With around EUR 1 billion of financial space already available and the expectation that the good progress of Budget will create additional margins by September, Maximus and Ministry of National Economy and Finance have gone through the most critical phase of planning for this year's announcements ECH. It is not only a question of which measures are in place in the budget, but of how a package with as broad a social footprint as possible will be developed, which will convey the political message that no large social or professional group is left out.
The direction given by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis it is clear: the available financial space should be used in such a way as to allow the best possible dissemination of benefits. After last year's interventions focused mainly on housing policy, young people and pensioners, this year's design gives more weight to professional, Small and medium-sized enterprises and legal persons, but without leaving out employees, families, property owners and pensioners. The aim is to form a balanced mix of tax reliefs, development incentives and targeted aid that will spread to most of society.
At the same time, the government seeks to present a fully cost-effective plan, compatible with the new European financial rules, in view of the country's gradual entry into an electoral path.
In this context, it is already under way to unblock the recommendations submitted by the relevant ministries and bodies, with the aim before the August break that the first comprehensive picture of the measures that can be financed has been drawn up.
Then the Minister for Economic Affairs and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis will present to the Prime Minister a set of alternative proposals, from which the final announcements of the ITH will emerge after the summer break.
A key role in design is played by the available financial area, as it will depend on it both on the range and content of the interventions to be announced to the INT. With today's data, the financial staff believe that it has already set a margin of around EUR 1 billion for new permanent interventions in 2027. However, the current estimate is that by September this amount can be increased as long as the positive progress of public finances continues.
An important part of optimism comes from from the implementation of the State budget, which in the five months of January to May showed a primary surplus significantly above the objective, while tax revenue moved above forecasts, mainly thanks to increased revenue from VAT and income taxes.
Although the financial staff recognize that part of the over-performance is also due to convening factors or time transfer of revenue, they estimate that, if the same dynamics are maintained in the summer months, with the support of tourism, consumption and measures against tax evasion, an additional financial area could be created to enable the final package to be strengthened.
These expectations are also based on the further performance of anti-tax evasion digital tools, the extension of the tax base, in the course of tourism and private consumption, but also in discussions with the European Commission on the implementation of the new financial rules.
At the same time, it is considered whether the margins provided can be used. the European escape clause for specific investment costs, without jeopardising the achievement of the targets for high primary surpluses and continuing the de-escalation of public debt.
The design also affects its directions Bank of Greece, which recommends that the additional budgetary area should be given priority over three axes: targeted support for the most vulnerable households, permanent tax and insurance reliefs that mainly reduce the weight of work and investment incentives that enhance business productivity.
Παράλληλα προειδοποιεί ότι οι γενικευμένες οριζόντιες παροχές έχουν υψηλό δημοσιονομικό κόστος και περιορισμένη αποτελεσματικότητα, υπογραμμίζοντας ότι οι μόνιμες μειώσεις φόρων μπορούν να στηριχθούν μόνο σε μια ισχυρότερη φορολογική βάση, στη μείωση του κενού ΦΠΑ και στη συνέχιση της μάχης κατά της φοροδιαφυγής.
Δεν είναι τυχαίο ότι πολλά από τα μέτρα που βρίσκονται ήδη στο τραπέζι του οικονομικού επιτελείου κινούνται προς αυτή την κατεύθυνση. Μεταξύ αυτών περιλαμβάνονται η μείωση της προκαταβολής φόρου για τις επιχειρήσεις, η κατάργηση του τέλους επιτηδεύματος για τα νομικά πρόσωπα, νέες μειώσεις ασφαλιστικών εισφορών, αλλαγές στη φορολογία εισοδήματος, επενδυτικά φορολογικά κίνητρα και παρεμβάσεις που συνδέονται με τη στέγαση και την ενίσχυση του διαθέσιμου εισοδήματος των νοικοκυριών.
