The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran talks keeps energy prices high – Brent at 106 dollars.
( upd12) With changes in the name moves the Greek stock exchange, at 2,265 units, with strong volatility in banks, with Eurobank -1.5%, while the image of non-bank blue chips is mixed, with PPC -2%, with low transactions.
TheUS-Iran diplomatic efforts to reach a peace agreement in the Middle East through Pakistani mediators are central. TheBoth sides argue that some progress has been made and that the gap is decreasing, significant disagreements remain on critical issues such as enriched uranium and the safety of the Straits of Hormuz.
Typical is the statement by the American State Secretary, Marco Rubio, that there are «good signs in the conversations»At the same time the Guardians of Iran's Revolution warn that «Time is on our side»At the same time, U.S. intelligence reports that Iranians managed to regroup their army faster than expected during the truce period, maintaining a high level of tension in the region.
The deadlock in talks means that US and Iran remain «with finger on the trigger», with the risk of military conflict at any time. Tehran has the ability, with only one strategic move without the use of weapons, to cause turbulence not only in the region but also in the global economy.
Although signs of diplomatic progress appear, markets remain nervous, as tension can launch energy prices, revive inflation, and create serious risks to the global economy.
In this context, oil prices recover, with July contracts for Brent being boosted +2,6% to $ 105.25 the barrel, while the June contracts for the American WTI record a rise of +2.2% to $98.50 per barrel.
At a technical level, the General Index was re-returned from the basic support of 2,200 units, with the first significant resistance being located in the 2,300 unit area, a level that will determine the continuation of the short-term upward trend.
In detail, In banks, Eurobank -1.5% and Piraeus -0.30% from -2,59% low day, while uphill trying National +0.70% and Alpha Bank +0.60%.
Rise +1.5% records CrediaBank following the impressive improvement in profitability achieved in the first quarter 2026, with the net result being EUR 7,821 million compared to EUR 108 thousand in the corresponding period of 2025.
With the inclusion of the interim profitability of the first quarter, CET1, TIER1 and total capital adequacy (TCR) indicators were set at 10.19%, 12.48% and 16.02% respectively. On a pro-forma basis and following the completion of the 300m-euro share capital increase on 7 April 2026, these indicators are estimated at 16.6%, 18.9% and 22.4%, significantly enhancing the capital position and resilience of the bank.
In non-bank blue chips, Upward moving Aegean + 2.3%, Cenergy + 1.4%, Metlen + 1%... while retreating ELPE -2.8%, PPC -2%, Allwyn -1.5%....
Today 22/5 will be the restructuring of FTSE Russell indicators, the quarterly review, with rebalancing taking place on Friday 19/6.
The following is the rebalancing of MSCI indicators at the closing of Friday's May 29 meeting.
It is recalled that according to the restructuring of MSCI of 12/5/2026, the MSCI Standard Grece index introduced the share of the GEK More than that indicator includes 9 shares: National Bank, Piraeus, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, PPC, OTE, Jumbo, Allwyn, GEK Terna.
At the same time, the shares of CrediaBank were added to Small Cap, while Cenergy and GEK Terna were removed.
Micro Cap has not been changed for Greek shares.
The progress of the Greek stock market in today's meeting
The stock market with the General Index +0.37% and the Banking Index at +0.81% began up.
THE General Index on the Greek stock exchange moves by falling -0.02% to 2,265 units, having a high of 2,278.26 units and low of 2,259.53 units.
The turnover and volume of transactions at low levels and is divided into banks and non-bank blue chips. .
More specifically, the transaction value is EUR 113 million, of which EUR 13,2 million in packages, the volume of 19 million of which 8 million is moved to banks.
Selected transactions worth 13.27m euros and a volume of 4.21m pieces were made on the Greek stock exchange.
In detail, Alpha Bank moved 548.3 thousand pieces worth 1.95 million euros, Eurobank 300 thousand pieces worth 1.1 million euros, Piraeus 220 thousand pieces worth 1.86 million euros, Tr. Cyprus 264 mm. EUR 2,51 million and Optima Bank 52.5 thousand pieces worth EUR 544.4 million. .
PPC 75.7 thousand pieces worth 1.60m euros and IPTO 250 mm pieces worth 875.5 mm euros. .
Bylot 2.5 million pieces worth EUR 2.85 million.
