The Apostle Manthus
The results of the Allwyn start with numbers that easily win the titles. Net revenues of 1.246 billion euros, +27%, adjusted EBITDA 458 million euros, +29%, and a margin of 36.8% from 36.3%. The administration also maintains the provision for a net revenue increase of over 25% in 2026 and an EBITDA margin of about 37%.
This is the easy reading. We looked a little more.
Allwyn now in front of the investor is far from the group that knew the Greek stock exchange through the OPAP. Greater, much more international, much more digital, with a significant presence in the US, strong stakes and a much higher loan. And that has changed the composition of her numbers considerably.
The +27% is the published increase in the net income of the consolidated group, which now includes PrizePicksAllwyn also gives a second indicator to isolate the course of comparable activities. On this underlying basis, excluding PrizePicks and correcting the negative effect of higher game taxes on Austria, the increase is formed at 5%.
At EBITDA the presentation gives even more details. From EUR 355 million for the second quarter of 2025, higher gaming taxes in Austria are burdening this year's result against EUR 13 million and increased depreciation of LottoItalia's renewed licence against EUR 9 millionOther activities add EUR 31 million of organic growth EBITDA, amount corresponding to approximately 9%, while PrizePicks adds others EUR 94 million. This is how we get to EUR 458 million adapted EBITDA, increased by 29% annually.
However, a point that drew the attention of analysts lies between the functional and the custom EBITDA. The first was EUR 361 million and the second EUR 458 million, leaving EUR 97 million of adjustments within the second quarterAllwyn analyzes EUR 97 million, EUR 61 million at corporate level, mainly for global brand and trade, and others EUR 33 million in North America for transaction costs, staff incentives and judicial arrangements.
The gross income from gambling (GGR) increased 6%, at EUR 2,286 billion, while net revenue reached 1.246 billion euros with an increase of 27%. Toy taxes and social contributions have been reduced by EUR 1,262 billion in EUR 1.130 billion, with their percentage on GGR falling from 58.6% to 49,4%. Thus, since the increase of EUR 131 million in the GGR, Allwyn has gone to an increase of EUR 267 million in net revenue.
The digital has already changed the proportions of the group. Online net proceeds from games reached EUR 596 million from EUR 330 million, 81% increase. Online now represents 52% of total gaming NGR, compared to 37% a year ago. In activities that can be played online, online participation rose to 58% of 44%. Over half of Allwyn's NGR gaming is now produced digitally.
The PrizePicks offers perhaps the best numerical contrast of the quarter. Total bet amounts increased over 35%, active users in June increased by 18% and volumes in prediction markets more than 30% quarterly. However, net revenue has just increased 3% at fixed rates. Last year's comparison had particularly favourable sporting results for the operator and this limited the conversion of this year's activity to a corresponding revenue increase.
Allwyn simultaneously chose to spend more on new players. Marketing expenditure in North America increased by EUR 25 million, while the entries associated with the World Cup exceeded the 26 million in June and July. On a comparable basis, with PrizePicks in both years, North America's adjusted EBITDA decreased 26%, from 141 million to 104 million euros, and the margin from 48.8% to 35,4%EBITDA after CAPEX fell from 136 million to 94 million euros.
The account of this marketing stays open for the second semester..
PrizePicks entered the third quarter with a much larger base of active players and follow NFL, NHL and NBA. The company itself also expects an easier annual comparison in sports results than in the first semester. If the additional EUR 25 million begins to return through higher revenues and EBITDA, the second quarter's pressure will gain a completely different reading.
The United Kingdom It's almost the other way around. Net revenue rose only 2% on a published basis to 236m euros, while the GGR declined 16%. The custom EBITDA however rose from 6 million at EUR 23 million and margin from 2.6% at 9.7%The EBITDA minus CAPEX went by -EUR 31 million in +10 million within 12 months.
About GBP 450 million invested in the technological transformation of the British National Lottery They start returning money. and the UK CAPEX fell 65%, from 37 million to 13 million euros. Sales are still on the way.
Allwyn initially waited medium to high one-digit growth rate for more than 2026 states that it will move lower than this range, after +2% of the first semester. Powerball adds a new card, having already collected over 2.5 million players After the July launch.
The Continental Europe remains the largest EBITDA producer. Net revenue increased 4% at 731m euros. The rhythm would be 6% if there was no charge from the highest gaming taxes in Austria, according to Allwyn.
