The Apostle Manthus
The Lavipharm (LABI) enters a new valuation class, as the market begins to reassess not only its current financial figures, but mainly the profitability and cash flows that it can show within the next three years. Share in EUR 1,69 and capitalization in EUR 285,68 million, investment interest is now transferred from the logic of "stage improvement" to a more demanding debate on whether the company can become one of the strongest export transdermal players on the wider European market.
In the first quarter of 2026 it acted as the first substantial confirmation that the group's development continues at a steady pace. Sales before Rebate & Clawback were formed in EUR 16,59 million, increased by 12,8% In relation to the corresponding period last year, net sales were increased by 15,3%, EUR 14,65 million. The gross profit amounted to EUR 6,58 million, showing rise 9,1%, while EBITDA from ongoing activities was formed in EUR 3,13 million, against EUR 2,82 million in the first quarter of 2025, recording an increase 11%.
Even more substantial was the strengthening of pre-tax profits from ongoing activities, which amounted to EUR 1,41 million, increased by 28,6%, while net profits from ongoing activities reached EUR 820 million, presenting an increase 18,4%. The reduction by 49,8% total net earnings after tax is linked solely to the exceptional profit of EUR 973 million from the sale of the network of pharmacies registered in the first quarter of 2025 and therefore is not a comparable functional basis.
At activity level, the progress of prescribed medicinal products on the Greek market, where sales increased by 32,2%, reaching EUR 10,45 million. OTC sales declined marginally against 0,9%, while exports moved lower by 14,6%, EUR 4,03 million. The administration explains that the decline in exports is related to late licenses for sales around EUR 1.1 million, which are transported in time in use.
But the big event for Lavipharm in 2026 is the acquisition of DUrogESIC® by Janssen Global Services. The transaction concerns the acquisition of marketing authorisations, trademarks, and marketing and production rights of the known transdermal fentanyl patch in 24 countries, for a price $12 million.
For the market, the importance of the acquisition is not limited to adding another medicinal brand. DUROGESIC® has historically been one of the most recognized international preparations in the treatment of chronic pain, with its global sales overtaken in the past. EUR 1.5 billion before the patent expires. Lavipharm now has access to a mature international product with already formed presence in the medical community and at the same time in a portfolio that "links" completely with its know-how and industrial base.
The company already has a long experience in transdermal technologies. According to the data presented in the market analyses, Lavipharm had received an FDA approval for a premium fentanyl patch as early as 2006, while the commercial disposal of fentanyl patch had started in Greece in 2007 and Germany in 2008.
At the same time, the production base in Paiaña has been considerably strengthened, with the production capacity of patches now rising to around 120 million units per year, from around 45 million units previously.
The Ambrosia Capital In its latest report, it essentially places Lavipharm at a new valuation level. The house maintains a recommendation Buy and raises the target value to EUR 2 per share, from EUR 1,05 previously, estimating an upward margin of about 19% from the levels where the share is now located.
But what stands out most is new forecasts for the financial sizes of the next three years. Ambrosia predicts that the group's revenue will increase from EUR 70 million 2025 in EUR 88,2 million in 2026 and then in EUR 141.6 million in 2027, recording a rise 60,5% on an annual basis. For 2028, forecasts place sales on EUR 155,1 million.
The change in EBITDA is even more impressive. From EUR 15,5 million In 2025, Ambrosia predicts EBITDA EUR 17,3 million in 2026, EUR 34,9 million 2027 and EUR 46,5 million 2028. This translates into an increase in almost 200% μέσα σε τρία χρόνια, με το EBITDA margin να ενισχύεται από 22,1% in 30%.
Το μοντέλο ανάπτυξης που περιγράφει ο επενδυτικός οίκος βασίζεται σε τρεις βασικούς άξονες. Ο πρώτος είναι η σταδιακή ενσωμάτωση του DUROGESIC® στις εξαγωγικές δραστηριότητες του ομίλου. Ο δεύτερος αφορά τη μεταφορά παραγωγής στις εγκαταστάσεις της Παιανίας, εξέλιξη που αναμένεται να αυξήσει σημαντικά το manufacturing margin από το 2028 και μετά. Ο τρίτος σχετίζεται με την αύξηση του ποσοστού των διεθνών πωλήσεων, όπου τα rebates και clawbacks είναι αισθητά χαμηλότερα σε σχέση με την ελληνική αγορά.
Η Ambrosia εκτιμά επίσης ότι το free cash flow θα περάσει σε εντελώς διαφορετική ζώνη μέσα στα επόμενα χρόνια. Μετά το επενδυτικό φορτίο του 2026, το free cash flow προβλέπεται να φθάσει τα 11,1 εκατ. ευρώ το 2027 και τα 28 εκατ. ευρώ το 2028. Την ίδια στιγμή, ο δείκτης καθαρού δανεισμού προς EBITDA υπολογίζεται ότι θα μειωθεί στο 0,2x έως το 2028.
Σε επίπεδο αποτίμησης, οι προβλέψεις αυτές αλλάζουν αισθητά και τους χρηματοοικονομικούς δείκτες της μετοχής. Το EV/EBITDA υπολογίζεται στις 17 φορές για το 2026, στις 8,2 φορές για το 2027 και στις 5,8 φορές για το 2028.
Εφόσον η Lavipharm καταφέρει να πλησιάσει λειτουργική κερδοφορία της τάξης των 46,5 εκατ. ευρώ EBITDA μέσα στην επόμενη διετία, η σημερινή κεφαλαιοποίηση των EUR 285,68 million αρχίζει να αποκτά διαφορετική ανάγνωση για τα θεσμικά χαρτοφυλάκια που παρακολουθούν την ελληνική φαρμακευτική αγορά.
Από άποψης διαγραμματικής ανάλυση η μετοχή δοκιμάζει τις αντοχές της αντίστασης στα 1,75 ευρώ. Επιβεβαιωμένη ανοδική διάσπαση θα φέρει πολύ γρήγορα τη τιμή της μετοχής στη ζώνη των 2,10 με 2 ευρώ.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
