Despite the fact that no definitive solution has yet been found to tension in the Middle East, international stock exchanges have already left behind concerns about the consequences of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz on the global economy and business prospects.
One after another conquers new historically highs, and almost all have already overtaken all the losses they suffered with the start of war operations on the last day of February. So Euronext Athens is over the February 27 closure and its General Index is now only 1.50% away from the high of 2,407,09% units, having closed the last meeting of the week at 2,372,70 units. Gradually, most investors leave the cautious attitude they have maintained since the beginning of March and try to find the most advantageous investment options for the next period.
The truth is, there are still opportunities despite the significant rise of past weeks. The General Index may not be far from its high but this is not mandatory for all shares. Some are left behind, but that does not mean that something has changed for them for the worse. First example is that of the banking sector, as only one of the four systemic banks has managed to overcome the high in early February, while the others are 7.50% to 12.50%.
These at the time that during the period since the beginning of the war to date, a significant number of stock analysts have actually raised the target prices for all four. Looking for opportunities is certainly not limited to the banking sector.
Since the behaviour of the shares in recent days, it seems that investment interest has begun to return to certain shares of large capitalization that have lag significantly within 2026. But there is also an investment interest in shares that have overturned in recent months, such as those in the energy sector in which there has been considerable demand from international institutional investors, the construction sector, whose positive prospects are recognised by the investment community and the industrial sector which has been slow to convince investors but has finally managed to do so.
In general, the return of the good climate to the Athens Stock Exchange has caused a large number of investors to resume actively the search for shares promising good returns based on their performance and prospects. As has been evident for several meetings, interest is no longer limited to large capitalised shares, with demand being enhanced for many companies in this category.
With reservations slowly falling behind, is it reasonable to assume that there are no more significant risks on the Athens Stock Exchange and that the traps have disappeared from its path? Obviously not. It may have improved the climate but it is in no way wise to underestimate potential risks. As we said earlier, international investors probably appreciate that the threat from inflation that is once again rising, largely due to the side effects of the Middle East war and the significant disruption in the operation of the liquid fuel markets, will be temporary.
This assessment is logically based on the general belief that the war is actually over and that the official confirmation of this event will not be long. But even if this turns out to be right, no one can really be sure that the economy will ultimately not be damaged for a significant period of time. After all, the problems caused by the closure of the Straits of Hormuz are not limited to increasing the price of fuel.
The effects on supply chains of various sectors of industry are important, with a more typical example being that of fertilizers that have already affected thousands of small and large growers around the world. But it is not increased inflation that is the only potential risk to the Athenian Stock Exchange rally. The rise in yields at international level in almost all government and corporate bonds over the last few months, combined with the estimates of a number of economists for increases in reference rates by the European Central Bank, create reasonable fears of a substantial increase in money costs, which, if it happens, will reasonably affect the economic performance of a large number of listed companies.
Another possible trap for our stock market is directly related to the fact that the good progress in American stock exchanges, as well as in Asian with the highest yields in 2026, is largely due to the huge development of the Artificial Intelligence sector and the unprecedented investments in value. Without arguing that investments and the strong development of Artificial Intelligence are a kind of bubble, we know very well that any indication that makes investors fear a slowdown in the sector will cause a significant fall in international stock exchanges and hence also in Greek.
Despite the fact that a very small percentage of the investments in Euronext Athens shares are related to Artificial Intelligence, it is certain that any international turmoil will also affect them. The above possible problems are mainly of exogenous origin and it will be very difficult for the Greek stock market to deal with them without losses despite its admittedly positive prospects. But there is also a potential risk that has nothing to do with Greece alone.
At the moment, it does not seem to concern large domestic and international investors, institutional and private, and it does not seem to be possible that they will never be bothered. We are talking about the parliamentary elections which will be held in our country at the latest 12 months from now. If, at some point, investors are given the impression that political stability is somehow at risk, a factor that has decisively supported the performance of the Athens Stock Exchange, then things will certainly get worse on the market, even if this sense ultimately proves to be meaningless. We have to admit that we do not think that possible, but it would be naive to consider that it is impossible.
Risks and traps always exist in the stock markets, but usually the concerns involved go aside when the stock indices move up clearly. At the moment we are in such a situation, so we should not underestimate any obstacles. There may be no substantial question of the good elements and prospects of Euronext Athens' shares, but we must always be grounded.
