The Freedom Curtalis
Investors' attention remains firmly focused on the war in the Middle East and on the prolonged closure of the Straits of Hormuz, which presupposes greater inflationary pressures and has significantly changed the perception of markets.
International markets, however, move with remarkable calm, overcoming the ominous scenarios that refer to stagnation for the global economy. Either because they underestimate geopolitical risk, or because they adopt the optimistic development scenario with the Middle East agreement to be imminent, or because high liquidity conditions in the markets allow for the continuation of investment movements of increased investment risk.
However, the war has already significantly affected the investment climate and seems to have overturned the notion that Trump policies will drive many portfolios away from the US and towards Europe, and this clearly affects the Greek market.
In particular, according to Bank of America's new survey, investors appear more cautious about the prospects of the European economy. 32% estimates that growth in Europe will slow down in the coming months, and this is the highest level recorded in a relevant BofA survey since October 2024.
The course of oil prices is of particular concern. 71% of investors estimate Brent to remain over $80 a barrel by the end of the year, strengthening fears of a new wave of inflation. About 70% predicts higher structural inflation in the next 12 months both in Europe and worldwide, while stagnation is a key economic scenario.
This climate has led to an intense transfer of funds from Europeans to American shares. 20% of investors now declare overweight in American shares, while European market positions have declined significantly. This is one of the steepest movements of capital from Europe to the US since 1999. However, 58% still see potential for rising for the next 12 months, although this is the lowest level of optimism since April 2025.
Catalytes for Euronext Athens
In this context, Euronext Athens monitors international markets and awaits the trigger for the new upward movement.
As Dimitris Tzanas, Managing Director of the AHEPA cycle, notes, there are many positive ones that with the help of the international climate the Greek market will be able to capitalize. In these it places the positive reports for Greek banks, the forecasts for continuing the overperformance of Greece's growth, the positive performance of companies in the first quarter and the acquisition of Austrian Card with a surprise price. More importantly, PPC's 4 billion AMK, which recorded a spectacular coverage.
As a result, as the analyst notes, the General Index seeks its support as the present data do not allow its timing with European indicators, while Moody’s Analytics considers that the baseline scenario in relation to election time (the second quarter of 2027) is not the only one, with the political risk likely in its scripts.
According to Ilias Zachaki of Fast Finance, Greek quotes have to give news in the following period. We may be in an election period, which certainly is a minor problem for psychology, yet there is no fear of a return to the past and to ungovernment. The political scene warms up day by day, with the toxicity making its appearance largely. Technically, the General Index needs a convincing assurance of the level of 2,300-2,320 units, if it wants to gain a significant trend and try the high year again.
However, after the completion of PPC's very successful capital increase, the Greek market is expected, if conditions permit, to reflect the strong message of this process. The prospective quotes are a magnet for investors. Analysts estimate that gradually the liquidity committed for PPC will be channeled into the market. After all, the accumulation of the General Index observed during the period prior to the PMC reflects exactly this waiting position until the process begins. It is now behind us, so this will release funds that had been held aside.
Development – fiscal, the great weapons of the Greek market
In Euronext Athens' large weapons, as domestic and international analysts sign, are the resilience of the economy and the country's very good fiscal image.
The government as well as analysts still expect Greece to overturn the Eurozone in all the energy price scenarios designed, with the development for 2026 being formed close to 2%, perhaps even slightly lower (at 1.8% in the Commission), slowing only moderate under more unfavourable oil prices. While inflation is expected to remain somewhat above the EU average, authorities have largely interpreted this as a consequence of stronger domestic demand, the final stage of absorption of RRFs and Greece's wider energy mix still based on fossil fuels, rather than as signs of macroeconomic imbalance. The message is that Greece entered the current geopolitical shock from a position of relative power, supported by fiscal surpluses, durable bank lending, strong inputs of foreign direct investment and improved labour market dynamics.
It is worth noting, however, that Fitch has lowered its assessment of Greece's growth this year to 1.7%, in a more detailed and up-to-date analysis of the evaluation published on 8 May, when it kept the country's ratings at BBB stable. Before the war in Iran, the house placed growth this year at 2%. As he explains, the gentle slowdown he predicts is mainly due to the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East, but the economy will benefit from the last year of the Recovery Fund. In the medium term it expects that gradual convergence towards the level of income of the Eurozone will continue, based on an estimated potential growth rate of 2%. At the same time, Fitch maintained its appreciation for inflation this year at 3.1% as for the debt ratio, which it puts at 139.4% of GDP, while estimates that 2030 will reach 118% of GDP. As regards the primary surplus, it places it at 3.8% of GDP this year and 3.6% in 2027.
With regard to the shock in the Middle East, however, Wood, although optimistic about Greece, remains somewhat cautious. Although Greece is among the countries best placed to withstand the shock, in its view (compared with other external energy-dependent economies, such as Turkey, or small open economies, with great reliance on the global macroeconomic environment such as those of Central and Eastern Europe), the house still believes that Greece could be seriously affected, especially in terms of tourism flows.
