The Freedom Curtalis
With today's reports Morgan Stanley examines the results of the second quarter of Alpha Bank, Eurobank and National Bank, giving its new forecasts for their size and the course of their shares, following the recent upgrade of the target price and estimates for Piraeus. The results continue to show resilience to loan volumes and net interest revenue and increase in commissions, according to the investment case of the American bank which considers the industry attractive due to strong macroeconomic setting and attractive valuations.
It is noted that the Goldman Sachs followed, raising target values for all four systemics.
Morgan Stanley raises the target price for the National Bank to 17.6 euros because of the higher surplus capital held and the lower cost of own funds CoE, maintaining the establishment of equal-weight, following the results of the first half.
It considers the National as the safest way to obtain exposure in Greece as it has a high CET1 ratio, high liquidity indicators, low loan index to deposits, low NPE index, high coverage indicators and lower deferred tax requirements. At the same time, the National Bank has already invested twice as much as its counterparts in technology to replace its core banking system.
Morgan Stanley sees the EIB distribute 21% of capitalisation over the next 3 years (via payout 66%), maintaining 0.7 billion euros of surplus capital that may be invested in mergers and acquisitions.
In the view of the house, the development of the Greek economy is strong and somewhat protected in the coming years, which makes it lean towards cheaper banks with higher beta in Greece, which is why the recommendation is equal-weight.
However, MS upgrades its estimates of the net profits of the EIB in 2026, as it raises the provisions for net interest income by 1%, while upgrading the earnings from remuneration in 2027-28. It also expects that the profits per share (EPS) for 2026 will be set at 1.43 euros, while the CET1 index will be reduced to 17% at the end of the year, as higher volumes increase RWA. Taking into account the payout 65% in 2026-27 and 70% in 2028, it sees that the CET1 index will be reduced to 15.7%, according to targets. In its estimates Morgan Stanley, we add an AT1 issue of EUR 0.5 billion in 2027, leading to an increase in coupons by around EUR 30 million, but also to a lower minimum CET1 index, which will be reduced to 13% from 14%.
It estimates that the EIB's share will be traded in P/E under 9x in 2028 and 1.9x P/TE for 18% ROTE adjusted for surplus funds. Therefore, the valuation (with 10% premium P/E against the rest of the Greek banks) already reflects this quality somewhat. The next catalyst for the share could be a way of increasing profits per share (EPS) to develop surplus funds or actions aimed at emerging stocks (e.g. lower CoR, higher CET1 and higher distribution). Meanwhile, we prefer cheaper and higher beta names and maintain equal gravity in the National Bank. The target value was moved to EUR 17.6 with higher surplus capital and lower CoE.
As regards Alpha Bank, Morgan Stanley upgrades the target price from EUR 4.8 to EUR 5 because of the highest EPS, dividends and funds, maintaining the overweight attitude. At the same time, it detects the "triggers" Alpha could use to surprise the market during the November Investor Day.
What he expects from Investor Day:
– About 4-5% higher profits per share than estimates due to better revenue from commissions and risk costs. It expects revenue from 2–5% higher than estimates as it incorporates announced mergers and acquisitions, adding revenue from commissions of around 65m euros in 2028. It estimates the risk costs of CoR at 40 μb versus 45 μb in forecasts, thanks to lower organic CoR and lower SRT and service costs. Morgan Stanley continues to incorporate interest rate increases of 50 p.b. in the 9 month of 2026 and interest rate reductions of 50 p.m. in the second half of 2027 (according to its economists' view of the ECB attitude) and customer spread compression of 10 p.m. annually, which leads to her expecting 2% higher net profits per share in 2027 than estimates
– About EUR 0,1 billion further deletion of deferred tax claims. According to Morgan Stanley's predictions, Alpha did write-up EUR 120 million DTA in the second quarter of 2026. In early 2026, the bank had EUR 0.5 billion of DTA off-balance sheet (150 mb CET1), of which EUR 0.25 billion expires in 2026 and EUR 0.2 billion expire in 2027. With the business plan it sees further margins for EUR 0,1 billion further deletion of DTA (25 m b CET1).
