With the price of gold moving marginally over $4,000/oz, within a narrow range of values from $4,010 up to $4.315, even the most conservative and long-term investors, feel particularly concerned. Since the behaviour of gold reminds more of regional stock, despite the harshest and most timeless asset.
Gold has downgraded both the 200-day mobile average ($4.403), as well as 50 days ($4,176). And negotiates under «supertrend resistance», i.e. the long-term resistance of $4.135. Technical analysts shall identify the following strong support in the event of loss of $Four thousand, $3,980 and $3,940. And already the previous little downward intra-session approach to $3,983, has caused new waves of concern. At the same time other indicators give the picture of a oversold market. Which is an indication that short-term pressures may have been absorbed by buyers.
So we are dealing with a process of correcting the price of gold that is completed or with a complete collapse from the high of $5,595/oz?
The upward explosion of the price of gold, the recording of new high peaks and the violent decline of its prices, have altered the way investors face gold. Gold was until just a few months ago the safe investment option of wealthy investors, the powerful reserve weapon of central bankers and compensation against all risks, economic and geopolitical.
But from the third quarter of 2025, gold was also converted into an attractive short-term investment product that followed an upward route offering profits and goodwill to microinvestors and traders. Mostly to investors who chose to move in gold through specialised ETFs or derivative contracts. That is, to investors who chose the so-called «paper» gold.
As a result, all analysts now refer both to the long-term trend in gold that depends on the movements of governments and central banks, and to the short-term trend that has stock investors as a benchmark. Who see gold as another stock and speculative product, stripped of the glamour and glamour it has maintained since ancient times.
What did investors expect from gold on a short-term level? Gold won by the dollar's clinch. Winning from geopolitical tensions. To win from rising «voltage» which reminded of the fury of cryptonomy, technology, and Artificial Intelligence. Come on, though, that positive account began to lose its bases.
Because gold unlike shares does not offer sales income and does not give dividends. It takes patience and waiting. