The Apostle Manthus
The HELLENIQ ENERGY (ELP) He spent the first quarter of 2026 simultaneously facing three major fronts. The Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, the largest general maintenance ever carried out at the Aspropyrgos Refinery and one European Fuel Market which began showing severe oil and air fuel shortages. Nevertheless, the group managed to significantly increase its profitability and strengthen its position in the wider region of Southeast Europe.
Comparable EBITDA The Commission has therefore decided to grant aid to the steel industry. €ECU 293 million, rising 63% from €180 million in the first quarter 2025. Comparable net profits reached €140 million, increased by 154% from €55 million last year.
Even more explosive was the change in published results. Reported EBITDA launched on €ECU 476 million from €The Commission has decided to grant aid totalling ECU 122 million, while net profits have increased to ECU 122 million. €ECU 284 million from just €11 million in the respective quarter last year.
The large difference between comparable and published results came from stock valuation. In the first quarter of 2026 the group recorded a positive effect €ECU 172 million from oil rise surplus when last year there was a charge €75 million
But the most impressive is the way these results came out. The production was strongly influenced by the general maintenance of Aspropyrgos. Net refining production fell to 2,716 million tonnes from 3,692 million tonnes, recording a fall 26%. Refining sales decreased by 15%, at 3,016 million tonnes from 3,532 million tonnes.
In spite of this large volume reduction, the EBITDA of the Refining, Supply and Marketing Sector rose to €220 million from €134 million, or increase 64%.
The main reason was the strong rise in international refining margins. The international indicative margin for refining the HELLENIQ ENERGY system rose to $11.4 per barrel from $5.1 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, i.e. increase 121%.
Even stronger was the real margin performance achieved by the group. The actual refining margin was formed in $20,5 per barrel from $13,2 per barrel last year, rising 55%.
The administration fully exploited the launch of margins in the middle fractions. The production of diesel and air fuel now accounted for 59% of total productionAs against about 52% last year.
The Exports remained at extremely high levels despite the maintenance of the Aspropyrgos. They corresponded to 48% of total sales, with the group maintaining a strong presence in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
The first quarter of 2026 was also particularly strong for electricity and gas activity. Power contributed €EBITDA 38 million, against €12 million in the first quarter of 2025, recording an increase of around 217%.
The electricity generation ejected on 935 GWh from 173 GWh, increasing over 440%. The revenue of the Power sector rose to €ECU 408 million from €17 million
The group's installed power in RES and thermal plants has now reached 1,404 MW, from 494 MW last year, or rise around 184%.
The extension to RES continues at a particularly fast pace. In Romania 58 MW of photovoltaic projects were already put into operation, while the entire portfolio under development now exceeds 6 GW. The target of the group remains installed power 2 GW by 2030, with about 45% of the productive base outside Greece.
In the field Domestic Marketing, the comparable EBITDAs rose to €14 million from €8 million, increase 75%, despite the imposition of a ceiling on fuel margins from March 2026.
The International Trade He also continued upwards. Sales volumes increased by 25%, at 534 thousand tonnes from 426 thousand tonnes, while EBITDA was formed in €18 million €17 million
On the contrary, Petrochemicals remained a weak link in the quarter. EBITDA collapsed in €1 million from €8 million, falling 87%, due to low international polypropylene margins. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the second quarter prices have started to improve due to reduced exports from the Persian Gulf.
At level Energy market, the Middle East crisis caused oil prices to be launched. Brent averaged $81 per barrel from $76 last year, while in March he even touched $104-$120 per barrel.
At the same time, the Greek electricity market It moved in an opposite direction. The average current value declined by 27%, €95/MWh from €131/MWh last year, due to increased participation of RES in the energy mix.
In the balance sheet, total investments in the first quarter reached €ECU 186 million, almost triple from €ECU 66 million from last year. The net borrowing went up to €2,676 billion from €2,486 billion, increasing 8%.
Despite the increase in lending, the leverage ratio remained in 47%, while the group has liquidity and credit lines above €1.3 billion The average loan cost was set at 3,4%, less than 65 basis points compared to last year.
The great weight is now transferred to the rest of 2026. The administration says that the second quarter began with strong refining and petrochemical margins, while Aspropyrgos has returned to full operation.
If current conditions are maintained in the second half, HELLENIQ ENERGY will orbit one of the most powerful functional uses in recent years, now having two strong profitability axes: the refineries and the increasingly large electricity and gas sector.
In the long-term diagram of the 55-day Fibo, I would like once again to point out that upward flight above its shackles for 6,500 days of level of €9,20. A split that in 55 sessions had to take place since summer 2008. This technical phenomenon can lead in the medium term the price of the share in the zone of €11.60 with €12,00.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
