The Demosthenes Triangle
Metlen's image just before the FTSE UK 100 review (index representing the 100 largest London Stock Exchange companies) in June 2026 is much more resilient than the negative news momentum of recent months suggests.
The market, I would say, went through a phase of intense doubt after warning about profits, delaying results, but also issues of execution in certain projects. However, the follow-up is expected with great interest, as the EUR 1-115 billion of 2026 sets the foundations for the medium-term objective of EUR 2 billion EBITDA.
Stocks sold openly (short selling) during the current period in Metlen reach 8.2 million (5.72% of total shares), with these funds betting on the reduction of the share price.
To note that "I sell open shares in order to buy them lower" may be an unknown practice for the Greek market, but for mature markets it is common. It is worth mentioning that the funds have sold open shares of Easyjet (5.7%), Domino’s Pizza (5.8%) in proportions, but also much larger, such as Wizz Air with 13% of its share capital, at the time these lines were written.
Metlen's share, after the announcement by Mr. Mytileneos of EBITDA 2026 in the range of 1-1.15 billion euros, leaves many hopes that the numbers of 2025 were just a bad year. The most positive thing is that the medium-term objective for EBITDA 2 billion euros remains as it is, according to the administration. The assessment of the column is that, after the announcement of the second quarter 2026 and even more after the completion of 2026, if the figures come according to estimates, then the picture will change rapidly!
On the basis of the figures of 2025, Metlen showed a price for profits per share (P/E) above 19 times, while the EV/EBITDA index exceeded 12 times, with competition slightly below 15 times P/E and 8.5 times EV/EBITDA. On the basis of the management estimates, the P/E ratio for 2026 reaches 9,7 times, compared with more than 15 competitive risks, while the EV/EBITDA indicator for the Metlen group is estimated at 8,3 times, compared to 8,7 times of competition.
So you're gonna tell me, then? Moving a little further and in greater depth, we see that the reason for a net loan to EBITDA for the Metlen group in 2026 seems to exceed 2.5 times, compared with less than 2 times of competition. In fact, considering that at least for Europe the increase in interest rates is at stake, increased lending, without being high, is a parameter for which investors want to see lower levels.
Another aspect of Metlen's introduction to the LSE is its stay in the FTSE UK 100 index. When the stock retreated, the rumors of exiting the index looked like a fact. However, because we like to talk with evidence and not with fame, we note some numbers.
FTSE UK 100 consists of the 100 largest companies in the LSE. To delete a company from FTSE UK 100, it must retreat below 111th place in the ranking based on total capitalisation. The limit in the current phase is around GBP 3.2 billion, while Metlen exceeds GBP 5.13 billion (80th place in FTSE UK 100), according to the LSE! In other words, Metlen today is 37% off the line! In fact, the date to be considered is 2 June 2026 and the announcements are expected the next day, 3 June 2026.
In conclusion, the rise in aluminium prices can be a source of an additional rise in the second half of 2026, while the expansion of aluminium and gallium production, combined with the recovery of metals from recycling and defence activity, can strengthen and boost the group's size towards the medium-term target of EUR 2 billion EBITDA for 2028.
Finally, the big debate is not whether 2025 was a year-ahead, but whether management estimates will be verified primarily for 2026, increasing credibility in the international investment community towards the medium-term goal, thus pushing stock to levels of LSE!
Quest: Attractive valuation and in-depth capital return
Quest Holdings announced financial results first quarter 2026 higher than market estimates, mainly due to the strong performance of IT and courier activities, despite conservative management estimates for the total of 2026.
Unisystems remained the main lever for organic development, with double-digit sales and operational profitability, taking advantage of the ongoing demand for digital transformation projects in Greece and abroad. The outstanding balance of projects, amounting to around EUR 650 million, offers high revenue visibility over the coming years.
At the same time, ACS continued to overpay the domestic e-commerce market, strengthening both turnover and pre-tax profits through improved productivity and expansion of the customer base.
On the commercial side, the strong course of Apple products suggests that consumer demand remains durable, despite the relatively fragile environment.
The administration maintains a cautious stance for 2026, appreciating very mild sales growth and stable operating profitability. However, the quality of the results first quarter 2026, the strong net cash position (EUR 65 million net fund), the possibility of a significant return on capital after the completion of the sale of ACS (October 2026), combined with attractive valuation indicators [P/E 2026 (E): 11 times and EV/EBITDA: 6.3 times], should not be overlooked by an insightful investor!
What branches show the largest upward margin in S&P 500?
The target value, as shown by the individual target values of companies comprising the S&P 500 index, is 8,633 units, i.e. 16,1% higher than the closing value of 7.433 units.
At sectoral level, health sectors with +21.5% and raw materials with +21.2% are expected to present the largest price increases, as these sectors show the greatest upward difference between the target price and the closing price.
On the contrary, the main consumer goods sector with +8.3% is expected to show the lowest price increase, as it has the smallest upward difference between the target price and the closing price.
