Primary surplus: How we got to 4.9% - The role of inflation and... households in despair
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Primary surplus: How we got to 4.9% – The role of inflation and... households in despair

Greece recorded a primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP in 2025, the highest in the EU. According to an analysis by the Institute for Alternative Policies ONE, improvement is mainly due to inflation that increased tax revenues by 1.5 units of GDP, while primary expenditure increased only 0.4 units. Civil servants' wages and social benefits decreased as a percentage of GDP, as nominal increases fall short of inflation. Despite the financial aid measures announced by Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, the shock of accuracy continues to burden economically weaker households disproportionately.

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Why EU, IMF and OECD are more optimistic about Greek surplus
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Why EU, IMF and OECD are more optimistic about Greek surplus

**Greek primary surplus: Why international organisations systematically underestimate results**

While the budget statement for 2025 is approaching, the phenomenon of continuous upward revisions is repeated. The primary surplus originally estimated at 2.5% of GDP ends up reaching 5%. The European Commission, the IMF and the OECD start with more optimistic forecasts from Athens, but ultimately fall short of reality. The causes: additional revenue from the fight against tax evasion (3 billion euros in 2024), savings of expenditure and policy strategy to avoid excessive expectations.

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What Eurostat will announce about surplus and debt
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What Eurostat will announce about surplus and debt

Tasos Dasopoulos's Overshoot of around 1% of GDP is expected to have the primary surplus of 2025 reaching 4.5% of GDP, compared with an official forecast of a surplus of 3.7% of GDP, Eurostat is expected to announce in a few days, along with the other financial data from last year. In particular, on the basis of the data collected [...]

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