The Apostle Manthus
Industry Lottery and gaming acquires a strong print on Euronext Athens, as the Allwyn and Bally’s Intralot They now concentrate a capitalization of the order of EUR 12.6 billion, representing 8.3% of the market.
Allwyn (ALWN) enters longer range orbit, with 2025 setting the base and 2026 highlighting the full size. The merger with OPAP and penetration in the US through PrizePicks They rearrange the group's footprint, creating a shape with increased size, expanded geographical presence and different risk characteristics.
At size level, Allwyn recorded for 2025 net revenues of EUR 4,112 billion and adjusted EBITDA EUR 1,584 billion, with a margin of 39%. Development was mainly based on digital channels, which now correspond to a significant proportion of revenue, while the contribution of key markets in Europe was positive. The lottery industry remained a key profitability pillar, with support through online activity.
In parallel orbit, OPAP for 2025 recorded net revenue on a new historical high, at 2,407.9 billion euros, reinforced by 4.9% on an annual basis, with the contribution coming from both retail and online channels. At operating line level, EBITDA moved to EUR 836,6 million on a recurring basis, influenced by the increase in operating costs, mainly linked to investments in marketing and strengthening digital activity. The net profits on a recurring basis amounted to EUR 496,1 million, maintaining overall profitability at high levels.
The move that changes the scale is the acquisition of 62.3% of PrizePicks over $1.5 billion. The company recorded for 2025 39% revenue increase and adjusted EBITDA 321m euros, offering Allwyn direct exposure to a market with high growth rates. Since 2026, the presence in North America is expected to be based mainly on this activity.
The full integration of the OPAP, the acquisition of Stoiximan's balance and the strengthening of the share base create a unified scheme with an estimated EBITDA capacity of EUR 1.9 billion. At the same time, the distribution policy with a minimum dividend of EUR 1 per share is maintained, which continues to be a key benchmark for the investment base.
According to Eurobank Equities, the complete integration of PrizePicks leads to revenue towards EUR 5.2 billion in 2026, with EBITDA approaching EUR 1.9 billion and the net profits are shaped around EUR 501 million. Over the medium term, organic growth is estimated at 6%-7%, with a gradual increase in profitability.
The investment equation has now changed. The new scheme combines high cash flow output with increased investment needs and greater balance sheet complexity. Cash flows are expected to show pressure in 2026 due to acquisitions and licenses, with gradual normalisation in the coming years. From a grammatical point of view, the share appears to have lost its significant support EUR 14, opening the field for the next strong support in EUR 12,60 to EUR 12. But a confirmed grab of EUR 14,60 will give ground for EUR 16,30.
Bally’s Intralot (BYLOT) raises the bar of expectationsWith 2025 bringing its new dimension to the fore. At the level of published sizes, the group recorded revenues of EUR 518.0 million, increased by 34.8%, with the custom EBITDA shaped in EUR 183.5 million, reinforced by 40.4%. The margin moved to 35,4%, with apparent improvement in operational efficiency. Bally’s International Interactive unification in the fourth quarter added EUR 167,1 million revenue and EUR 67,0 million EBITDA, with a margin exceeding 40%.
On a pro-forma basis, which reflects the full range of the consolidated organisation, revenue amounts to EUR 1,086 billion and EBITDA in EUR 430,8 million, with margin 39,7%. These figures give the actual benchmark for the valuation of the group from now on.
The substantial change is in the business model. Bally’s Intralot is moved from an organization with an emphasis on services to third parties in a hybrid scheme with a strong presence in the final customer. The B2C sector was strengthened by 162% and now corresponds to 47% of revenue, upgrading profitability dynamics and growth potential. At the same time, the B2B sector moved lower, reflecting the shift in activity weight.
At the liquidity level, the cash flow was adjusted to EUR 246,7 million, while the adjusted net lending rose to EUR 1,49 billion, with a leverage ratio 3,46 times in pro format base. The increase in lending is linked to the financing of the acquisition, with the administration now focusing on gradual de-escalation through strong operating flows, which have been reinforced by 45,8%.
The first indications since 2026 move in a positive direction. On the British market the online segment recorded a rise 11,1% in the first two months, despite increasing taxation in online casino in 40%. The management aims to further strengthen shares in markets where competition is pressed.
At the same time, the expansion strategy acquires more aggressive features. The possible acquisition of Evoke, at a price of approximately UKL 225 million and up to and including 18 May, aims to strengthen presence in the United Kingdom by using a network with strong recognition in a market where increased taxation limits smaller players. In Australia, the new 15-year leave in Victoria, with effect from 2027, covers more than 26,300 toys and includes the Melbourne casino, offering long-term revenue stability.
The scale increase, strengthening the online arm and entering new markets create prospects for growth, subject to discipline in balance sheet management and the exploitation of synergies already in place. Figures, the share after 65 days passed up the 1,01 euro resistance, showing a willingness to pass over the limit of EUR 1,10. Over there opens the field for EUR 1,20.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
*** Republished by the newspaper Chapter.
