They often ask me, people I don't know, how things are going in the economy. They do it with a certain amount of concern, I admit that it is difficult to give a clear answer, as I am sure they wish. Because the right answer is that the economy is doing better than any other period since we entered the Eurozone, with two major problems.
One problem is that the wages the economy actually offers to employees are lower than those that would require an improvement in the standard of living similar to that we lived for a decade, between 1999 and 2008.
The other problem, which explains the previous one, is that bank and other credit to economic activity, that is, new loans are few, selective and, more generally, are not sufficient to increase individual wealth faster, to add new income to existing ones.
So the answer is that while we're doing well, we don't seem to have the conditions to go any better. But what the country urgently needs is to run for the best. The «We're doing good.»It's not enough. We need to move faster, in more directions, deepening our abilities where we do better.
The government celebrated yesterday - and well done - as the European Commission removed Greece from the list of Member States in which there are macroeconomic imbalances. We were on this list when the fiscal crisis broke out, that is, 15 years ago. Obviously, it is not wrong for the K1 and K2 of the government to underline it triumphantly, but, in practice, the recognition of the efforts made by wage workers, competing enterprises and those others who have had to strain themselves to achieve the budgetary balance does not change the absence of overall dynamism of the economy.
There is also something almost ironic in this Commission decision since the two other countries that came out of the same list are Sweden and the Netherlands, while Italy, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania remain under this surveillance, with the latter facing terrible imbalances.
At the same time as other reports, the Commission adopted the special report on the implementation of the programme. «Deep» Report by and Greece. In going through the observations he makes in this examination, he finds that indeed while we are doing better, we are not doing well enough. Judge yourself from the main outline of the Report:
«The Greek economy is still characterized by high but declining public and foreign debt indicators, while the current account deficit remains high and the restructuring of non-performing loans outside the banking sector remains slow.
Wise fiscal policy and the steady growth in nominal GDP have supported the sharp decline in the debt ratio to GDP in recent years. At the same time, the current account deficit remained high, thus limiting the improvement of the net international investment position (NIIP). The strong recovery after the pandemic was accompanied by a rapid increase in jobs, reducing the unemployment rate to the levels observed before the global financial crisis.
However, both nominal and long-term unemployment rates are among the highest in the EU and the employment rate is much lower than the EU average. The Greek Property Protection Program («Hercules-Red loans») enabled banks to transfer their old non-performing loans (SDRs) and thus improve their balance sheets. However, the resolution of the remaining SDRs —which are now largely managed by servicers— He went slow. Therefore, SDRs are still a brake on the economy.
Overall, thanks to increasing labour participation, increased investment and structural reforms, Greece's growth potential is estimated to have increased further. However, stronger GDP growth would facilitate faster debt reduction as well as a reduction in income gap against the EU».
Είναι αυτό που σας έλεγα: τόσο-όσο, αλλά δεν είναι αρκετό. Αναρωτιέται κανείς αν υπάρχει σχέδιο όταν, σε λίγους μήνες, θα έχουν τελειώσει τα κεφάλαια του Ταμείου Ανάκαμψης (RFF). Δύο διαγράμματα, που συμπεριλαμβάνονται στην «Εις βάθος» Έκθεση υποστηρίζουν αυτόν τον προβληματισμό.
Το ένα (σελ. 13 διάγραμμα b) περιγράφει το βαθμό πολυπλοκότητας των ελληνικών εξαγωγών σε προϊόντα και υπηρεσίες (export complexity). Η χώρα μας βρίσκεται πολύ χαμηλά αν και σημειώνεται βελτίωση. Χρειάζεται πολύ ταχύτερη και μόνον η μεταποίηση, στη βιομηχανία και τον εξαγωγικό αγροτικό τομέα αλλά και η αναβάθμιση του τουριστικού προϊόντος μπορούν να το επιτύχουν.
Το άλλο στοιχείο (σελ. 13 διάγραμμα e) θυμίζει ότι επί δεκαπέντε χρόνια χάνουμε συνεχώς πόντους στην παραγωγικότητα ανά ώρα εργασίας. Και εδώ τα τελευταία χρόνια σημειώνεται βελτίωση, αλλά με βραδύτητα. Χονδρικά, το 2010 είχαμε φθάσει πολύ κοντά στην Ένωση, κυρίως επειδή αξιοποιήσαμε την είσοδο στο ευρώ και το τραπεζικό σύστημα χρηματοδότησε αφειδώς την προσπάθεια. Από τότε όμως άνοιξε μια μεγάλη ψαλίδα, σχεδόν τριάντα μονάδων.
Άρα, όταν συζητούμε για την οικονομία πρέπει να συμφωνήσουμε ότι τα πάντα πρέπει να περιστρέφονται γύρω από την παραγωγή νέου προϊόντος και να ξεχάσουμε τις αναδιανομές και άλλες επιδοτήσεις και κρατικές γαλαντομίες.
Τότε μόνον θα μπορέσουμε να πούμε ότι πάμε αρκετά καλά αλλά σίγουρα θα πάμε καλύτερα.
