The severe escalation of tension in the Middle East and the prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, spark new oil price ejecting scenarios over $110 a barrel. While Brent's price is currently moving around $85, giving the impression that the market does not see black clouds on the horizon, below the surface accumulate several risk outbreaks.
The biggest problem today concerns the much smaller margins that the states and markets have to absorb a new energy shock. Because the 4 «pillows» That protected the markets, they run out dangerously.
In other words, analysts are not so concerned about its approximately 1.5 billion oil barrels. «lose» the world market, but for the inability to deal with the crisis in the event the war does not continue.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent will average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $75 in 2027, which means that its basic scenario is not a crisis scenario. However, the American bank warns that prices may be ejected over $110 if delays in recovering exports from the Persian Gulf continue.
Whatever resistance the oil market has shown to date towards the greatest energy shock over the last 50 years does not mean that the risks have disappeared. On the contrary, in a new report the International Monetary Fund warns that the market has lasted in the early months of the crisis thanks to a series of temporary measures. «pillows».
Let us not forget that the initial expert estimates indicated that if the Straits of Hormuz remained closed for over a month, the market would be facing serious problems and we have already over 4.5 months of war.
In the first energy shock that struck the world economy in early March, the market also endured why «It was burning.» the surplus. You see, before the U.S.-Iran conflict broke out, the world market was running with a surplus of about 2 million barrels a day. Consequently, it could absorb some of the initial vibrations.
At the same time, other measures were taken, such as the use of security reserves (strategic and non-strategic), the increase in production in the US, as well as the reduction of markets from China, which is the world's largest energy consumer. Of the historically high of 11.6 million barrels a day in 2025, China reduced crude imports to about 7 million barrels a day in June, which is the lowest level of the decade.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proceeded to release 400 million oil barrels, and Washington has also decided to market significant quantities of US strategic reserves.
So what is to come after the new US attacks on Iran and Tehran against the Gulf countries?
«With security reserves now exhausted, the system is more exposed if disturbances continue or escalate again, while the effort to restore stocks will keep the market tight even while the pronunciation recovers», warns the IMF.
The next two months are extremely critical. Because on the one hand the new disorder in the Straits takes weeks to reach the market and on the other hand, if the war continues, the reserves will continue to shrink, while oil prices can easily be ejected over $100.
Fear increases markets because the level in the reservoirs of strategic and commercial stocks has declined significantly, while non- Gulf producers cannot increase production indefinitely. At the same time, maritime transport is faced with a terrible turmoil.
In addition to the Straits of Hormuz, Iran called the day before yesterday for Huthi to close the Red Sea oil route in the Strait of Bab el-Madeb. The greater the risk, the greater the cost of transport, and the global economy is at risk. «suffocation».
Για όλους αυτούς τους λόγους οι αγορές τιμολογούν έλλειψη άμεσης προσφοράς. Η καμπύλη του Brent γύρισε έντονα στο λεγόμενο backwardation (το συμβόλαιο του πρώτου μήνα διαπραγματευόταν στις 14 Ιουλίου περίπου 8,9 δολάρια υψηλότερα από το συμβόλαιο έξι μήνες μετά), κάτι που δείχνει σύμφωνα με την Saxo Bank ότι η αγορά αναμένει ότι η διαθεσιμότητα πετρελαίου θα παραμείνει περιορισμένη τις επόμενες εβδομάδες.
Για μία ακόμη φορά το πλήγμα είναι μεγαλύτερο για την Ευρώπη. Η Γηραιά Ήπειρος καλείται να μπει στη χειμερινή περίοδο με τον πονοκέφαλο της αναπλήρωσης των αποθηκών φυσικού αερίου. Οι υψηλές τιμές του LNG και ο έντονος ανταγωνισμός με την Ασία καθιστούν ολοένα ακριβότερη την αναπλήρωση. Ακόμα και αν οι αποθήκες γεμίσουν, αυτό θα έχει γίνει με μεγαλύτερο κόστος και ένα νέο γεωπολιτικό επεισόδιο ή ένας βαρύς χειμώνας, μπορούν να αναθερμάνουν την πληθωριστική κρίση.
