The Demosthenes Triangle
The scoreboard of the first half of 2026 shares participating in MSCI Greece first brings the share of GEK Terna, which is the last time introduction to the index. We have pointed out many times that the journey is what counts, not the destination! At the same time, the first in performance over the last 7 years is PPC with +1,306% (!), which had been on the edge of the cliff and is now constantly at the forefront.
According to Factset's figures, the profit change of 2025-2026 for MSCI Greece Index is a growth of 11.5%, while for 2026-2027, profit growth estimates remain in a two-digit percentage. We take this indicator into account, as it is he who represents our country in international funds.
Before the introduction of the GCC Terna, the participation of banks in MSCI Greece reached 77%, resulting in the low P/E of banks significantly shrinking the index price to profits of the country for the representative index. Thus, the price-to-profit index (P/E) for MSCI Greece reaches 10 times the estimated profits of the next 12 months according to the MSCI, while the dividend rate of the MSCI Greece indicator is approaching the least laxable 3.3%!
In individual shares, according to profit growth, GEK Terna, PPC and Allwyn stand out. More specifically, GEK Terna is estimated to increase its profits by 19% and 35% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, while the profit multiplier (P/E) reaches 29 and 24 times the estimated profits of 2026 and 2027.
At the same time, in PPC, according to the estimates collected by Factset, the development of profits is expected to reach +17% for 2026 and 8% in 2027. The truth is that, according to PPC's business plan, we would expect growth to continue at least in a two-digit rate by 2030, but it seems that analysts are moving slower in reviewing PPC's profits.
Of the four banks, Alpha Bank stands out with +15% profit growth for 2026 and +15% for 2027, distinguishing from the rest. At the same time, the valuation of Alpha Bank, despite showing the highest expected profit growth of the four banks participating in MSCI Greece, presents the lowest index price for profits per share (P/E), with only 9.6 times for 2026 and 8.3 for 2027!
Turning over the table of odds, Allwyn and Jumbo are the exception to the rule for different reasons each, since they are the only negative odds of the 9 participating in the index! Allwyn, after the merger, has been found to retreat 27% in the first half of 2026, with the price index to profits magnified, as capitalization (numberer) increased disproportionately with profits (pronoun). However, if profit estimates are verified, the P/E ratio for 2027 is 13,6 times and at more attractive levels than 2026!
On the other hand, Jumbo's share is the second in losses for the MSCI Greece index, with -20%, in a year where profit estimates appear to remain in a low one-digit number, with only 3% for 2026 and 4% for 2027. Based on these estimates, the price-to-profit ratio exceeds 9 times for 2026, while for 2027 it does not exceed 8.8 times. The estimate of the column is that, once the market is "suspension" that an upward profit review is imminent, it will rush to discount it by pushing the share to higher levels. Until then waiting.
In conclusion, valuations generally remain attractive, with MSCI Greece's P/E bordering the two-digit number for 2026 and slightly higher for 2027. In the last two years the Greek market had a profit growth that was lower than the growth of capitalization, resulting in the P/E index, from 7 times in 2024, exceeding 10 times in 2026. However, the estimated profitability now shows quite encouraging for the continuation, supporting current capitalisation. What remains to be done is to verify the estimates of profits in order to maintain the attractiveness of Greek shares!
Source: FACTSET, BETA CIF
Main raw materials in first semester returns
With 3.7% profits, June closed, thus leading the return of the first half 2026 to a satisfactory +16%, considering the negative return of the first quarter 2026 to -2,6%! The top odds of the first half of 2026 for large capitalization belong to GEK Terna (+73%), Viochalco (+61%) and Cenergy (+53%). In contrast, the highest losses were noted by Credia Bank (-28%), Allwyn (-27%) and Jumbo (-20%).
For June Aktor (+33%), Coca-Cola HBC (+17%) and Allwyn (+11%) were the most won, while Credia Bank (-12%), Cenergy (-8.0%) and Viohalco (-8%) noted the highest losses. At index level, the basic goods stood out with +7.8%, while only the raw material industry with -3.9% was closed negatively.
On a sectoral level, with losses completed in the first half of 2026 consumer goods with -17% and real estate with -1.4%, while the most important profits recorded raw materials with +38% and industry with +30%.
At the same time, the marginal was the majority of the shares that made up Midcap that recorded profits (11 out of 20) in June, with the highest number of IPTOs (+17%), PPA (+13%) and Kri (+13%). On the other hand, with losses 9 shares were closed, with the most important being Intracom (-11%), Ideal (-10%) and Quest (-8%). However, in the first half Midcap’s shares gained significant profits, with Cree (+60%), Austriacard (+60%) and IPTO (+53%) standing out.
Euronext Athens' average daily transaction value in June amounted to 300m euros, with an increase of 46% compared to June 2025, a reduced 12% compared to May 2026, while Euronext Athens' average daily transaction value for the first half of 2026 reached 341m euros, an increased 72% compared to the first half of 2025!
Technology, communications and consumption lead to higher S&P 500
According to the converging market estimates (Factset), the S&P 500 indicator is expected to record an increase of 21.2% over the next 12 months, as shown by the target prices estimates for the 500 companies of that indicator. More specifically, on 25 June 2026 the overall estimate was set at 8,918,27 units, against closing the index at 7,357,49 units, which implies an expected margin of up to 21,2%.
At sector level, market estimates refer to an increase in all 11 sectors, with the highest expected yields presented by communication services with +32.4%, broad consumption products (Consumer Discretionary) with +26.6% and technology with +26.5%. On the contrary, estimates of the smaller rise concern industry sectors with +10.2% and real estate with +10.5%.
At individual stock level, it is worth noting that market estimates for Intel and Sandisk Corporation refer to a target price at $100 and $1,702 respectively, while their shares negotiate around $133 and $2,335 respectively. The target values are 25% and 27%, respectively, a sample of the strong momentum of technological shares.
In conclusion, from 31 March to 25 June the target value for S&P 500 was increased by 7.0%, from 8.333 to 8.918 units, with this review reflecting the significant improvement in corporate profit estimates.
Finally, what remains to be seen is whether the company profit estimates will be verified and then the target value for the S&P 500 indicator in the next 12 months!
Agenda (7 – 12/7/2026)
At the heart of the consumer price index on Thursday
The Tuesday Lamda Development is expected to announce financial results first quarter 2026.
The Wednesday Cree has convened a regular c.p., while a 13-week EGE auction will be held (previously a 2.01% yield).
The Thursday ELVALHALKOR has convened an extraordinary G.S. with the main theme of A.M., Centric has convened a regular G.S., the period of negotiation of the right to participate in the M.M.M. of Wood Trade expires, while ELSTAT publishes the consumer price index for June.
"Preheating" for financial results communications 2nd quarter
The Tuesday industrial production is announced for May in Germany.
The Thursday At dawn, the index of consumer and producer prices is announced for June in China, while at 15.00 a.m. sales of second-hand dwellings for June in the USA are shown. Financial results are published by PepsiCo.
The Friday The consumer price index is announced for June in Germany, while Delta Air Lines publishes financial results.
* Demosthenes Triangle is a Certified Share & Market Analyst BETA Exchange – dtrigas@beta.gr
** Republished by the newspaper Chapter
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