The Apostle Manthus
Most capital increases are made because a company needs more money. This is because the administration estimates that in the coming years investment opportunities will open beyond the current balance sheet. That's the logic behind his new plan. Aktor Group (AKTR). The company seeks to strengthen its financial power so that it can participate simultaneously in larger projects, new concessions and energy investments, in a period where the Greece and South-East Europe They enter a powerful cycle of large infrastructure.
The group enters the largest financial movement of its history, with Share capital increase EUR 650 million and bond loan of EUR 300 million, creating an overall financial force close to EUR 1 billion. With these funds it intends to mobilise investment up to EUR 3 billion by 2031.
In this way the group attempts to change its business risk mix. Construction remains basic activity, with unexecuted EUR 4.7 billionBut the big game of the next five years is on Concessions – PPP, Energy, RES and LNG. The market usually assesses construction with lower multipliers, due to cyclicity, project costs and limited visibility at margins. Concessions, energy infrastructure and long-term LNG contracts produce longer-term flows and give EBITDA better predictability.
Management puts on the table a number that needs attention: target for EBITDA EUR 600 to 650 million in the long term, EUR 207 million forma EBITDA in 2025. If this plan is carried out, Aktor will begin to compare with infrastructure groups that have a duration of revenue, energy exposure and international footprint. Even more essential is that the administration is aiming around 60% of EBITDA coming from activities with stable and predictable flows, mainly concessions and energy. That's where the real stock market is hiding.
AMP also has a specific design for the public to whom it is addressed. The 80% heads to the international investment community and 20% on the Greek market, whereas the main shareholders WINEX Investments and Castellano have expressed intent to participate in the EUR 300 million. This gives a message of support from the existing shareholder scheme and at the same time opens up space for new strong foreign portfolios. The presence of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and UBS as underwriters in AMC and UBS in the bond adds international weight to the process, because such names do not easily enter a Greek story unless they see size, design and possibility of execution.
The meeting of the Alexander Exarch with a delegation from U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC)DFC is the development financial arm of the United States government for international strategic investments, with presence in infrastructure, energy and geo-economic projects. Her appearance at the table of the debate, while Aktor prepares an international orientation ITM and while the US strengthens its position in Southeastern Europe's energy flows, should not be read as a mere formal contact.
LNG is probably the least understood piece of history. The Atlantic SEE LNG Trade has already secured LNG agreements and the aim is to build a role in the Vertical Corridor, i.e. on the route that can carry an American LNG from Greece to Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Central Europe and the Western Balkans. The agreement with Venture Global doubles the guaranteed quantities in 1 million tonnes per year for 20 years, while long-term commitments are linked to turnover EUR 9 billion for the period 2030-2050. For a Greek listed, This is a geography and duration jump.
In the LNG, the long-term EBITDA objective is placed in EUR 75 to 125 million, with investments around EUR 200 millionThe amount of investment in relation to the potential EBITDA makes the industry particularly attractive, since trade agreements mature and the infrastructure of the Vertical Corridor acquire greater use. The potential Participation in FSRU in Greece adds a second dimension: Aktor is not only seeking marketing LNG, it seeks a place in the infrastructure that will control part of the chain.
In concessions and PPPs, the EBITDA objective reaches EUR 100 to 150 million, with investments around EUR 900 million. Here the group has life-long works ahead 25 to 30 yearsThe administration also looks at Romania, where the needs of transport infrastructure are enormous, while the vertical corridor of Kostanza – Alexandroupolis, the port of Kostanza and Elefsina enter the table. These works give Aktor something that construction alone does not always give: duration.
In RES, the target is even bigger. The portfolio can reach 1.1 to 1.2 GW by 2031, with EBITDA EUR 125 to 175 million and investments EUR 1.1 billion. The portfolio in operation has a 97% contracted income through taxpayers, while also considering entry into retail electricity. This means that the group does not just want to own parks. It needs production, storage and possibly supply. The reference to batteries in Bulgaria has special value, as it shows that management looks at the actual bottleneck of the market.
Financial discipline will judge speed. Aktor wants net lending leverage close to 4 times EBITDA in the medium term and 3.5 to 4 times EBITDA in the long term. For a group that will invest aggressively, this limit is important. It shows the intention of developing with balance sheet control, which changes Aktor's valuation method.
The big bet Alexander Exarch is to turn a historical construction base into a group of infrastructure, energy and strategic flows. The AMP of EUR 650 million and their counterpart EUR 300 million is the fuel. The unexecuted EUR 4.7 billion It's the floor. The concessions, the RES and the LNG are the new dowry. DFC, American contacts and international underwriters are opening on a larger track. If the design is carried out in accordance with the timetables presented, the group will have a very different business composition, a very different revenue quality and a much larger geographical presence.
Finally, in terms of a diagram analysis, the share has split up the 11.70 euro resistance area and is now heading towards
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
***Republished by Chapter newspaper
