Last Tuesday a small group of energy company managers passed the White House threshold in order to discuss with President Donald Trump her concerns over the lengthening of the disruption to energy supplies.
A few days later, at dawn in May, the price of crude oil reached a high four-year, to $162.31 a barrel (with the circulation of information on new U.S. strikes in Iran), before falling back to $14.
The fact that during the trampala the price of oil exceeded even the psychological high of the date of the start of Russia's war in Ukraine is capable of demonstrating that the energy market is in a transition phase.
Transitional, but mainly historical, as the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, from which it passes over 20% of the oil and gas used by the global market, triggers dramatic changes.
One of them, the weakening of Export Agency for Petroleum Producer Countries (OPEC) and the questioning of Saudi hegemony by the withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from its ranks, at a time when everything seems to be redefined.
American oil seems to be the big winner, with Russia taking advantage of the price rally on its side and abolishing the important discount with which it has so far sold to energy thirsty China and India, while Germany's PCK refinery, one of its largest, sees Moscow closing the Druzba pipeline canal that carried oil from Kazakhstan to the heart of Europe.
With the Gulf countries urgently seeking solutions before their customers turn to other suppliers, the producers of the American continent are speeding up to meet demand, while at the bottom of the energy war, like a final epic film battle, the world's two largest economies raise their weapons.
The US is evolving to the great boss of the fossil fuel market, while China is holding the reins of solar energy production technology, at a time when energy transition to RES is increasingly favoured. Who's gonna be the big winner? Or, better yet, will there be a winner or are we led to a new order of things with a new sharing of pie in the global energy market?
Abnormal changes
The disruption that the war in Iran and the substantial closure of the Straits of Hormuz have brought on the energy market seems to redefine it based on the losers and the winners in it, especially as the reduction of global reserves pushes economies.
As far as the Straits are concerned, the (non) movement of tankers and LPG/LNG carriers in them determines the rather unprecedented trampalla with the prices of crude oil. This trampala, i.e. sharp changes in the price of oil, is largely attributed to the end of future contracts.
These are agreements for buying or selling an asset on a fixed date – and in this case, the current Brent futures contract for delivery in June ended last Thursday.
This, analysts explain, also contributed to the fall of his honor, until rumors of new war action that Trump is reportedly considering in Iran to detonate a new rally. Earlier, the most active contract for July was negotiated lower, about $110 a barrel.
And why is that important? Slow oil is the main ingredient from which gasoline and diesel drive and heating arise, with the increase in costs since the start of the war in Iran leading to an increase in gas prices, expensive product transfers and trigger inflationary hell on the market.
The great losers of all this disruption include, above all, Arab oil producers. Saudi Arabia saw the reins of its sovereignty in OPEC - to which Iran also belongs, and Russia also cooperates through OPEC+ - openly questioned after the departure of the UAE (which resent their non-protection from the Arab world during the attack by Iran), but also much of its clientele moving.
A typical example was seen in our country last week when Motor Oil, a traditional partner of the oil companies of the Arab peninsula, ordered and received an American crude. The need for the economy to continue to move and not to disturb its calm by reducing stocks is important.
Moscow is well aware of this, which sees a number of economies in Asia and Africa, such as Singapore and Egypt, which are directly dependent on Arab oil, having entered an energy crisis that even leads to lockdown.
That is why it abolishes the significant discount (up to $12 below the benchmark) which it has so far used as a lure for the Chinese and Indian markets, while also attempting to force Europe energy.
Such a move is its revised export programme, whereby Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany are discontinued through Russia's Druzba pipeline. These last year had reached a total of 2.146 million tons, about 43,000 barrels a day, 44% increased compared to 2024.
Extensive damage
The pressure in Europe is increasing and the Iranian strike in Qatar: missiles hit the Ras Laffan complex, causing extensive damage to the world's largest liquefied gas plant. The facilities hit produce 17% of the country's LNG exports, about 13 million tonnes per year. It is foreseen that it will take three to five years to fully repair the damage.
With gas prices being launched over a high three-year period, the ECB said that a prolonged shutdown of production from Ras Laffan would push euro area inflation to 6.3% and cause a short recession. The price increases already added EUR 7 billion to Europe's energy accounts in just two weeks, according to the European Commission.
Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world's largest LNG plant, was hit by Iranian missiles. These plants produce 17% of the country's energy exports or about 13 million tonnes per year and will take from three to five years to repair
Qatar, which is faced with one of the most critical economic periods in recent years, after attacks on energy installations in the industrial cities of Ras Lafan and Messaied, seeks synergies with UAE and Oman, countries with which it did not even have diplomatic relations until a few years ago, but now have a common place to leave OPEC. His ability to withstand the blow is an existential issue.
Not only because QatarEnergy decided to suspend the production and exports of liquefied natural gas, with an impact on related industries, such as those of aluminium, petrochemicals, sun and fertilizers, but also because the crisis simultaneously raises broader questions about the reliability of supply, the trust of partners and the limits of resilience to an increasingly unstable global energy market.
With exports discontinued for almost two months, the impact is widened and includes direct revenue losses, reduction of missions, supply chain disturbances and uncertainty in long-term contracts with major importers in Asia and Europe.
The main impact for QatarEnergy, as this is force majeure that relieves it of the legal consequences of delays, is the cost it entails for its reputation. Large buyers take into account not only contractual terms, but also the supplier's ability to deliver consistently in times of intensity.
Therefore, any prolonged disturbance opens the way to competitors such as the United States, Australia, Algeria and Russia to strengthen their positions in sensitive markets.
Canal of despair
With the Straits of Hormuz being de facto closed, the Gulf countries, ahead of the risk that their customers will permanently turn to other suppliers, seek alternatives to restore the flow of oil and gas to them.