Custom EBITDA retreated 3% to EUR 293 million, with the margin falling from 43.2% to 40,1%. This is where both higher taxes in Austria and increased depreciation of LottoItalia's renewed licence were borne. If these two charges are removed from the comparison, Allwyn calculates an EBITDA 4% increase. The second quarter was also the last quarter in which the changes in Austrian taxation burden the annual comparison.
The Betano continues to function as a large source of cash. On a 100% basis, revenue increased 26% at 972m euros and the functional EBITDA 24% at 257m euros. Allwyn's share of net profits was reduced to 61 million from 63 million euros, affected by an extraordinary charge in this quarter and by a more favourable comparison last year. But Betano distributed EUR 351 million in the second quarter, of which EUR 129 million accounted for Allwyn. In the six months total distributions reached EUR 551 million, + 57%.
Allwyn's free cash flow has reached EUR 398 million from EUR 23 million Last year. The comparison needs a little peeling. The working capital added 35m euros this year, while last year it had deducted 261m euros. The annual difference in this line reaches EUR 296 million. The adjusted operating cash flows before the change in working capital rose from 359 million to 359 million. EUR 411 millionAbout 14.5%. CAPEX decreased 39% and the custom EBITDA after CAPEX reached EUR 420 million, +43%.
The strong production of cash was however accompanied by large outflows.
In the second quarter they headed EUR 545 million in licenses and capital contributions, EUR 583 million to shareholders, EUR 456 million for the right of exit and EUR 31 million for re-markets. Total cash flows before a new loan were closed in -EUR 1.257 billion.
The net lending along with the leases reached EUR 6,658 billion, or 3.5 times the pro forma adjusted EBITDA last 12 months of EUR 1.879 billion. At the end of March it was at 5,354 billion euros.
The increase already costs. Adapted financial costs rose 83%, from 53 million to 97 million euros, while interest paid increased to EUR 71 million from EUR 38 million.
However, higher lending finds a balance sheet with significant financial reserves against it.
The average duration is in 4.7 years, undrawn bound lines reach EUR 1,114 billion and interest coverage moves on 6.4 times. After the major outflows of the first half, the company calculates much smaller needs for the second half, around EUR 150 million for intermediate distribution and up to EUR 119 million for the remaining repurchase programme.
The comparison of profits per share also needs special attention.
The adjusted profits for shareholders reached EUR 188 million, while the published ones were EUR 53 million. The published EPS was 0.07 euros and the custom EUR 0,24. The latter appears to be 23% lower than the 0.31 euros of the second quarter of 2025, but last year's base concerns the historical OPAP and the weighted number of shares has risen from 358.6 million ECU to 774,2 εκατ. μετά τη συνένωση. Η απευθείας σύγκριση απαιτεί επομένως προσοχή.
Μέχρι τις 21 Αυγούστου η Allwyn είχε επαναγοράσει 6.538.301 μετοχές έναντι 89 εκατ. ευρώ, με μέσο κόστος περίπου 13,61 ευρώ ανά μετοχή. Το πρόγραμμα φτάνει έως τα 150 εκατ. ευρώ και η πολιτική προβλέπει ελάχιστη ετήσια διανομή 1 ευρώ ανά μετοχή. Η ίδια η παρουσίαση υπολογίζει συνολικές ανακοινωμένες επιστροφές κεφαλαίου για το 2026 σε 1,19 ευρώ ανά μετοχή, μαζί με το buyback.
Το +27% στα καθαρά έσοδα και το +29% στο EBITDA είναι λοιπόν μια καλή αφετηρία. Τώρα μένει να φανεί τι θα ακολουθήσει.
Πόσο γρήγορα οι νέοι παίκτες της PrizePicks θα περάσουν στα κέρδη, πόσα μετρητά θα αρχίσει να επιστρέφει η Βρετανία και πόσο γρήγορα τα 6,658 δισ. ευρώ δανεισμού θα υποχωρήσουν καθώς οι μεγάλες εκροές του πρώτου εξαμήνου μένουν πίσω.
Εκεί θα κριθεί η επόμενη μέρα μιας Allwyn που σήμερα αποτιμάται κοντά στα EUR 11.5 billion.
Διαγραμματικά η μετοχή θα πρέπει να περάσει με δύναμη πάνω από την περιοχή αντίστασης των 14,42 ευρώ για να πούμε ότι ανοίγει το δρόμο για το επίπεδο των 16,00 με 16,30 ευρώ.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
