The Apostle Manthus
Goldman Sachs returned to PPC with recommendation Buy and target price EUR 26,50. For the stock market this translates into a theoretical rise margin of about 15% The Commission's proposal for a Directive on the harmonization of the laws of the Member States relating to turnover taxes EUR 23. But this is the easy part of reading.
Real interest begins when one leaves the first page and proceeds to the paintings, assumptions, and valuation models.
There Goldman does something that several investors may not notice at first glance.
It does not use the full business plan of the administration.
Reduces by about 20% the development objective in RES and storage projects. It assumes that electricity prices will move cumulatively about 30% lower By the end of the decade. At the same time, no contribution from data center activity, although the report itself states that PPC is in discussions with hyperscalers about the first major project in Kozani.
Yes, it is.
Goldman provides that EBITDA will rise from EUR 2,046 billion in 2025 to EUR 2,501 billion in 2026, recording an increase above 22% in one use. In 2027 operational profitability was placed on EUR 2,808 billion, in 2028 in EUR 3,067 billion, while the continuity leads to EUR 3,406 billion in 2029 The Commission's proposal is based on the principle of subsidiarity. EUR 3,692 billion in 2030. Within almost five years it is added EUR 1.65 billion for young EBITDA, size corresponding almost to the total operating profitability of several major European utibilities.
The same image appears in net profits. From EUR 448 million of 2025, Goldman predicts EUR 742 million in 2026, EUR 883 million in 2027, EUR 962 million in 2028, EUR 1,033 billion in 2029 and EUR 1,053 billion in 2030In fact, the group passes from half a billion to a profitability zone of more than one billion euros.
With simple stock exchange data, Goldman removes an important part of the "optimism" that includes the business plan and still ends up in a company with operating profitability almost twice as much as the current one..
The investment programme is perhaps the most heavy chapter in the report. PPC plans to invest EUR 24 billion in the period 2026-2030, amount equivalent to approximately 1,75 times its current stock value. Of these, about 48% head for RES, 14% in flexible production, 19% in networks, 5% on data center project and the rest in other activities.
The result of these investments is an almost doubling of the production base. The installed power from 12 GW at the end of 2025 lead to 24 GW in 2030, containing approximately 11.5 GW new RES and storage projectsAt the same time, the energy mix transforms, with about 80% of the power to come from clean forms of production.
The geographical dimension It also has its own meaning. About 60% of new projects are being developed in Greece and Romania, while the rest is directed in Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. PPC is gradually turning from national protagonist to regional energy player with presence throughout Southeast Europe.
Special gravity is also given to EBITDA composition. Production and supply activity increases its contribution from EUR 1,265 billion in 2025 In EUR 2,554 billion in 2030. Networks rise from EUR 782 million In EUR 1,061 billion, while a new contribution from activities that are currently not existing or are at an initial stage of development appears.
This creates a much larger basis of repeated profitability, based on more countries, more infrastructure and more revenue sources.
And while all this is already in the numbers in the report, there is still a paper Goldman leaves almost closed.
The data centers.
The first phase in Kozani concerns work 300 MW, with growth potential up to and 2 GW over time.
Goldman herself says an agreement with a strategic partner could arise within the next few months.
Nevertheless, in the base valuation scenario this activity adds nothing.
Zero.
Not one euro.
This means that the target price of EUR 26,50 has emerged without calculating an activity the market has been discussing more and more in recent months.
From an investment point of view, this is of particular importance.
When an analyst tries to assess the future, usually the greatest source of danger is excessive assumptions.
In the case of PPC, Goldman prefers to keep the bar of expectations low and see what results.
At level individual valuation, the Sum of the Parties approach leads to EUR 29,9 per share. The production and supply activity is valued at EUR 13,7 per share, RES and storage in EUR 10,7 per share and networks in EUR 13,2 per share.
Even more interesting is the comparison with European competitors. Goldman estimates that PPC is negotiating with an average index P/E 13.5 times for the period 2027-2030, when Iberdrola is on 16.9 times, Endesa on 16.4 times, EDP on 16.3 times and RWE on 15.2 times. In the full implementation scenario of the business plan, PPC's multiplier yields even lower, close to 12 times, a level Goldman considers particularly attractive for a company at such growth rates.
The share dimension of the investment project is also of major importance. The house predicts a rise in the dividend from EUR 0,60 per share in 2025 In EUR 1,40 in 2030, development corresponding to an average annual growth rate of around 18%.
Despite the great increase in investments, despite the conservative assumptions about electricity prices and despite the complete absence of a contribution from data centers to the main valuation model, PPC remains one of the most attractive options for the house in the European electricity industry.
For a company currently valued at EUR 13,74 billion, the debate is no longer about traditional electricity in previous years. Goldman describes an energy group that aims to double its production base, increase EBITDA towards EUR 3.7 billion, get over it EUR 1 billion of net profits and acquire presence in one of the fastest growing sectors of the digital economy, data centers.
Finally, the long-term illustrative analysis shows the beginning of an intense upward trend that can bring share to the level of EUR 28 to 30.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