Technical points
The General Index moves to 2,265 units, first resisting 2,300 units and follows the zone of 2,325–2.350 units, 2,400, 2,450, 2,480 and 2,500 units.
The first support is 2,200 units followed by 2,185, 2,155, 2,135 the simple 200-day CMO, 2,108 units the 200-day exponential CMO, 2,000, 1,950, 1,850 units and 1,650 units in the adverse scenario .
The Banking Index moves at 2,563 units, with the first resistance the 2,680 – 2,700 units zone followed by 2,750, 2,850, 2,900, 2,950 and 3,000 units.
In the first support are the 2.402 units o simple 200-day CMO followed by 2,344 units the 200-day exponential CMO, 2,200, 2,150 and 2,000 units.
Improvement in euro area bonds – To spread with Italy at -4 p.m.
Improvement is recorded in Eurozone bonds, focusing on diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran for a Middle East peace agreement.
The rising energy prices due to the ongoing Middle East war has sparked new fears of inflation and strengthens investors' bets that central banks will proceed with new interest rate increases.
The European Central Bank is estimated to be able to raise interest rates as early as next month (June 10-11) by 25 p.b. to 2.5%, the Bank of England is expected to move on to about two interest rate increases over the year, while the Federal Reserve has increased its chances of increasing interest rates again by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The energy crisis highlighted persistent inflationary pressures, showing that large economies have been having a difficult time bringing inflation back to their goals for years.
The Greek 10-year bond is located at 3.73% and 10-year Italian 3.81% with each other spread at -4 basis points.
Unchangeable American bonds, with 10 years at 4580% and 2 years at 4.09%, with the yield of 10 years remaining higher than the 2 year bond.
Longer-term bonds tend to have higher yields to compensate for the highest risks arising from their market.
The 2025 was a landmark year for the upgrades of Greek debt. As Bankingnews had written, the main cause of the upgrade would clearly be banking stability and growth, banks have become a pillar of stability.
For 2026, the first cycle of ratings opened on Friday, March 6, with the Canadian company DBRS retaining in BBB Greece's long-term credit rating, as expected, without changing the stable prospects for re-evaluation (trend), unchanged was the assessment by Moody’s on 13/3 which retained Greece's long-term credit rating at Baa3, without altering the stable prospects for re-evaluation (outlook).
Similarly, the German Scope kept the assessment unchanged on Friday 20/3.
Waiting stop kept the American house Standard and Poor’s on 24/4, with its rating remaining in «BBB» with stable prospects.
Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings, on 8/5/2026, maintained in BB the assessment of Greece's long-term credit rating with stable prospects (outlook).
The second round starts on September 4, again with DBRS, while the 18th of September is of particular interest as we will have a double evaluation on the same day by Moody’s and Scope.
The curtain falls on October 23 with S&P and November 6 with Fitch.
It is recalled that 2023 was characterized by Greece's notorious return to the investment tier by an outdated process as we have analysed in detail... the ECB did the job 3 years ago when it decided to buy the Greek bonds then junk bond from the window.
Greece was found informally in a quantitative relaxation program, the notorious Pandemic program without meeting the criteria...
The 2024 we witnessed a vicious process of manipulation by the rating houses where they carried out barrages of upgrades in order for Greece to gain investment.
Investment grade or investment grade in a world of logic would matter but since the extremely distorted quantitative relaxation occurred they have essentially mitigated the value of rating houses.
In 2024 the main incentive to upgrade Greece to an investment level was mainly political.
The credibility of the rating houses is questioned, paid every time they draw up a report and usually to get jobs... sell positive scenarios... but for much of the investors, the rating agencies are calculated.
On the other hand, all this is not very important, since central banks have cancelled the impact of rating houses.
It is noteworthy that out of the 403.86 billion euros of Greek public debt, 105.2 billion euros involved government bonds, 218.8 billion euros in support mechanisms, 8.4 billion euros in interest notes and around 57 billion euros in repos.
At that stage, the Greek public was based to a significant extent on the intra-government loan to manage liquidity, which explained why the repos remained at high levels.
Of the total debt, what was essentially in circulation was around EUR 105 billion of government bonds, as loans to support mechanisms are not negotiable securities. Moreover, already then, a significant part of these bonds was held by the ECB, further limiting the real free market float.