Qatar, for example, bases much on the Dolphin gas pipeline, which carries LNG – since 2006, when it was completed – from the North Field of Qatar to Tauilla, UAE and from there to Oman. With a capacity of 3.2 billion cubic feet daily, it is the only gas interconnection between the three countries, operating uninterruptedly even during the period of diplomatic blockade.
Temporarily Emirates supports bypassing the Straits by channeling 40% of Abu Dhabi's hydrocarbon exports through the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline) pipeline. With a length of 380 km ADCOP carries crude oil from Hampshan, Abu Dhabi to the Fujira terminal in the Gulf of Oman, with a capacity of 1.5–1.8 million barrels daily.
But is that enough? It is a drop in the ocean, about 2.6 million barrels daily of the capacity held by alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines, less than 13% of the total flow, in front of the approximately 20 million barrels daily that were the oil flow through the Straits in 2025.
An extension of ADCOP is already planned with a second pipeline to Fujira, but also upgrades to Oman's Dukem Port, so that UAE, Qatar and Oman can channel a significant part of their exports directly into the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Straits.
For its part, Saudi Arabia has approached the UAE, Qatar and Oman to build together a road corridor to Haifa or a canal to the Arab Sea. The canal could be longer than 950 km long and bypass the Straits completely, with the cost being gigantic and the time required to approach the decade, but it is a project that would permanentize the rehabilitation of Arab countries from Hormuz.
One big question, however, is whether or not such an investment is worth over time, as the energy market is increasingly transforming and turning to clean energy production solutions.
The Rise of America
In the open sea a flotilla of empty, huge tankers turns westward, heading for the US. There mining companies and refineries rub their hands, as they are the great winners of the war in Iran and the strangulation caused in the energy market.
Aimed to meet the market needs facing the greatest supply crisis in History, about 2 million barrels of American crude will be loaded into 30 oil tankers carrying them to the world markets.
Six times more than last month are tankers heading for loading in the US these days, while American exports through terminals have already increased 30% by now reaching 5.2 million barrels daily.
Essentially, 50% of the blocked daily flows of the Bay's 10 million oil barrels through the Straits are covered by the American slow being exported. Similarly, jet fuel exports from the US doubled, reaching historical high levels, as European airlines begin flight cuts as long as Old Epirus attempts to stabilise its supplies.
But that's not all. As the market now sees the traditional dominance of the Gulf oil-producing countries in the energy market being questioned, it observes America's rise.
Not only the US, but more generally the entire continent, as analysts expect that the rise in crude production from the USA and Canada will continue and in the course of decades production from Latin America will cover more than half of the world's oil supply.
Brazil and Argentina are expected to add about 2.5 million barrels daily to their production at decade level, while if the prices of the crude remain over $100, it will become highly advantageous to produce an additional 2.1 million barrels daily from southern America.
High prices are expected to favour other oil-producing countries (a question is how Venezuela will move in the post-Maduro era, with its outdated equipment) or put new deposits, such as those of the Greek territory into play. This is because high fuel prices favour large investments from oil in research and development of oil fields and make mining more advantageous based on profit from the final selling price.
Reorder
At the same time, the prevalence of Americans in the energy chessboard marks a possible rearrangement of global energy supplies and poses the greatest threat to the future energy sovereignty of the Middle East.
What is mainly threatened is Saudi Arabia, which based on its endless oil reserves had become the world's largest supplier of crude oil and the de facto leader of the OPEC cartel and its allies. Within a few weeks the war in Iran has eliminated 1/3 of its crude oil production and shook the hegemony of its kingdom at OPEC.
Re-launching the closed oil and gas deposits of the region and the infrastructure damaged by drones is expected to cost between 34-58 billion ECU. dollars, according to analysts from consultant firm Rystad Energy. The process of restoring production to previous levels could take years if it was finally achieved.
The final battle
It should not be a surprise, but in the reshuffle of the energy market, from which the American oil industry is currently a major winner, it seems that the final battle will be fought between the world's two largest economies.
This is because China can currently be completely dependent on oil - as far as its industrial production is concerned - but has been betting on a completely different strategy: for decades it has invested and gained its dominance in the supply chains of the main components of clean energy technologies, from wind turbines to solar panels and batteries.
Double exports
Beijing's industrial supremacy has helped the world's largest energy importer to develop also to the world's largest supplier of clean energy production technologies, taking a share of between 60%-85% of the world's Renewable Energy Market.
Capitalising the international transition from fossil fuels to clean forms of energy, Beijing, explain analysts, exploits the energy crisis with insecurity in terms of stocks and supply of fossil fuels, but also extreme fluctuations in their prices.
Thus, since the first days of the war in Iran and during the first month of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, China doubled its exports to solar energy production materials, reaching historically high levels. Exports of 68 GW were 12 times the total solar power of Greece in 2025 (5.7 GW).
The continuation of the fossil fuel crisis favours China that has invested in solar energy. Only last year did solar energy cover more than 1/4 of global demand rise.
The production of electricity from photovoltaics was ejected by 600 terrawatt hours within 2025, recording the largest annual rise ever for any form of power out of recovery periods after crises.
Η ενίσχυση αυτή κάλυψε περίπου το 70% της παγκόσμιας αύξησης στην παραγωγή ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας, με τη συνολική παραγωγή από ηλιακή ενέργεια να αγγίζει σχεδόν τις 2.700 τεραβατώρες, υπερδιπλάσια σε σύγκριση με τα επίπεδα του 2022.
Φωτογραφίες: Getty images / Ideal image, REUTERS, Shutterstock
