The Freedom Curtalis
A history of development in a major discount, which is a huge investment opportunity, characterizes Greek banks and progresses, following many other houses and stock markets, to a significant increase in its target prices, predicting a rally of up to 37% on the Athens Avenue dashboard.
In particular, as stock exchange notes, the prospects for Greek banks remain positive despite increased geopolitical risks. As he points out, he continues to expect that Greek GDP will overpay the rest of the countries in the Eurozone, the Greek banking sector will receive a higher increase in lending compared to the rest of Europe, healthy procurement creation and limited new flows of unperforming exposures (NPE).
In this context, Euroxx points out that it insists on its current forecasts for Greek banks and revises the target prices upwards.
In particular, it maintains an overweight position for all four systemic ones, with the target price for the National Bank rising to EUR 18.8 from EUR 16.3 before and with an increase margin of 25%, for Eurobank increases to EUR 5.3 from EUR 4.8 before an increase margin of 31%, for Piraeus Bank increases to EUR 11 from EUR 9.4 before an increase margin of 30% and for Alpha Bank the target price increases to EUR 5.2 from EUR 4.3 before an increase margin of 37%.
At the same time, it sees a strong composite annual growth rate of profits per share (EPS) of about 10% for the period 2025–2028 for the sector, with an upward margin in payout indicators. Greek banks negotiate on average with P/E around 9.5x for 2026, with discount compared to European banks ranging from around 10% to about 10%.
Euroxx also estimates that the goals of the business plans of the Greek banks which they presented after the results of the financial year 2025 are feasible. Its forecasts are overall close to the targets with the main assumptions for total revenue: 1) high one-digit loan growth, 2) strong procurement production due to higher lending, asset management and bank collateral, 3) the best in their category cost-income indicators (average 36%) with a 3-year complex growth rate of operating costs of around 5.0%, and 4) risk costs in the range of 40-50 basis points, with the National Bank still below 30 basis points in 2028.
Stock market thus slightly adapted its forecasts for the period 2026–2028. It sees the fair value for Greek banks as around 12x P/E for 2026 (10-15% premium compared to European banks). Its top option remains Eurobank due to attractive regional development, but it also adds Alpha Bank to the top picks in view of the underperformance from the beginning of the year and the attractive relative valuation.
Overall, as Euroxx points out, it remains Bullish for Greek banks expecting strong profitability in the period 2026-28 and sees upward margins in its cases for the distribution index.