For the2026 the Greek public debt is projected to be 359,3 billion euros or 138,2% of GDP.
However, with the charge from the senior loans under the Katseli Act, it is estimated that it will increase to around 360.3 billion euros, at a time when in 2025 it had reached 362.8 billion euros or 145.9% of GDP, but its structure has not changed radically.
State bonds remain close to EUR 100 billion, loans to support mechanisms remain the bulk of debt, while the reduction in total size is mainly due to the shrinking of short-term and cash liabilities.
In that sense, the upgrading of Greece to an investment level concerns a limited but critical market for securities, not the total public debt. The rating agencies do not repeat the errors of 2008–2009, as the risk they take today is clearly limited, given the institutional structure and the long endings of Greek debt.
Rise in Asian markets
The Asian markets have now closed up 22/5, with investors monitoring diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran to reach a peace agreement in the Middle East.
Tehran's intention to maintain the stock of enriched uranium within the country, according to a Reuters report, may complicate negotiations with Washington, as Donald Trump has set as the central objective of his military campaign against Tehran the dissolution of Iran's nuclear programme.
The increase in the shares of the chips production companies after the strong results of Nvidia was positive.
Markets also assimilated new data from Japan, where consumer prices increased by 1.4% in April compared to the previous year. The rate was slowed by the 1.5% increase observed in March, but remained broadly in line with market expectations.
In detail, the Nikkei index in Japan was closed at +2,68%, Shanghai in China at +1,01%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index at +1,18%, the KOSPI index in New Korea at +0,27% and the S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia at +0,26%.
Increasing trends in European markets
Upward trends are currently recorded 22/5 in European markets, as investors assessed the prospects for significant progress in relations between Iran and the United States, while mediation efforts in Tehran are reportedly intensifying.
Oil prices recover, amid intense nervousness, with the July contracts for Brent, the international reference point, boosted +2,6% to $15,25 a barrel, while the June contracts for the American West Texas Intermediate are rising +2,2% to $98.50 per barrel.
Fall - 2.9% is recorded in gas, with the Dutch contract TTF June at 47.95 euros. .
Interest also focused on the new financial reports.
German consumers' confidence is expected to improve in June, reaching -29.8, with an increase of 3.3 units in relation to the revised May result (-33.1), according to data published today Friday 22/5
Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter, as the Federal Statistical Office of the country (Destatis) revealed in its final report published on Friday, confirming the element of the preliminary assessment. On an annual basis, the German economy increased 0.5% in the first quarter.
Retail sales in the United Kingdom remained unchanged in April compared to the respective month of the previous year, while on a monthly basis, the index dropped 1.3%.
In detail, the Dax index in Germany moves at +0.45%, the CAC index in Paris +0.40%, the FTSE MIB index in Milan +0.45%, the IBEX 35 index in Spain at +0.45% and FTSE 100 in London at +0.30%.
On Wall Street, Dow Jones' futures move to +0.30%, S&P 500 to +0.35% and Nasdaq to +0.40%.
Intense volatility in low-traded banks
Intense volatility is recorded in banks with low transactions.
The National at 14.0750 euros, with an increase of +0.39%, with a volume of 490 thousand pieces and a capitalisation of 12.87 billion euros.
We note that the historic low closure of the National National was noted 11 February 2016 at 0.008 euros before RS or 0.12 euros after reverse split (on 15 old 1 new) while the intra-session low at 0,0066 pre RS or 0.099 after reverse split.
With the new reverse split on 10 old 1 new on 3 September 2018 the historic low closure was adapted to 1.20 euros while the intra-session at 0.99 euros.
It should be noted that the National's new low history took place on 17/3/2020 at 0.8150 euros.
The price of the capital increase of EUR 2,5 billion to EUR 2,20, compared to EUR 4,29 of the 2013 increase while the 2015 MFF was implemented at EUR 0,02 billion before RS or EUR 0,30 after RS.
The National warrant that started at a starting price of 6,823 euros had a last price of 0,0010 euros and was permanently out of negotiation.
The Alpha Bank at 3.553 euros, with an increase of + 0.65% with a volume of 2.2 million pieces and a capitalisation of 8.23 billion euros.
We note that the historic low closure of Alpha Bank is at 1.16 euros or pre RS at 0.0232 euros and occurred on 11 February 2016 (on 50 old 1 new) while the intra-session low at 0.01898 pre RS or 0.949 after reverse split.
