, By prolonging the upward rally.
The investment strategy proposed by Berenberg is based on a press approach «barbell», i.e. a combination of high and low risk investments. The model provides placing 45% on what the bank calls «gold plus» — category comprising gold, silver, other precious metals and Bitcoin — and And 20% in commodities.
The balance 35% the portfolio is headed toe shares.
Berenberg's chief strategic analyst, Jonathan Stubbs, said the bank is implementing asset allocation strategy with long-term logic rather than regular short-term movements, making only rare changes.
As of 2020, Berenberg supports the strategy «shares and gold», considering thatgold is a «much better and more appropriate risk compensation than bonds».
For this reason, the bank's investment model maintains «zero exposure» bonds, option associated with concerns about the high levels of government debt, the weakening of traditional currencies and the risk of prolonged inflation.
The Berenberg strategy is based on three key macroeconomic axes:
- Geopolitical destabilization —focused on the US and China confrontation and deglobalization—,
- financial sovereignty leading to currency devaluation and financial repression, as well as
- the script «higher for longer», That is higher inflation, interest rates and commodity prices over a longer period of time.
According to the bank, the combination of these factors forms a developing patient environment at increased risk of stagnation, due to the pressure on demand and the supply disturbances it causes the war with Iran. Nevertheless, recession is not the basic scenario of the analysis.
Based on this assessment, Berenberg qualified for increased exposure to international shares against the American market, whereas theThe dollar will remain weak for a prolonged period.
The bank notes that it has already increased its international portfolio dimension since the end of 2024, although it acknowledges that after the recent strong rally, shares appear less attractive in the short term.
At level industries, analysts consider that utilities and telecommunications are safe options «for every weather», while continuing to increase exposure to goods in 2026.
Bank analysts also recommend Positions in sectors related to geopolitical power and state expenditure, as well as in industries which can function as compensation against the twists brought by artificial intelligence.
The main investment themes include: metals of the energy transition, such as nickel, cobalt and copper, and artificial intelligence and digital payments.
At the same time, Berenberg warns thatThe current period is characterised by extreme uncertainty, λόγω αυτού που αποκαλεί «Trumpian Paradigm Shift» — της νέας γεωπολιτικής και οικονομικής πραγματικότητας που συνδέεται με την πολιτική Τραμπ.
Η τράπεζα καταγράφει έξι βασικούς κινδύνους — πολιτική, πολιτικές αποφάσεις, τιμές, κερδοφορία, κοινωνικές εξελίξεις και πανδημίες — ενώ δεν αποκλείει ακόμη και ακραία σενάρια τύπου «μαύρου κύκνου», όπως κρίσεις κρατικού χρέους ή κατάρρευση νομισμάτων και αγορών τροφίμων.
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