Banks remain on investor radar
The image from the first quarter of the Greek systemic banks shows resilience, satisfactory execution of business plans and agreement with the initial guidelines for the year. The credit expansion continued, as did the strengthening of profitability. According to Beta Securities data, the net profitability of the four systemic banks was maintained over EUR 1 billion for the fifth consecutive quarter, as it reached EUR 1,063 billion, aligned with the estimates of analysts and administrations for the whole year. Interest revenue increased to +1.9% compared to the first quarter of 2025, while commissions are increased by 23%.
The valuations of Greek banks remain attractive, according to analysts, with recent reports of international households repeating their positive attitude towards the industry and optimistic prospects.
In particular, HSBC stressed that Greek banks remain attractive, as they continue to negotiate with 15% discount in terms of P/E against the banks of the Central and Eastern European, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), despite offering dividend returns up to 7%.
The British bank estimates that profitability in 2026 and 2027 will be strengthened, while waiting for a rise in net interest income as well as distributions to shareholders, considering that in the second half of 2026 the ECB will increase interest rates of 75 basis points.
Σε αυτό το πλαίσιο διατηρεί σύσταση “αγοράς” και για τις τέσσερις συστημικές τράπεζες, Alpha Bank, Eurobank, Εθνική Τράπεζα και Τράπεζα Πειραιώς, με την Εθνική και την Πειραιώς να αποτελούν ωστόσο τις κορυφαίες επιλογές της. Και αυτό διότι θεωρεί ότι επωφελούνται περισσότερο από το νέο περιβάλλον επιτοκίων. Ο αντίκτυπος μιας αύξησης επιτοκίων κατά 25 μονάδες βάσης στο καθαρό επιτοκιακό περιθώριο είναι σχεδόν διπλάσιος σε σχέση με την Alpha Bank και την Eurobank, όπως εξηγεί.
Δεδομένων των προσδοκιών της για τη νομισματική πολιτική, η HSBC ανεβάζει τις εκτιμήσεις της για τα καθαρά έσοδα από τόκους των ελληνικών τραπεζών κατά 2% για το 2026 και κατά 4% για το 2027 σε μέσο όρο, ενώ αυξάνει τις εκτιμήσεις της και για τα κέρδη ανά μετοχή, κατά 3% σε μέσο όρο για το 2026 και κατά 5% για το 2027.
Έτσι, διατηρεί τη σύσταση “buy” για τις τέσσερις συστημικές τράπεζες με τις τιμές-στόχους να διαμορφώνονται στα 4,80 ευρώ, από 4,70 ευρώ πριν για την Eurobank, για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς στα 12,10 ευρώ, από 11,70 ευρώ πριν, ενώ για την Alpha Bank η τιμή-στόχος διατηρείται στα 4,85 ευρώ και για την Εθνική Τράπεζα στα 18,45 ευρώ.
Οι τράπεζες βρέθηκαν και στο επίκεντρο των συναντήσεων με τους επενδυτές στο πρόσφατο συνέδριο της Wood. Η συζήτηση στο πλαίσιο του Greek Retreat τόνισε τον τρόπο με τον οποίο ο ελληνικός τραπεζικός τομέας έχει βελτιωθεί σημαντικά σε σχέση με την περίοδο πριν από την κρίση, με ισχυρότερη κερδοφορία, χαμηλότερα μη εξυπηρετούμενα δάνεια, αξιολογήσεις επενδυτικής βαθμίδας σε όλες τις συστημικές τράπεζες και υψηλότερες διανομές μετοχών, οι οποίες πλέον ευθυγραμμίζονται σε μεγάλο βαθμό με τις αντίστοιχες ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες.
Ο οίκος είχε δημοσιεύσει τις προηγούμενες μέρες νέα έκθεση για τις τράπεζες, ανεβάζοντ τις τιμές-στόχους, συγκεκριμένα: στα 17,80 ευρώ για την Εθνική Τράπεζα, από 13,12 ευρώ πριν, στα 4,90 ευρώ για τη Eurobank, από 3,07 ευρώ πριν, στα 10,30 ευρώ για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς, από 6,96 ευρώ πριν, στα 4,60 ευρώ για την Alpha Bank, από 3,12 ευρώ πριν, στα 11,50 ευρώ για την Optima Bank, από 8,92 ευρώ πριν και στα 11,50 ευρώ για την Τράπεζα Κύπρου, από 9,62 ευρώ πριν.
Η Wood τόνισε πως εξακολουθεί να είναι ιδιαίτερα αισιόδοξη για τον ελληνικό τραπεζικό κλάδο, επειδή πιστεύει ότι η αγορά δεν αποτιμά πλήρως τη διατήρηση της κερδοφορίας. Οι αποτιμήσεις δεν είναι πλέον φθηνές, καθώς διαπραγματεύονται πλέον πολύ πιο κοντά με τις ευρωπαϊκές τράπεζες, χωρίς αυτό να σημαίνει πως δεν είναι ελκυστικές. Στο εξής οι ελληνικές τράπεζες πρέπει να συνεχίσουν να υλοποιούν τις προβλέψεις τους, να δείξουν ότι οι διανομές κεφαλαίου είναι επαναλαμβανόμενες και να αποδείξουν ότι τα ROTE είναι ανθεκτικά, παρά την ομαλοποίηση των επιτοκίων, όπως εκτιμά ο οίκος.
