The Apostle Manthus
The four systemics have already reached total capitalization EUR 54.77 billionThe UBS in recent analysis calculates EUR 16.72 billion for the three years 2026-2028. Together they come billions in distributions to shareholders, a strong increase in commissions and profits per share (EPS) that in some cases increase at a two-digit annual rate. Each bank, however, reaches these profits from a quite different path.
The EUR 4,568 The Eurobank (EuroB) has capitalization EUR 16.46 billion. UBS estimates adjusted profits of 1,565 billion euros this year, 1.741 billion in 2027 and 1.829 billion in 2028. Add them and come out EUR 5,135 billion in three years, approximately 31% of current stock value. Much more movement comes from supplies. Net commissions were 770m euros in 2025 and UBS expects them in EUR 1,114 billion in 2028. Increase almost 45%, when net interest income rises by 20.5%. Thus, the dependence of profitability on interest rates is reduced year by year. Net loans, meanwhile, go from ECU 54.7 billion to ECU 54.7 billion. EUR 69 billion. At the same time the profits are rising and the shares are decreasing. UBS calculates 3,497 billion shares from 2027, compared to 3,623 billion in 2025. EPS reaches EUR 0,52 in 2028 and EUR 0,60 in 2030, with a dividend of EUR 0,36 . In the same year UBS sees profits EUR 2.124 billion. For Eurobank of EUR 16.46 billion, this corresponds to around EUR 16.46 billion. 7.8 times the profit of 2030 based on today's capitalization.
The National (EIB) is located in EUR 16,725 with value EUR 15,298 billion. Here I would stand on a small line of the exhibition. UBS is located 8% above consensus in the EPS of 2026 and 7% over 2027 and 2028. In the other three banks the corresponding distance is considerably shorter. UBS expects custom winnings EUR 1,299 billion in 2026, 1.462 billion in 2027 and 1.561 billion in 2028. At the same time, the risk costs fall from 0.44% in 2025 to just 0.30% in 2028, while NPEs reach 2%. In the second quarter of 2026 the coverage of the NPEs was already in 100,9%, compared to 79.3% of Piraeus, 78.1% of Eurobank and 55.1% of Alpha. The big paper here is the returns. UBS sets dividend EUR 0,58 for 2026, EUR 0,93 for 2027 and EUR 0,97 for 2028Total 2.48 euros per share, almost 15% of current price. In addition, it provides special distributions over basic distribution rate 60% until 2027. Shares are also reduced from 915 million in 2025 to 859 million in 2028. Profit, dividend and smaller number of shares work simultaneously in favor of EPS.
The Piraeus (PIP) is located in EUR 10,265 and EUR 12,687 billion capitalization. Piraeus is UBS' first choice and two performances justify this position. In the second quarter of 2026 supplies corresponded to 1,09% of the assets, by far the highest performance of the four. Eurobank 0.76%, Alpha 0.71%, National 0.62%. And at the same time Piraeus had cost-to-income 31%, also the best performance among the four. The three years before her is translated into EUR 4,087 billion of adjusted profits, 1.224 billion in 2026, 1.386 billion in 2027 and 1,477 billion in 2028. The amount corresponds to 32.2% of current capitalization. Add the dividends of the same three years. 0,57 plus 0.71 plus 0.79, total EUR 2,07 per share. It's over 20% of current priceUBS continues until 2030 with a dividend of €0.91, profits of €1.675 billion and cost-to-income 30%The NPEs then fall into 1,5%Compared to 2025 is enough. Within five years, profits increase by 48% and NPEs retreat by a quarter.
The Alpha (alpha) The EUR 4,575 Estimated EUR 10,322 billion. Here the strongest number is in the supplies. From 501m euros in 2025, UBS raises them to EUR 766 million in 2028The increase almost reaches 53%. In the same period net interest income rises by 23%. The second quarter gave Alpha a first among the four. Business loans in Greece increased by 6% In just one quarter, reaching EUR 30 billionNational followed with 4,5%, Eurobank with 3,1% and Piraeus with 1,1%Also at the lowest interest rates Alpha has the lowest sensitivity of the four. With Euribor below one percentage point, UBS calculates a reduction 6.4% in Alpha EPS, the smallest among four. The corresponding impact reaches 7% for Eurobank, 8.3% for National and 10.1% for Piraeus. Adapted profits rise from 821m euros in 2025 to EUR 1.155 billion in 2028 and EUR 1.348 billion in 2030. Together the ROTE rises from 11.3% to 14.7%. Alpha, which today has the lowest profitability of the four, is at the same time the one for which UBS is waiting 13% average annual EPS increase over three yearsThe highest among the four.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
