Narin «weapons» the primary surplus of this year's budget, early debt repayments and the resilience of the economy to the pressures it receives from the ongoing Middle East crisis, Greece expects the second round of assessments for 2026 of the five major internationals evaluation houses.
First he will give his verdict DBRS next Friday (September 4th) and the evaluations by Scope Ratings and Moody’s will follow on September 18th. On 23 October it is the S&P series and the cycle will close on 6 November with Fitch.
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Having given the investment tier to Greece since 2023/2024 and having advanced – with the exception of Moody’s – to a new upgrade then, the houses confirmed the Greek debt to BBB in the first half of 2026, maintaining a waiting position due to the uncertainty from the war in Iran.
Since last March, when the first 2026 assessments took place, much water has flowed into the groove. The Straits of Hormuz remain largely closed, six months after the start of the U.S. and Israel war against Iran, resulting in the price of Brent oil being much higher than at the beginning of the year – nearly $90 a barrel of about $60 – and the price of gas in Europe has more than doubled, reaching on Thursday at €68 per megawatt hour from just €26.5.
R&I: Upgrading the prospects of the Greek economy, from stable to positive (BB positionive)
S&P trust vote in Greek banks - Positive prospects for Eurobank, National and Piraeus
Despite intense pressure on the energy front and inflation, the Greek economy has shown resilience. GDP increased in the first quarter of the year at an annual rate of 2% and the picture for the second quarter remains to be seen with the information that ELSTAT will announce on 7 September. A primary surplus of 5.77 billion was recorded in the state budget. Euros in the 7 months of January – July, higher than the target, strengthening the downturn of debt.
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At the same time, the Minister of National Economy and Finance and President of the Eurogroup, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, referred to new early debt repayments of Greece of 12.8 billion. EUR. With early repayment, the budget's target for debt reduction to 138.2% of GDP at the end of 2026 from 145.9% in 2025 is expected to exceed comfortably, with Greece leaving Italy as the country with the highest debt in the Eurozone.
Optimistic houses for Greece's path
As the prospect of debt reduction is the decisive factor taken into account by the houses, it remains to be seen how these developments will reflect on their new ratings. It should be noted that Scope, who is the first house to give Greece the investment grade and revised the prospect of Greek debt in November 2025, recently appeared much more optimistic about the path of debt deescalation. While in the assessment on 17 March its main scenario provided for a reduction to 127% of GDP in 2030 and 120% in 2035, in a report in June it provided that the Greek debt would fall to 107% in 2031, much lower than the debt not only of Italy but also of France and Belgium.
In the March review, Moody’s considered that the reduction of Greek debt would continue at a slower pace in the following years, retreating to 140% of GDP in 2027. This provision is now outdated, in the light of the new financial developments and the significant early repayment of debt, so it will be interesting for the new House's verdict as in its assessment it noted that «upward pressure on Greece's debt could arise if we saw sustained reductions in Greek debt that would significantly exceed our current expectations».
Ο DBRS σημείωνε τον Μάρτιο ότι «αν και ο οικονομικός και δημοσιονομικός ούριος άνεμος είναι πιθανό να διατηρηθεί το 2026, οι οικονομικές προοπτικές είναι εκτεθειμένες σε σημαντικούς καθοδικούς κινδύνους, όπως μία κλιμάκωση των γεωπολιτικών εντάσεων». Και πρόσθετε ότι θα μπορούσε να αναβαθμίσει το αξιόχρεο «αν το δημόσιο χρέος μειωνόταν σε γενικές γραμμές σύμφωνα με τις προσδοκίες για τα επόμενα 1-2 χρόνια και ο λόγος του (προς το ΑΕΠ) προβλεπόταν να παραμείνει σε σταθερή καθοδική πορεία μεσοπρόθεσμα λόγω ισχυρών δημοσιονομικών αποτελεσμάτων».
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Καταλύτης η μείωση του χρέους
Την περασμένη εβδομάδα, ο Fitch έκανε σαφές ότι η ταχεία μείωση του ελληνικού χρέους ήταν ο καταλύτης για τις τρεις αναβαθμίσεις που έκανε από το 2021. Αν και η ανάπτυξη της ελληνικής οικονομίας κατά 22% την περίοδο 2021-2025 έναντι περίπου 13,5% στην ΕΕ ήταν ο βασικός μοχλός για τη μείωση του χρέους, ήταν η δημοσιονομική πολιτική αυτή που καθόρισε την ταχεία αποκλιμάκωσή του, σημείωνε.
Ο οίκος πρόσθεσε ότι οι παράγοντες που στήριξαν την ανάκαμψη αρχίζουν να εξασθενούν καθώς η ανάκαμψη του τουρισμού έχει ολοκληρωθεί, η χρηματοδότηση από το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και Ανθεκτικότητας της ΕΕ κορυφώνεται το 2026 και δεν υπάρχει πλέον αρνητικό πραγματικό κόστος χρηματοδότησης. «Καθώς αυτοί οι παράγοντες εξασθενούν, τα πρωτογενή πλεονάσματα θα επωμιστούν μεγαλύτερο μέρος του βάρους της απομόχλευσης (του χρέους), την ώρα που η διατήρησή τους γίνεται πιο απαιτητική εν μέσω γήρανσης του πληθυσμού, αυξανόμενων δεσμεύσεων για την άμυνα και φθίνουσας πολιτικής συναίνεσης», ανέφερε ο Fitch.
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