The Greek stock market is in front of one of the most interesting points in recent years. After an impressive perennial rise, the General Index now moves into the area of 2,650-2,700 units, having converted a level of prices that would almost be unthinkable a few years ago, into an absolutely realistic goal.
And it's not just the price level of the DG that shows that the Athens Stock Exchange has «change track», but mainly share capital increases, private placements, and business news and deals that have changed the domestic capital market.
The question is therefore different today. It is no longer whether the Greek market can recover from the crisis. This bet has already been won. The real question is whether at 2,700 units, the Athens Stock Exchange remains «buy»If his time has come «sell», or if the most logical option is «hold».
The answer lies somewhere between the optimism of investors, the reports of international houses and the simple stock market reality that no market ever goes up without corrections. But something else, which is currently only true in Greece. In other words, that the Greeks are not yet convinced of everything that is happening at Euronext Athens, they expect the correction that is not coming, so that they do not invest in it. Unlike excessive optimism and stock bet «all in», recorded worldwide.
In early 2026, the General Index was around 2,120 units, having completed in 2025 with a 44% rise, one of the best performance internationally. Today the market is about 25% higher than those levels and has already offered returns that are difficult to meet in a mature market within such a short time.
This does not mean that the market must necessarily fall. On the contrary, it means that the investor who currently buys does not buy Greece in 2022 or 2023. He safely buys a «country» which has recovered the investment tier. An economy with higher growth than the Eurozone average. A banking system that has been transformed into a problem, into a key lever for profitability of the stock market and economic growth. And, above all, a market that is one step ahead of a historic return to the category of developed markets.
The «plus» We measure the market has changed. The «minus» We measure that stock prices are no longer opportunities.
However, the most important medium-term catalyst for the upward split of 2,700 is not a specific bank or another
a certain share, or another new business deal. It's the change in the investment map itself.
MSCI will upgrade Greece from emerging to developed market in May 2027. This is a historical development, as the country had been downgraded in 2013, at the heart of the fiscal crisis. MSCI itself points out that the Greek market now returns with eight titles in the index and capitalisation around ten times the period of degradation.
Thus Greece gradually ceases to be a special bet «recovery» and it becomes a small European market, which will claim a place in the portfolios of international funds on different criteria.
The transition, however, has two sides. The first is positive, since more passive funds will create new inputs. And the second is more complex because exiting emerging market indices means that Greek shares should now compete directly much larger and more demanding European markets.
So it is not certain that the upgrade is an automatic ticket for a continuous rise. But it is an important reason why large foreign houses continue to see the Greek market positively.
JP Morgan has upgraded Greek shares to overweight, while the market is still in the preferred options of large international investment houses. The assessment of the passive inputs that can be generated by integration into European indicators reaches, according to analyses citing JP Morgan's estimates, approximately the $1 billion
At the same time, Goldman Sachs has maintained a positive attitude towards Greek shares, ranking Greece among the most attractive markets in the global investment spectrum it is monitoring.
But beyond this side of «compulsory participation» We have in front of us a market that has ceased to be cheap. But is it expensive?
The crucial question at 2,700 units is not whether the Athens Stock Exchange has risen much. Of course it's up. The question is whether corporate profits have gone up enough to justify new prices and support new valuations.
So here is perhaps the most important difference between today's «bull market» and in previous circles of the Greek Stock Exchange. The rise is not based solely on expectations. It is based on a substantial transformation of corporate profitability. So it's not just a stock market that goes up because «return the foreigners». Since strangers come back because exactly the numbers have changed.
And that is the essence of the battle of 2,700 units. Have stock prices gone higher than profits?
A market can go up for two reasons. The first is because companies' profits are increasing. The second is because investors are willing to pay more for the same profits.
The first case is healthier. The second is clearly more dangerous, but it is often justified. Both happen in Greece.
The corporate profits of listed companies have grown spectacularly. At the same time, however, investor confidence has also increased. So the increase in valuation indicators and multipliers has already begun to restrict some of the historical and traditional «discount» the Greek market had.
In other words, Greece is no longer the stock market that you bought at six or seven times the profits (P/E) because nobody wanted to take over «Greek risk». Now participation in Euronext Athens «costs» More. The Greek danger has decreased. Investors know that. And risk reduction gives rise to prices.
But that does not mean that the Greek market suddenly became more expensive than Europe. Recent analyses of international households continue to identify «discount» in relation to European markets, particularly in individual sectors and banks. The crucial point is that «discount» This is no longer large enough to justify indiscriminately the purchase of all Greek shares due to the removal of the so-called «country risk».
And while international investment houses are upgrading their stock recommendations, they are also raising their «targets», objections are expressed, mainly by those who have been left aside and have not invested in the Athens Stock Exchange. Of those who still expect «roll» market down to buy. But also from those who see problems ahead with Turkey, or worry ahead of the elections.
The 2700 bet is big. Any retreat before your conquest cannot be considered dangerous until it reaches 2,530 units. On the other hand, its transcendence and the road to the 3,000 units, which for many are also «Holy Exchange Grail» of 2026, will lead to a reduction or even disappearance of «discount» the Greek shares present against their respective European shares.
«BUY» Well, if we think it is worth the risk of market participation for another +12.5% to the point where prices will be «Fair» Compared to the corresponding Europeans. Where the «comparative advantage» It will start to evaporate and comparisons will now be made with other criteria.
«SELL», if we are satisfied with our profits and gains so far and we estimate that somewhere here the risk/benefit relationship begins to weigh in favour of risk and that in front of us the beginning of a change in market behaviour makes its appearance.
Και «HOLD», εάν θέλουμε να δούμε όλο το έργο που εξελίσσεται, μέχρι και τη συμμετοχή του Euronext Athens, στις ώριμες αγορές. Και με την υπόθεση ότι οι εκλογές δεν θα οδηγήσουν σε μια δυσάρεστη έκπληξη.
