According to the report by the Gold-WGC World Council yesterday, in a 74 central bank survey, 45% said he plans to buy gold rods next year. This is the largest share ever recorded in the data collected by the World Gold Council.
This investigation is of particular interest, as during the first quarter of 2026 the net gold markets from central banks remained strong at 244 tonnes, but a marked increase in regular sales from certain countries was recorded. You see, gold sometimes plays the role of liquidity joker.
What countries have used the «gold piggy bank»
Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan's state fund used their reserves to support the national currency, to cover government deficits or to secure high prices.
More specifically, after a long period of heavy accumulation, the Central Bank of Turkey decided to take advantage of high gold prices and went on to sell and borrow a significant part of its reserves (about 130 tonnes). The main reason was the need to manage domestic liquidity and support the national currency amid the economic and budgetary pressures intensified by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East.
Russia also went on to sell to cover fiscal deficits and direct funding of needs arising from the ongoing war with Ukraine and sanctions from the West.
Azerbaijan's state investment fund – SOFAZ – was also one of the largest gold sellers in the previous period.
Unlike central banks selling gold for liquidity, currency support or deficit coverage, the Azerbaijani fund has moved towards a significant reduction in its reserves within the first quarter, with the ultimate aim of securing its profits from the gold price rally - let us not forget that prices have doubled over the last three years - and redistributing its funds to other assets.
You see, the gold had come to be 35.6% of its total portfolio -$26.1 billion in a fund of $73 billion. This excessive concentration forced the fund into a technical redistribution to reduce its risk, which does not apply for example to the Middle East funds, which have much more diversified portfolios. Attestin, his movements were of an investment nature.
So are the moves of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. These countries traditionally operate as regular sellers/buyers taking advantage of historically high gold prices to liquidate domestic production and balance their exchange reserves.
Prospects for the coming months
From the above, one concludes that the sales of the previous quarter by the central banks do not constitute a structural change in stock management. In some cases they operated as a liquidity pool and in some they were just one «technical noise».
But what is expected from now on?
As we wrote at first, according to the official annual survey of the World Gold Council 45% of central banks plans to increase their reserves to gold in the next 12 months. This is the highest percentage ever recorded.
The main reasons behind this intention are as follows:
- The persistent tendency to differentiate from the dollar. 74% of managers expect a drop in the dollar share in world reserves over the next 5 years.
-The role of gold as «shelter» against sanctions and systemic risks, but also as a substantial counterbalance to the loss of purchasing power due to inflationary pressures.
- The trend towards repatriation observed in recent years and thanks to which many countries have turned towards domestic storage for security reasons, away from traditional Western centres.
The important correction of the price of gold. According to head central banks for WGC, Shaokai Fan, the price drop is a «gold» an opportunity for some central banks to start buying.
According to a WGC survey, next year the central banks of emerging markets and emerging economies are the majority of prospective buyers, as about 53% of respondents said they expect an increase in their holdings, compared to 18% of the central banks of advanced economies.
How the US-Iran deal affects gold
The signing of the bridesmaid between the US government and Iran brought considerable relief to international markets. This interim agreement provides for the extension of the truce for 60 days and the full opening of the Strait of Ormuz, which had been ruled out after the military conflicts of previous months. The official signing is scheduled for next Friday, June 19, 2026.
These developments led the prices of crude oil below $80/varelli, removing fears of out-of-control global inflation.
With the inflationary risk falling, the markets reduced the chances of new interest rates increases by the Fed. Just this relaxation of expectations for aggressive monetary policy held back the fall of gold, allowing it to stabilize and recover slightly over $4,320/hungary.
The Fed station meeting and how it will affect the gold
Today's first meeting of the Fed chaired by Kevin Warsh is an event-station, with markets expecting interest rates to remain unchanged at 3.50% – 3.75%.
However, Warsh's rhetoric and new economic forecasts will judge the short-term course of gold.
If Warsh adopts an aggressive rhetoric this will affect the gold downwards.
Warsh is known for his commitment to price stability and takes over the presidency with an inflation of around 4.2% in May.
If the Fed officially removes the «stress of relaxation» from its announcement and Warsh appears willing to consider even interest rate increases within 2026 if inflation persists, dollar and bond yields will be strengthened, while gold will be under direct pressure as an asset that does not yield interest rate
The second script for the column is also most likely, is a milder attitude than Warsh. The recent US-Iran preliminary agreement and the fall of oil offer Warsh the necessary «Fuel» to avoid an overly aggressive language.
So if the new President lowers inflationary pressures due to the deescalation of energy prices or emphasises the acceleration of Fed's balance sheet shrinking as an alternative instead of new interest rate increases, gold is not out of the question of increasing the resistance of $4,378 per ounce, which will pave the way for $4,720 per ounce.
At this point we should make a clarification. Warsh has stated that he wants to reduce the frequency of Fed's public positions and limit the so-called forward guidance, namely market guidance for the future.
If tomorrow imposes this new line, ambiguity will increase. Historically, when markets cannot predict the movements of a central bank, they turn to gold as a safe haven, offering unexpected long-term support to metal prices.
The technical picture
Gold is in a medium-term correction phase, as it moves about 22%–26% below its historical highs and has since June lost the average 200-day mobile. The restoration of this technical treaty can be attempted over the next few days, i.e. the upward split of the $4378-4470/ ounce zone.
If that happens, the next bet will be the upward split of $4572/ounce while the «bulls» They'll come back if we have a dynamic split of $4720 per ounce.
In support the most important is $4262/hungary on a weekly chart, $4000/hungary and finally $3676/hungary.
At this point we should mention that according to several analysts in the short term gold remains in «technically dead zone» and will await Fed's signals under Kevin Warsh's new leadership on inflation and interest rates.
However, in the long term, large investment houses such as J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs etc., maintain a Bullish attitude, predicting a return to $5,400 – 6,000/hungary by the end of the year, supported by the new wave of central bank markets.
At this point, it should be recalled that central banks have accumulated an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold over the last four years, which is a significant increase compared to the average of 500 tonnes in the previous decade.
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