The image of a political force determined to address the problem of French debt and deficits attempts to build Marin Lepin, presenting a highly ambitious fiscal plan in the face of the 2027 presidential election.
The National Alarm (RN) presented on Tuesday the basic lines of its "anti-budget", with Lepin promising EUR 140 billion net savings by 2032, compared to 2026. At the same time, it argues that it can limit the public deficit to 3% of GDP as early as 2030.
The plan provides for the restoration of a primary budget balance, i.e. before interest expenditure, within 18 months. At the same time, the aim is to reduce public debt to GDP to 112%, while Lepin promises net tax reduction by EUR 30 billion in the same period.
This is a combination that is also the biggest credibility bet of the project: major cost cuts, but also significant tax reductions.
The paradox of pensions
The proposal on insurance is of particular interest. Lepin argues she can save EUR 15 to 20 billion over time from corrections to the existing pension system, which characterizes as a source of "significant deficit".
At the same time, however, she has been in favour of reduction in retirement age to 62 or even 60 years, as appropriate.
The National Alert argues that savings will result from general promises to abolish or correct measures it considers unfair or ineffective rather than from increasing age limits. At the same time, Lepin announced the creation of a "real capitalization pillar", through a major reform of individual and collective capitalization insurance.
The contradiction is obvious: the party promises a lower retirement age, while at the same time wanting to reduce the cost of the pension system. Whether the two objectives can co-exist financially will depend on the details of the measures, which RN is expected to present in the next period.
"Golden Rule" and ECB
The main element of the proposal is also the establishment, through referendum, "Golden Financial Rule", which will oblige governments to reduce debt every year.
Lepin argues that without a "political break" France is in danger of being driven to a pay stop. At the same time, it calls on the European Central Bank to intervene in order to reduce the burden of high interest rates on Eurozone countries and to create a financial space for defence and technology investment.
RN also reinstates the proposal to limit the French contribution to the EU budget, while Lepen states that France will seek climate neutrality before 2050.
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who is responsible for coordinating the economic and financial sector, is in the financial staff of the campaign. Tanguy is now one of RN's main figures in trying to present the party as fiscally reliable.
What the markets say
The first reaction of the state bond market Tuesday was positive, but cannot be attributed directly to the announcement of France's far-right presidential candidate.
The performance of the French 10-year OAT declined in the morning about 7 basis points, at 4.79%, while later Reuters recorded the performance around 4.76%, reduced by 10 basis points.
This de-escalation came after the severe turmoil of previous days, when the spread of the French 10 years against the German Bund had exceeded 140 basis points, at levels that refer to the Eurozone debt crisis.
However, markets continue to be cautious about France's budgetary situation. The current drop in yields was accompanied by a more general de-escalation in international bond markets and lower oil prices. Reuters notes, in fact, that the French 10-year period remains high, despite today's recovery.
The actual test for Lepin's plan is not so much the current reaction of the markets as whether the National Alarm, which is a renaming of Jean-Marie Lepin's historic far-right National Front, will be able to present detailed and verifiable costing of EUR 140 billion, especially since it combines large cuts with tax reliefs and recent promises for lower retirement limits.
