The fictitious prosperity of the US and the nightmare scenario of total collapse
In one dangerous illusion The global economy, when the American structure creak of a kind used in the manufacture of goods, ready to lure international markets into an unprecedented abyss.
Behind the fake image «resistance» and the fragile numbers of GDP growth, the distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of California, Barry Eichengreen, broadcasts, via an article in Project Syndicate, danger signal: Point zero is approaching, and this time things can go tragically wrong on all fronts.
On the surface, the economy of USA seems to withstand the repeated destructive shocks, recording growth rates of 2.1% in the first quarter and 1.5% in the second quarter – numbers that Fed baptizes «close to the potential of the economy».
However, this is a dangerous mirage.
The American market is ruthlessly bombarded by a nightmareous combination of crises:
Its duties «Liberation Day» April 2025, combined with the US president's direct, unprecedented political attacks Donald Trum p against Fed, they have ejected the uncertainty index (as recorded by the Dario Caldara Fed) at the highest levels of history.
Also, US war in Iran has caused «heart attack» The Close to Hormuz, sending oil over $100, while Russia's war...Ukraine continues to paralyze supplies.
The so-called crack spread (the cost difference of crude and refined products) has tripled, causing asphyxiation in the refineries.
At the same time, trade with China collapses, Chinese direct foreign investment in the US has virtually disappeared (out of US$100 billion in 2016), while bond, stock and foreign markets are suffering several strong blows.
So far, the disaster is artificially covered by the merciless bubble of investments in artificial intelligence (AI), data centres and consumer spending maintained by a overpriced stock market.
But the countdown has begun.
The nightmare scenario: What could go wrong? Everything!
THE Barry Eichengreen ring the alarm bell What's to be done, describing a backdrop of absolute chaos where crisis detonators are activated simultaneously:
At the time China imposes tough trade restrictions on dozens of American entities in view of Xi Jinping's critical visit to the US, information says Washington has exhausted the ammunition and strategic resources needed to prevent a Chinese offensive action in the South Great Sea.
A war escalation is now considered a visible danger.
At the same time, USA They play their last card in oil.
The Strategic Stock Oil is at the lowest level in the last 45 years.
The most nightmare? Half of the remaining stock is now untouched, as any withdrawal carries the immediate risk of collapse of the salt mines in which it is stored!
The Donald Trum p continues to use the threat of duties as «bat» for everything – from the fires in Canada to the elections in Brazil –, keeping the market in a state of constant panic.
The biggest nightmare, however, lurks in the financial markets. Historically, the combination of an expensive stock market with the increase in long-term interest rates has proved fatal.
Optimism for artificial intelligence is falling apart.
Giant investments in AI were funded by debt mountains.
With the cost of borrowing ejected, the sharp fall in technology shares – as already demonstrated by the first signs of panic in July – threatens to drain the wealth of households, paralyzing the market.
The worse A script?
The excessive bets with leverage (loans) from investors trapped in the same popular sectors, threaten to cause chain «cannons».
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