Please note that Alpha Bank's new historic low closure took place on 2/11/2020 at 0.4250 euros while the intra-session low at 30/10/2020 at 0.4032 euros.
The price of the 2013 capital increase was EUR 0,44 and of 2014 at EUR 0,65 while the price of the 2015 MFF was EUR 0.04 before the reverse split or EUR 2 after the reverse split.
Alpha Bank's warrant which started at a first starting price of 1.45 euros was found at 0,0010 euros where it now stopped trading.
The Piraeus at 8,4520 euros, with a drop of -0.45% with a volume of 1.8 million pieces and a capitalisation of 10.45 billion euros.
We note that Piraeus's historic low was 11 February 2016 at 0.0008 euros before RS or 0.081 euros after reverse split (at 100 old 1 new) while the intra-session low was 0.00067 pre0 RS or 0.067 euros after RS.
With the new reverse split on 20 old 1 new free in July 2017 the historic low closure was adapted to 1.62 euros while the intra-session at 1.34 euros.
Piraeus' new historic low was held on 14/7/2022 at 0.04303 euros or 0.71 euros after the last reverse split at 16.5 old 1 new (14/4/2021).
The price of the 2013 capital increase was EUR 1,71 and 2014 at EUR 1,70 and the 2015 AFF at EUR 0,003 before reverse split or EUR 0,30 after RS.
Piraeus Warrant which had an initial starting price when it first started at €0.8990 stopped trading and had a final price at €0.0010.
The Eurobank at 3,6720 euros, with a drop of -1,4% with a volume of 2.4 million pieces and a capitalisation of 13,33 billion euros.
The historical intra-session low in Eurobank occurred on 11 February 2016 at 0,002410 euros before RS or 0,2410 euros after RS (at 100 old 1 new).
Its share Bank of Cyprus at 9.46 euros, with an increase of +0.53% and a volume of 60 thousand pieces and a capitalisation of 4.2 billion euros.
The Crediabank στα 1,2680 ευρώ, με άνοδο +1,44% με όγκο 520 χιλ.. τεμάχια και αποτίμηση στα 2,53 δισεκ. ευρώ.
The Optima στα 10,32 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,24%, με όγκο 10 χιλ. τεμάχια και κεφαλαιοποίηση 2,8 δισ. ευρώ.
Its share Bank of Greece στα 14,65 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,35% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 291 εκατ. ευρώ.
Μεικτές τάσεις στα μη τραπεζικά blue chips με χαμηλές συναλλαγές
Μεικτές τάσεις καταγράφονται στα μη τραπεζικά blue chips, με χαμηλές συναλλαγές.
Ανοδικά κινούνται Viohalco, ΕΛΧΑ, Cenergy, Τιτάν …
Στον αντίποδα, υποχωρούν ΕΛΠΕ, ΔΕΗ, Motor Oil, Aktor…
The Coca Cola στα 49,65 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,30% και κεφαλαιοποίηση στα 18,53 δισ. ευρώ και βρίσκεται στην 1η θέση των κεφαλαιοποιήσεων στις μη τραπεζικές μετοχές του FTSE 25.
The Allwyn (ΟΠΑΠ) στα 12,1150 ευρώ, με πτώση -0,49% και αποτίμηση 9,77 δισ. ευρώ και βρίσκεται στη 2η θέση των κεφαλαιοποιήσεων στις μη τραπεζικές μετοχές του FTSE 25.
The PPC στα 20,94 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,97% και αποτίμηση 7,73 δισ. ευρώ, στην 3η θέση των κεφαλαιοποιήσεων στα μη τραπεζικά blue chips.
THE OTE στα 18,68 ευρώ, με πτώση -0,11% και αποτίμηση 7,54 δισ. ευρώ και βρίσκεται στη 4η θέση των κεφαλαιοποιήσεων.
The Metlen στα 38,12 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,42% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 5,45 δισ. ευρώ.
The Viohalco στα 19,26 ευρώ, με άνοδο +1,26% και κεφαλαιοποίηση στα 4,99 δισ. ευρώ.
The ΓΕΚ Τέρνα στα 40,20 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,30% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 4,16 δισ. ευρώ.
Its share Motor Oil στα 34,94 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,02% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 3,87 δισ. ευρώ.
