Goods markets for agricultural products have recently been in turmoil. The markets now price and incorporate in their prices a complex combination of war, heat, narrower production margins and increasing energy costs. Unlike earlier times when they invoiced some individual and seasonal deficiencies in certain agricultural products.
The agricultural markets begin to move as if people suddenly discovered another vulnerable and fragile supply chain, hidden in the public eye.
Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has climbed to the highest level in the last 36 months, expanding a seven-week upward course, as the conflict in the Middle East, heat and uncertainty of weather conditions converge negatively on the world's most important production and transport corridors. The wheat has been ejected above the levels we had to see since 2023, the corn rose sharply in July, and soya followed its own upward trend.
This is not another repetition of the food crisis that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Global agricultural markets show no uniform shortage, supermarket shelves are not empty and the cost of the wider «Food basket» The UN remains well below its previous high. The attacks on the Black Sea continue to disrupt Ukraine's natural export capacity for cereals, increasing premiums and transport costs.
Nevertheless, the risk of inflation of agricultural products, which is found in the analyses as «Agroinflation», lies in the fact that various risk factors, which the markets would normally invoice as separate, are now beginning to overlap.
So in addition to the war with Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupting grain routes in the Black Sea, the conflict in the Middle East also came to increase the cost of oil, fertilizer and transport. At the same time the extreme heat threatens the yields of agricultural production in Europe and in parts of the US. At the same time, an unusually strong El Niño phenomenon may not lead to a global absolute shrinkage of crops, but significantly widens the range of adverse effects in several important rural areas, such as Asia, Australia and South America.
So in this wider climate of concern last week a huge position was opened in the agricultural options market. The buyer acquired 100,000 «call spreads» (purchase spreads) end November 2026, with a range of practice price from $5,50 to $6, at a cost of about 41.5 to 41⁄2 cents per bushel. Each contract corresponds to 5,000 bushels, giving the position a report linked to 500 million corn bushels. Busel is a traditional unit of volume measurement, used primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom to measure agricultural products (cereals, fruits, vegetables etc.). And for corn, 1 bushel corresponds to 25.4 kilos. So this is a bet of 12.7 million tons of corn. That's a 3% bet on global corn production.
This transaction is recorded as the historically largest in the cereals sector. The «bet» no «bets» It is essential for the possibility that the corn market will run out, but that there will be a sharp rise in price from $4,80 to $6:00. Is this +25% unlikely? Analysts say not.
The most immediate pressure comes from the Black Sea, where the Russian–Ukraine war has a direct effect on maritime transport. Missile and drone attacks have caused damage to Ukrainian ports and ships. Shipowners have temporarily stopped approaching certain ports in Ukraine, while the loss of export capacity is estimated at about one third. The disturbance comes at the worst moment, during the harvest of season 2026/27. Alternative routes such as the Danube and rail networks are more expensive and lack the necessary capacity to fully replace the Black Sea main naval corridor.
Another tangible pressure comes from El Niño. El Niño changes air traffic and alters the possibilities of drought, heat or excessive rainfall. The greatest risk to the market is not that all crops will fail simultaneously. But that confidence in the capacity for sufficient supply in many crops declines significantly, while people are already struggling with more expensive transport costs.
The El Niño phenomenon is expected to be strengthened by the end of 2026. The effects exceed US corn and soybean, affecting palm oil, sugar, coffee, cocoa, rice, and feed. In Europe, heat has reduced river navigation, thereby threatening inland transport.
In addition to reducing the production of agricultural products and the difficulty in transporting it, the war in Iran also came to complicate the price puzzle even more. Increased energy costs run through the whole chain, since agricultural machinery burns diesel, natural gas is a key raw material for nitrogen fertilizers and irrigation requires electricity.
So another one is created «vicious circle». Higher oil prices make crops more expensive both in production and transport, while at the same time increasing demand for crops used as biofuels, replacing oil.
Ο επίσημος δείκτης τιμών τροφίμων του FAO δεν έχει επιβεβαιώσει μια εκτίναξη των τιμών των τροφίμων σε επίπεδα «κόκκινου» συναγερμού. Καθώς τα δεδομένα αυτά αφορούν κυρίως τιμές χονδρικής και περνούν στην αγορά με χρονική υστέρηση. Οι καταναλωτές όμως θα νιώσουν τις επιπτώσεις με καθυστέρηση και σε δεύτερο χρόνο, καθώς οι μονάδες μεταποίησης και το λιανικό εμπόριο θα μεταφέρουν το αυξημένο κόστος στην κατανάλωση.
Ο πληθωρισμός τροφίμων είναι το πιο επικίνδυνο είδος πληθωρισμού, γιατί τα νοικοκυριά δεν μπορούν να σταματήσουν να αγοράζουν τα βασικά αγαθά. Όταν τα τρόφιμα απορροφούν μεγαλύτερο μέρος του εισοδήματος, οι υπόλοιπες δαπάνες συμπιέζονται, προκαλώντας σοκ ανάπτυξης στην υπόλοιπη οικονομία.
Οι κεντρικές τράπεζες βρίσκονται σε δύσκολη θέση. Τα σοκ στα τρόφιμα και την ενέργεια μπορεί να ενσωματωθούν στις ανοδικές προσδοκίες για τον πληθωρισμό και τους μισθούς. Η επόμενη φάση της πληθωριστικής ιστορίας μπορεί να μην «γράφεται» σε ένα data center τεχνητής νοημοσύνης, όπως είχαμε περιγράψει στο άρθρο «Chipflation: Η νέα πληθωριστική απειλή», Here., αλλά να φυτρώνει και να μεγαλώνει ήδη στα χωράφια.