– Increase in payout while CET1 remains above 14.5% in 2026-2028. The results of the second quarter suggest an increasing payout ratio in 2025-27, as he points out.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Alpha Bank will negotiate with P/E for 2028 at 7.5x and 1.3x P/TE for 14.5% ROTE, excluding surplus capital. We see the business plan as a positive catalyst and the current share price and therefore increases the target value.
For Eurobank, the target price is maintained at EUR 4,90 with an overweight recommendation. As Morgan Stanley notes, Eurobank was the only Greek bank to significantly upgrade the target of raising loans in 2026 (+18%).
Εκτιμά πως οι μετοχές της θα κινηθούν με P/E 8x το 2028 και 1,8x P/TE για 18% ROTE, προσαρμοσμένο για πλεονάζον κεφάλαιο. Στα επόμενα 3 χρόνια εκτιμά ότι η Eurobank θα προσφέρει 24% αύξηση μερισματικής απόδοσης σε μέσο όρο ετησίως και 11% EPS, πολύ πάνω από το guidance. Αναγνωρίζει πάντως την απουσία καταλύτη αυτή τη στιγμή που θα ενεργοποιεί ένα re-rating, ωστόσο πιστεύει ότι η τράπεζα θα ξεπεράσει τις εκτιμήσεις της αγοράς και τους στόχους, θα επιτύχει κορυφαία επίπεδα στον ευρωπαϊκό τραπεζικό τομέα σε όρους EPS και μερισματικής απόδοσης, ενώ θα διαπραγματεύεται με discount άνω του 10% σε όρους P/E σε σχέση με τις τράπεζες της ΕΕ.
Πάντως η Morgan Stanley μειώνει τις εκτιμήσεις της για τα κέρδη ανά μετοχή κατά 2% για το 2026 λόγω της χαμηλότερης συνεισφοράς της Eurolife Life, δεδομένων των καθυστερήσεων στην ολοκλήρωση. Αναβαθμίζει τα EPS του 2027 κατά 3% λόγω των NII και του χαμηλότερου κόστους κινδύνου CoR. Επίσης οι εκτιμήσεις της για τα κέρδη του 2027 είναι 5% πάνω από αυτές της αγοράς και 2% για τα κέρδη του 2028, λόγω των υψηλότερων NII (3%), προμηθειών (4-5%) και του ελαφρώς χαμηλότεροι CoR.
Παράλληλα επισημαίνει πως ο δείκτης CET1 στο 14,2% στο τέλος του έτους συνεπάγεται -120 μονάδες βάσης από τη Eurolife Life και την ουδέτερη παραγωγή οργανικού κεφαλαίου με απόδοση 55%. Βλέπει τον CET1 στο 14,4% το 2027-28 με payout 60% kai αύξηση RWA 6%.
Tέλος, όσον αφορά την Τράπεζα Πειραιώς, η Morgan Stanley είχε αυξήσει πριν μερικές ημέρες την τιμή στόχο στα 11,50 ευρώ από 11,30 ευρώ πριν διατηρώντας τη σύσταση overweight.
Κατά τον οίκο, η Πειραιώς είναι ένα καθαρό trade της Ελλάδας με διαφοροποιημένο επιχειρηματικό μοντέλο που εκτείνεται από την παραδοσιακή εμπορική τραπεζική στις ασφάλειες και διαχείριση περιουσιακών στοιχείων, με ισχυρή ευαισθησίας στα επιτόκια. Βλέπει την ισχυρή καταθετική βάση ικανή να εξυπηρετεί μεγαλύτερη αύξηση δανείων από τις εκτιμήσεις δεδομένου του χαμηλού δείκτη δανείων προς καταθέσεις. Η μετοχή της διαπραγματεύεται με P/E στο 8x για το 2028 για 17% RoTE και η Morgan Stanley πιστεύει ότι η αποτίμηση παραμένει συναρπαστική όμως δεν είναι πλέον ιδιαίτερα φτηνή.
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