Since the beginning of the 1990s, Germany has been by far the largest economy in the European Union and since 2002 and the Eurozone. According to Eurostat data, in 2025 German GDP accounted for 25.99% of the Eurozone GDP and 21.27% of that of the European Union and was 42.65% greater than that of France, 70.15% greater than Italy and 130.24% greater than Spain. It is obvious that it is the dominant European economy and it is reasonable to overly influence the economic performance of the whole EU. and, even more, the Eurozone.
When the German economic machine is working efficiently, the rest of the European Union also benefits and when things are not going well, it is also paid by the others. For many years after German reunification, the heavy burden of the absorption of former East Germany has kept German growth very low and for years Germany has been called by the rest of the Europeans «Europe's big patient». Things have changed gradually and since the mid-2000s the German machine began working very well and pulling up and the rest of Europe.
But the times are filming and, as can be seen from official statistics, the German economic and industrial locomotive has again given way to an anaemic economy that is unable to develop, keeping low and European growth. Looking at Eurostat's data this seems very clear. In 2025 EU GDP increased by 1.2% compared to the previous year, that of the Eurozone by 1% and that of Germany by just 0.20%. In 2024 the respective rates were 1.4%, 1.2% and (-0.5%), i.e. the German economy had shrunk over 2023. In 2023 we are at 0.4%, 0.4% and (-0.9%), which is again shrinking. In 2022 the GDP of the European Union had increased by 3.6%, the Eurozone by 3.7% and Germany by 1.8%.
Germany's lag was clear and in 2021 it was a year of impressive growth everywhere as global economies recovered after Covid – 19, since the GDP of the European Union and the Eurozone grew by 6.4% and that of Germany was only 3.9%. A more careful study of the above evidence shows that the German economy started to run out of fuel gradually from the mid-2010s and clearly from 2018 onwards, as since then only one year later Germany's growth was higher than the total European.
The 2018 report was not accidental, as the downward course of industrial production in Germany has since begun, which we had seen before (Germany: Economic difficulties bring conflict with China | Liberal. gr) referring to an article by Pierre Briancon of Reuters Breakingviews. French columnist Reuters Breakingviews had dealt with the German economy and last April, with a rather pessimistic and critical article that was titled «Germany sleeps towards a permanent stagnation».
Briancon then pointed out that after 6 years of economic stagnation the forecasts for the development of 2026 and 2027 were still talking about a very small recovery. These forecasts even became more pessimistic after the outbreak of the Middle East war and the new increase in energy costs.
But what are Germany's main problems? One very large is China, which from where it was a privileged export destination for German industries as well as a productive base for them, has become its main export competitor around the world. In the automotive sector, German companies have suffered a drop in sales and profits in China at the time when Chinese companies in the sector make a strong landing in Europe. In general, however, China, with its industrial policy which forces all industrial forces in the world and Germany, as one of the top, is already suffering and is threatened even more.
Another major problem is energy costs, which have been very high since Germany voluntarily abandoned nuclear and coal without preparing reliable alternatives for emergencies such as that which has started since 2022. And it is quite burdensome, as for the rest of the European Union, by the very strict rules and restrictions within the framework of «green» European policy. The issue is very serious and even a few days ago, on 27 July, we read in a Bloomberg article that many German companies restrict investment within the country and turn to other countries.
In presenting an annual report on the situation of companies, the chairman of the business organisation DHIK argued that high energy costs are not only burdening current business activities but preventing further investment. Another problem for Germany and indirectly and for the rest of Europe is the low speed of changes and reforms announced by the Murch government, as it is not easy to reach an agreement between government partners.
It is true that in recent weeks some progress has been made, with the state budget plan showing that it will be fiscally expansive and the proposed changes to the pension system judged very positive by the country's business leadership. This sounds positive but no one can be sure that they will be promoted at the necessary speed so that they can quickly help to revive the German industry. And, we add, to benefit the rest of the European economy which has lost momentum to a significant extent and because of German stagnation.
Όσο αυτά καθυστερούν, εκτός από την Γερμανία θα πλήττεται ολόκληρη η Ευρώπη και η ανταγωνιστικότητα της ευρωπαϊκής οικονομίας σε παγκόσμιο επίπεδο. Εκτός αυτών όμως, η Γερμανία θα πρέπει να δει ίσως και λίγο διαφορετικά την συμπεριφορά της απέναντι στους εταίρους της, τουλάχιστον σε ορισμένους τομείς. Η πρόσφατη παρέμβαση του Γερμανού καγκελάριου Μερτς, ο οποίος ζήτησε την περικοπή του προϋπολογισμού της ΕΕ κατά περίπου 2%, δηλαδή μερικές εκατοντάδες δισεκατομμύρια ευρώ, θέτοντας αυτό σαν προϋπόθεση για την ταχεία έγκριση του προϋπολογισμού και την έγκαιρη έναρξη των νέων επενδυτικών προγραμμάτων της ΕΕ τον Ιανουάριο του 2028 δεν είναι σίγουρο πως θα βοηθήσει την ευρωπαϊκή οικονομία.
Ο καγκελάριος υποστηρίζει πως επιθυμεί την γρήγορη έγκριση του νέου επταετούς προϋπολογισμού προκειμένου αυτός να μην πέσει θύμα των πολλών εκλογικών αναμετρήσεων του 2027 αλλά η απαίτησή του για μεγάλες περικοπές στις δαπάνες ίσως μπλέξει τα πράγματα περισσότερο. Οι πληροφορίες του Bloomberg αναφέρουν πως η Ιρλανδική προεδρία της Ε.Ε. θα προσπαθήσει να πετύχει μία συμβιβαστική λύση αλλά αυτό δεν είναι και τόσο εύκολο.
Είναι λοιπόν η Γερμανία και πάλι, μετά από 20 περίπου χρόνια ο μεγάλος ασθενής της Ευρώπης; Από άποψη οικονομικής ανάπτυξης δεν υπάρχει αμφιβολία, όπως είδαμε νωρίτερα. Το ερώτημα είναι αν βλάπτει και την ευρωπαϊκή οικονομία. Και σε αυτό η απάντηση είναι μάλλον θετική καθώς η στασιμότητα σε ένα τόσο μεγάλο κομμάτι του ευρωπαϊκού ΑΕΠ σίγουρα λειτουργεί σαν βαρίδι και για τις υπόλοιπες χώρες. Όσο περισσότερο διαρκεί ο γερμανικός οικονομικός λήθαργος τόσο μεγαλώνει και ο κίνδυνος να κολλήσουν και άλλες χώρες την ίδια ασθένεια. Αν η Γερμανία κατορθώσει γρήγορα να βάλει μπροστά τις μεταρρυθμίσεις της, τόσο θα αυξάνονται οι πιθανότητες να απομακρυνθεί αυτός ο κίνδυνος, αρκεί βέβαια η ισχυρότερη χώρα της Ευρώπης να φροντίσει να μην βάζει «τρικλοποδιές» στους εταίρους της.