Συνολικά, υπάρχουν 12.777 αξιολογήσεις (ratings) για τις μετοχές των εταιρειών που απαρτίζουν τον S&P 500. Από αυτές, το 59,3% είναι αξιολογήσεις “Αγοράς” (Buy), το 35,7% είναι “Διακράτηση” (Hold) και το 5,0% είναι “Πώληση” (Sell). Σε επίπεδο κλάδων, οι τομείς της τεχνολογίας με 69%, των υπηρεσιών επικοινωνίας με 65%, της υγείας με 64% και των πρώτων υλών με 63% έχουν τα υψηλότερα ποσοστά αξιολογήσεων “Αγοράς”.
Στον αντίποδα, οι κλάδοι των βασικών καταναλωτικών αγαθών με 43% και των υπηρεσιών κοινής ωφέλειας με 49% έχουν τα χαμηλότερα ποσοστά αξιολογήσεων “Αγοράς”.
Τέλος, ο εκτιμώμενος δείκτης P/E (τιμή προς κέρδη) των επόμενων 12 μηνών για τον S&P 500 βρίσκεται στο 21,1. Ο δείκτης αυτός είναι υψηλότερος από τον μέσο όρο της τελευταίας 5ετίας, που είναι 19,9, καθώς και από τον μέσο όρο της τελευταίας 10ετίας, που είναι 18,9.
Ατζέντα (2 – 7/6/2026)
Στο επίκεντρο οικονομικά αποτελέσματα Allwyn και ΑΕΠ
The Tuesday οι μετοχές των Performance Technologies και CNL CAPITAL ΕΚΕΣ-ΔΟΕΕ θα διαπραγματεύονται χωρίς το δικαίωμα στο μέρισμα ύψους 0,14226723 ευρώ/μετοχή και 0,15 ευρώ/μετοχή αντίστοιχα, η YALCO έχει συγκαλέσει τακτική γ.σ., ενώ η Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος ανακοινώνει την τραπεζική χρηματοδότηση και τις καταθέσεις για τον Απρίλιο.
The Wednesday θα διεξαχθεί δημοπρασία 12μηνων ΕΓΕΔ.
The Thursday η Allwyn δημοσιεύει οικονομικά αποτελέσματα α’ τριμήνου 2026, οι Καρέλιας, Ideal Holdings, Profile, Cairo Mezz και Μοτοδυναμική έχουν συγκαλέσει τακτική γ.σ., ενώ οι μετοχές των Πλαστικών Κρήτης θα διαπραγματεύονται χωρίς το δικαίωμα στο μέρισμα ύψους 0,55 ευρώ/μετοχή.
The Friday οι μετοχές της Εθνικής Τράπεζας θα διαπραγματεύονται χωρίς το δικαίωμα στο μέρισμα ύψους 0,33 ευρώ/μετοχή, οι Interlife, Κέκροψ, Flexopack και Trade Estates ΑΕΕΑΠ έχουν συγκαλέσει τακτική γ.σ., η Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος ανακοινώνει τα τραπεζικά επιτόκια καταθέσεων και δανείων για τον Απρίλιο, ενώ η ΕΛΣΤΑΤ δημοσιεύει τη μεταβολή του ΑΕΠ α’ τριμήνου 2026.
Όλα τα βλέμματα στη μισθοδοσία του μη αγροτικού τομέα την Παρασκευή
The Tuesday το μεσημέρι ανακοινώνεται ο δείκτης τιμών καταναλωτή για τον Μάιο στην Ευρωζώνη, ενώ το απόγευμα σειρά παίρνουν οι κενές θέσεις εργασίας που υπήρχαν την τελευταία εργάσιμη ημέρα του Απριλίου στις ΗΠΑ. Οικονομικά αποτελέσματα δημοσιεύει η Palo Alto Netwοrks.
The Wednesday νωρίς το απόγευμα δημοσιεύεται η μεταβολή στις θέσεις εργασίας του ιδιωτικού μη αγροτικού τομέα των ΗΠΑ για τον Μάιο, ο δείκτης υπηρεσιών PMI από το ινστιτούτο ISM, οι εργοστασιακές παραγγελίες για τον Απρίλιο στις ΗΠΑ, ενώ νωρίς το βράδυ δημοσιεύεται το Beige Book, που είναι μια συλλογή σχολίων από επιχειρήσεις και οικονομικούς παράγοντες που δείχνει την πραγματική κατάσταση της οικονομίας στις ΗΠΑ πριν από τις αποφάσεις της Fed. Οικονομικά αποτελέσματα δημοσιεύει η Broadcom.
The Friday στις 15.30 δημοσιεύεται ο δείκτης για τη μισθοδοσία του μη αγροτικού τομέα ταυτόχρονα με τον δείκτη ανεργίας στις ΗΠΑ για τον Μάιο, αριθμοί οι οποίοι μπορούν να προσδώσουν νευρικότητα στις αγορές.
* Demosthenes Triangle is a Certified Share & Market Analyst BETA Exchange – dtrigas@beta.gr
** Republished by the newspaper Chapter
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