The Apostle Manthus
If one wants to read the next chapter of the Greek market accurately, one must return to 1998. Where the size had already acquired substance and where data allows for a real comparison of cycles. According to the figures in the 1998 Annual Report of the Capital Market Commission Under the then Presidency Mr. Stavros Thomadakis, the total capitalisation of the Athens Stock Exchange in December 1998 had reached 24.28 trillion, i.e. around €71.3 billion Of course, I will not mention the capitalisation of the stock market in 1999, where it had hit EUR 210 billion as it is out of the right circular study in economic models.
At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the market had a valuation in €129 billion, translated into a meager climb multiplier just 1.81 times in nearly 28 years. This figure gains particular weight when placed against other markets, because it reveals the big difference in the dynamics of capitalization.
At the same time, the United States market moved from levels about $13–15 trillion in the late 1990s in about $65–70 trillion Today, recording an enlargement near 5xIn France, capitalization from around €1.1 trillion moves today in the area of €3,0–3,3 trillion; i.e. about Three times higher. In Turkey, the market from around $A total of 70 billion at the end of 1998 has now reached the region of $360–400 billion, i.e. also around 5x. Against these sizes, Athens with 1.8x it records a completely different trajectory revealing that in all these years the The Greek market never entered a full cycle of capital expansion.
Part of the explanation is on the way. The market went through a period involving a ten-year crisis, a restructuring of public debt, a strong uncertainty about the country's position in the euro, repeated capital increases in banking houses with very high dilution, extensive deleveraging in businesses and households, and a transfer of the stock market to developing markets. This sequence drastically limited the possibility of creating new capitalization. The market has been operating for decades with the aim of restoration rather than enlargement.
This leads to the basic reading framework for the following years:
So far the market has recovered. From now on the market can multiply by growing.
This transition is based on real size rather than theoretical considerations. In 1998, deposits in the Greek banking system was $18.7 trillion., lower than capitalisation 24,28 trillion, which placed the market relationship to liquidity around 1,30x. Today, with capitalization €129 billion and deposits close to €EUR 210 billion, the same relationship is close to 0.61x. The market is significantly lower than the system's available liquidity.
The comparison between deposits and capitalisation does not, of course, function as a simplistic forecast of flows, but as an indication of the market position within the domestic financial system. In Greece, where the model remains strongly banking-centric, deposits are the main liquidity depot, so the distance between the approximately €210 billion deposits from €121.9 billion capitalization is not neutral at all. On the other hand, it reflects the range of funds not yet directed towards the stock market. The fact that in 1998 this relationship was in 1,30x for the market, while currently moving near 0,61x, shows a shift in behavior and not just a numerical difference.
Deposits will not be moved to the stock exchange as there are alternative positions such as real estate, bonds or external markets, however This distance acts as a potential liquidity reservoir that can be activated gradually. In an environment where company size is improved, capital distribution by listed companies is strengthened and international investors' access is widened, the direction of this liquidity towards the market is a possible development with a real impact on capitalisation.
The importance of this difference is great. If the capitalisation relationship to deposits moves back to 1x, with current levels of deposits, the market leads to the area of €200–210 billion This does not require extreme assumptions. It results from a reposition of funds already in the system. From there on, the prospect of capitalization in the region of €230–260 billion is linked to factors that directly affect market expansion.
Integration at Euronext enhance access to international portfolios and increase the visibility of listed persons. The reclassification in developed market through MSCI changes the investment audience that can be placed in Greece. The increase in free float on large cards creates the possibility for larger placements, while the new imports and Placements expand the market range. At the same time, bank dividends and repurchase programs strengthen the flow of capital to shares. The a combination effect of these factors translates to an increase in capitalisation.
The technical dimension, which is complementary to fundamental analysis, is added to this picture. The General Index moves on 2,277 units; having already regained levels that for years operated as a supply limit. The next zone is located in 2,932 units, corresponding to an increase of approximately +29% from the current levels. Over there, the area of 3,700 units corresponds to a total movement of approximately +62%. These zones coincide with areas where a larger capital participation is historically activated.
Here changes the size as the Greek market enters a period where the variables that determine capitalization operate in the same direction. The economy shows growth rates higher than the European average, foreign investors' participation remains increased, while improving corporate size creates a basis for higher valuations. In this context, the comparison with 1998 is of particular importance because it shows that the market has not yet fully reflected the country's new economic size.
The Greek market for nearly three decades moved to return. Now he begins to claim space on a larger scale. And that shift is what gives room for acceleration of capitalization over the next few years.
That's why. . "Don't move away — now begins the real market expansion cycle"
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