THE Titan Cement International στα 47,20 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,43% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 3,70 δισ. ευρώ.
Η μετοχή των HOPE στα 9,9150 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,83% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 3,03 δισ. ευρώ.
Its share Jumbo στα 22,24 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,36% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 2,99 δισ. ευρώ.
THE Aktor στα 10,12 ευρώ, με πτώση -1,17% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 2,06 δισ. ευρώ.
The EYDP στα 10,32 ευρώ, με άνοδο +0,39% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 1,10 δισ. ευρώ.
The MIG (που είναι εκτός FTSE 25) στα 3,23 ευρώ, με πτώση -0,62% και κεφαλαιοποίηση 101 εκατ. ευρώ.
Αγορές στα ομόλογα της Ευρωζώνης – To spread με την Γερμανία στις 66 μονάδες βάσης
Αγορές καταγράφονται σήμερα 22/5 στα ομόλογα της Ευρωζώνης.
Το ελληνικό 10ετές ομόλογο βρίσκεται στο 3,73% και το 10ετές ιταλικό 3,81% με το μεταξύ τους spread στις -4 μονάδες βάσης.
Το spread η διαφορά απόδοσης μεταξύ ελληνικών 10 ετών και γερμανικών ομολόγων διαμορφώνεται στις 66 μονάδες βάσης.
Το ελληνικό CDS στο 5ετές που αποτελεί και το benchmark, σήμερα διαμορφώνεται στις 30 μονάδες βάσης.
Ως μέτρο σύγκρισης αναφέρεται ότι το CDS της Αργεντινής βρίσκεται στις 1.030 μονάδες βάσης.
Θυμίζουμε ότι τα επίπεδα ρεκόρ μετά το PSI+ στην Ελλάδα σημειώθηκαν στις 8 Ιουλίου του 2015 στις 8700 μ.β.
Το CDS δουλεύει ως εξής….
Για κάθε 10 εκατ δολάρια έκθεση σε ελληνικό χρέος, ένας επενδυτής που θέλει να αντισταθμίσει τον κίνδυνο χώρας αγοράζει ένα παράγωγο το CDS και πληρώνει π.χ. για την Ελλάδα σήμερα απόδοση 0,30% ή 300 χιλ. δολάρια ασφάλιστρο ανά 10 εκατ δολ. επενδυτική θέση στο ελληνικό χρέος.
Το spread Ελλάδος – Ιταλίας βρίσκεται στις -4 μονάδες βάσης.
Το spread Ελλάδος – Πορτογαλίας βρίσκεται στις 29 μονάδες βάσης.
Βελτίωση στα ομόλογα της Ευρωζώνης
Βελτίωση καταγράφεται σήμερα 22/5 στα ομόλογα της Ευρωζώνης.
Το Ιταλικό 10ετές διαμορφώνεται σήμερα 22 Μαίου του 2026 στο 3,81%.
Το 10ετές γερμανικό ομόλογο βρίσκεται σήμερα 22/5/2026 στο 3,07%.
Οι αποδόσεις των ευρωπαϊκών ομολόγων διαμορφώνονται ως εξής….
Η Ιρλανδική 10ετία λήξης 2028 εμφανίζει απόδοση στο 3,27% με το ιστορικό χαμηλό -0,333% σημειώθηκε στις 15 Δεκεμβρίου 2020.
Το 10ετές Πορτογαλικό ομόλογο λήξης Οκτωβρίου 2028 έχει απόδοση 3,44% με ιστορικό χαμηλό στο -0,062% που σημειώθηκε στις 15 Δεκεμβρίου 2020.
The Ισπανικό 10ετές έχει απόδοση 3,50% με το ιστορικό χαμηλό στο -0,02% που σημειώθηκε στις 16 Δεκεμβρίου 2020.
In Italy το 10ετές ομόλογο λήξης 1η Αυγούστου του 2029 έχει απόδοση 3,81% και με ιστορικό χαμηλό 0,4260% στις 12 Φεβρουαρίου του 2021.
Αξίζει να αναφερθεί ότι η Cyprus έκδωσε 10ετές ομόλογο με επιτόκιο 2,25% και η τρέχουσα απόδοση του είναι 3,57%.
Το ιστορικό χαμηλό σημειώθηκε στις 15 Δεκεμβρίου 2020 στο 0,088%.
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