Currently, in addition to the nationwide polls run by media and parties, fifty surveys in prefectures and in the constituencies of Attica may be ongoing. We're talking about the golden age of galapads. Each Member, and aspiring Member, before entering the battle of the cross, gives 3,000-4,000 euros and makes a telephone search in his constituency in a 400-500-person sample.
The sample is too long to understand where it is classified and what hope it has. When nationwide investigations of 1,200 people are considered absolutely reliable, 500 people in a small area are more than sufficient to provide the critical information requested by the principal. And the crucial question is essentially one. Am I going out or not? It is of course a question that moves on quicksand.
How long will the party take nationwide? How many Members will he elect in this constituency with its potentially higher and lower nationwide percentage? And how many parties will pass 3%, because every party that enters Parliament removes 9-10 MPs from the largest. And what election are we talking about? First or second? I want you here. You answer all these riddles and then I will tell you for sure whether you will receive parliamentary compensation in the next four years.
I put aside the other riddle. There is always a possibility that the leader will plant at the last minute in the constituency of each person, a unfortunate new candidate within the «renewal»Some telestar or footballer or singer or actor, who with his glamour recognition and without much effort, will make all professional politicians go away. Eventually, more hope is given when he bets on the racetrack than when he makes plans in politics.
And we now come to the bone of this crazy political universe. Of the candidates of all parties who will order an investigation into their district, only the Southwest candidates have a chance to understand something. On the basis of today's polling rates of the parties, at 400 respondents, about 120 will respond. «vote ND», 60 will say Tsipras and 35-40 Androulaki or Karistianou. All right, in the 120 New Democratic voters some candidates will stand out in the crusade and realize they're elected. But go find the 35 Pasocian voters within 400, and then see which of the 4 or 5 candidates of PASOK, these 35 will cross. He's looking for fleas in a haystack.
But be careful. Of the New Democratic candidates some will understand that they are certainly elected and some that are in the gray zone of «elected – not elected» depending on developments. They'll fight it, hoping things will come favorably. But there will also be some at the bottom of the list who will realize that they have no hope in any scenario. They are either current MPs or potential candidates. What are they gonna do?
They have a temptation. Call Samara and tell him «Dismissed». With the hope that Antonis will get a 3%, he will elect 10 MPs and that the ball can sit in their own area and be in Parliament. While as Southwest candidates they have no chance at all. «Very cynical» You say. For several of them, I don’t think so. Here we will be...
