The Apostle Manthus
Something's not timing right on the dashboard. Once again the financial sizes are rising, but the valuations are left behind. The Thrace Plastics and ECON, this distance is now beginning to appear with numbers rather than estimates.
I'll start with the case of Plastic Thrace (PLATH), where it acquires a special interest in anyone who reads behind the titles and not only remains in the linear evolution of sales. So the company moves at a time when the demand in Europe remains moderate, but its economic size is rising level.
The turnover of the company has reached EUR 389,6 million, with rise 5,2%However, the actual "message" is hidden in the fact that sales volumes increased by 7,2%, an element meaning aid for market shares in difficult circumstancesAt the same time, EBITDA was formed in EUR 48,4 million, recording rise 17%, with margin 12,4% from 11.2% a year ago. Even more impressive is the development in the final line, where net profits reached EUR 19,6 million, rising 77,7%.
The company thus manages to increases operating margins in a price pressure environment, something directly linked to verticalization, cost control and production optimization. The increase in the gross margin in 21,9% confirms that the revenue quality is improving.
On the part of capital structure, the picture remains balanced. The net lending was formed in EUR 56,9 million, with index Net Borrowing / EBITDA at 1,18x, a level considered particularly low for an industrial company with an international presence . EUR 277.5 million create a strong pillow for investments and distributions.
Here, too, a substantial detail is revealed: the company has entered a permanent loyalty track of shareholders. . For the use of 2025 dividend will be distributed EUR 0,24 per share, which at a price of EUR 4,04 translates into partial yield of approximately 5.9%.
If we go through the valuation, the picture becomes even more interesting. Capitalised EUR 176,7 million and EBITDA EUR 48,4 million, the share is traded in EV/EBITDA near 5,0–5,5x (taking into account net borrowing). In the European plastic and packaging industry, the respective companies usually move between 7x and 9x EV/EBITDA, and in times of stability two-digit valuations arrive.
This means that even a conservative convergence towards 7x EV/EBITDA gives enterprise value close to EUR 340 million. Removing net lending results in potential capitalization around EUR 280 million, i.e. share price close to EUR 6,30 – 6,50. In a more aggressive scenario 8x, valuation is transferred to EUR 7+.
In addition to the basic sizes, the geographical dispersal and activity structure of the group acquires particular gravity. The Thrace Plastics work in 9 countries, with a sales network in 80 countries and a productive basis fully aligned with the European market. This creates physical risk compensation and capacity to absorb demand fluctuations.
At the same time, consumption above the 120,000 tonnes of raw material and the use of recycled materials above 15,000 tonnes strengthen the company's position in an environment where the circular economy begins to affect valuations as well.
Overall, the market currently attributes multipliers referring to a mature, low-growth industry to the title. At the same time, operating sizes move at rates that escape this profile, creating a distance between valuation and real dynamics. At this point the investment margin begins to form, as even a partial convergence towards sectoral averages translates into significantly higher capitalisation and share price.
In diagrams the share should enter with force within the range of variation EUR 4,26 to EUR 4,60 To say that he goes for an intense upward move that will bring her to the gates of EUR 5 to EUR 5,20.
I continue with the ECON, where the numbers of 2025 draw the valuation line two to three steps above. Turnover in the year 2025 rose to EUR 95,52 million, gross profits reached 21.04m euros, the EBITDA of the group was set at EUR 16,94 million and net earnings after tax at EUR 11,40 million. Even stronger is the quality of this performance: the gross margin rose to 22,03% from 19,10%, while the EBITDA margin went to 17,73%. For a technical company of this capitalization, this shift in margins has a particular weight, because it testifies best project selection, costing discipline and more efficient contract execution.
Where one has to stand is that the ECTER did not only grow up in turnover. Improved balance sheet, liquidity and revenue visibility at the same time. The total liabilities decreased to EUR 43,52 million from EUR 47,53 million, the traffic liquidity rose to 2.08 from 1,60, while net borrowing remained virtually negligible, since the company itself is talking about "marginal net debt" just 205 thousand euros. This means that the current valuation stands on a company that now has a stronger financial pressure, not on a business that is pursuing growth with heavy bank charges.
From there on, the big difference is in the portfolio. The unexecuted was EUR 115 million at the end of 2025 And that's enough. About EUR 180 million on the date of drawing up the financial statements. This change changes the pace of the next two years that appears to be on the way to the EUR 300 million. Here is one more thing added which is the first full year of incorporation Summer Senses Luxury Resort where he gave EUR 4,23 million and EUR 0,86 million EBITDASo the ECTER doesn't just stay locked in the classic contract.
With current data, i.e. EUR 118,12 million capitalisation and value EUR 4,26, the share is estimated at approximately P/E 10.4 times, EV/Sales 1,24 times and EV/EBITDA nearly 7 times, based on the published figures of 2025 and net lending of EUR 0,205 million.
On the Greek market, large groups move at levels higher than the 9 times EV/EBITDA. This is exactly where reading begins to stand out as ECT, with EV/EBITDA close to 7 times, sits well below the range while at the same time displays EBITDA margin 17.7%, significantly higher than the average of Greek contractors. This creates an imbalance as well. the market puts it on the same line as lower profitability companies.
If you open the lens to Europe, the gap becomes bigger. Its large construction groups Euronext and the European market, such as Vinci, ACS and Eiffage, move in EV/EBITDA multipliers 9 to 13 times, with an average of around 12 times.
So if we put the bar on 9 times EV/EBITDA, then Enterprise Value is formed around EUR 152.5 million. Given that net lending is negligible, capitalization moves to the same level, i.e. close to EUR 150–153 million. With about 27.7 million shares, this translates into share price EUR 5,40–5,50. In relation to the current levels of EUR 4,26, we are talking about an upward difference in the order of +27% to +30%, without changing anything dramatic in sizes — only the market pays a level already considered normal for a company with such profitability.
If we go to the average, in 12 times EV/EBITDA, then the valuation changes category. Enterprise Value goes up to about EUR 203 million, meaning corresponding capitalization around EUR 200–203 millionIn terms of price, this gives levels close to EUR 7,20–7,35 per share. There the total distance from today's levels reaches about +70%We are now talking about full convergence with European multiples given to companies with greater visibility and more mature pipeline projects.
As the unexecuted goes up and out EUR 200 million moving towards EUR 300 million and the company opens the door for larger scale projects, then this the "distance" between 9x with 12x EV/EBITDA is the first thing that may begin to close.
Chartically the stock appears to have taken the uphill road to meet the resistance in EUR 4,60. Pass over there will give room for a climb to the level of EUR 5,34 to EUR 5,50.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
