There is an old office in the stock exchanges that says that when one begins to explain and analyze with perseverance why something that happens is not important, then it probably happens exactly the opposite. I mean, it's extremely critical, but just for some reasons, «Go to the dooku».
This thought came to our minds spontaneously by reading the recent report of the Federal Reserve, in which pious efforts are being made to degrade a milestone, a station for modern monetary history. In 2026, the total value of world official gold reserves has for the first time over thirty years, foreign official reserves in American state bonds, in the well-known U.S. Treasures, as shown in the following graph.
And the thought of most goes back to distant 1981, when gold then represented close to 75% of the official reserves of central banks, while American bonds were only 10%.
So we are not just talking about gold markets on the part of central banks. But instead we are talking about a systematic accumulation of gold in the context of the reconstruction and restructuring of their reserves.
The fact that central banks diversify their portfolios by turning to gold should not only surprise us. Global government debt is rising at rates that are unsustainable. And the attention of state reserve managers, whose task is to ensure the security and sustainability of their funds, falls upon current US fiscal deficits and current transactions deficits, which seriously jeopardise the role of American bonds as key global data reserves.
The event «embarrassment» Fed's response to the rise in the importance of gold coincides with an interesting development in the markets. Which is none other than the US Treasury's announcement that it will double the long-term government bond markets through the buyback program, better known as the buyback program.
And this program may not have been officially baptized as a check on the yield curve, which in the stock term is called «yield curve control»However, its function is just that. Because if there was sufficient and genuine display of purchasing interest on the part of private and institutional investors for long-term bonds, then the US government would have absolutely no reason to intervene by providing additional liquidity on its own. Creating a «artificial demand» to balance the market.
Given that the tolerance of inflation remains one of the few ways of managing this mountain of debt, the growing budgetary deficits, as well as the shortages of US current transactions, the role of American bonds as key reserves and investment instruments is seriously jeopardised.
The Fed has some good technical points in its arguments. It argues that the increase in gold over bonds, as regards the ratio of their participation in central banks reserves, is largely due to higher prices rather than a dramatic acceleration of new markets. Recalling and vast reserves were a legacy of the Breton Woods era. However, these arguments do not invalidate the actual event.
Even if we remove American reserves, official evidence suggests that the world value of gold in the state vaults has reached $4 trillion at the end of 2025, surpassing $3.9 trillion in bonds held by foreign official institutions. Above all, the central banks themselves prove their turn. According to the World Gold Council survey of 2026, central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes per year over the past four years, following a double pace since the previous decade. With 45% of the respondents stating that he intends to increase his reserves and the next 12 months. 45% is also a record.
Ασφαλώς το αμερικανικό δολάριο δεν χάνει αύριο το πρωί το προνομιακό καθεστώς του. Ούτε ότι τα αμερικανικά ομόλογα έγιναν ξαφνικά άχρηστα. Τα ομόλογα του αμερικανικού δημοσίου παραμένουν από τα πιο θεσμικά και άμεσα ρευστοποιήσιμα περιουσιακά στοιχεία παγκοσμίως. Όμως το νόημα είναι διαφορετικό. Ο χρυσός δεν αντικαθιστά το δολάριο. Επανέρχεται στο προσκήνιο δυναμικά ως στρατηγικό νομισματικό περιουσιακό στοιχείο δίπλα και σε ορισμένες περιπτώσεις αντί των παραδοσιακών δολαριακών αποθεμάτων. Η αγορά χρυσού καλπάζει αδιάκοπα εδώ και δύο χρόνια και παρά τα ρεκόρ, η δίψα των επίσημων θεσμών δείχνει ότι έχει ακόμη πολύ δρόμο μπροστά της.
Άκουγα τον περασμένο Μάρτιο, τον Tavi Costa, εταίρο και μακροοικονομικός αναλυτή της Crescat Capital να αναφέρει στο συνέδριο του PDAC (Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada) στο Τορόντο, ότι: «Σε δέκα χρόνια από τώρα θα κοιτάμε πίσω και θα λέμε, πόσο αφελείς ήμασταν να πιστεύουμε ότι εκείνες οι τιμές του χρυσού το 2026 ήταν κοντά σε κάποιο ιστορικό υψηλό. Οι ανισορροπίες στο μακροοικονομικό πεδίο της παγκόσμιας οικονομίας είναι τόσο βαθιές, που οι τιμές του χρυσού βρίσκονται πολύ μακριά από εκεί που θα έπρεπε κανονικά να βρίσκονται».
Και για να ευλογήσουμε λίγο να γένια μας, να θυμίσουμε ότι όταν τον Μάρτιο του 2019, μαζί με τον Θανάση Μαυρίδη είχαμε αναφερθεί στην τηλεοπτική εκπομπή του Action24, «Τέτοιοι είναι», στο αγοραστικό σήμα από την ανοδική διάσπαση του επιπέδου των $1.300/ ουγγιά σχεδόν όλοι, μας θεωρούσαν τους «τρελούς του χωριού» που εκτιμούσαμε τότε τον ξεχασμένο χρυσό, ως μοναδική επενδυτική ευκαιρία.
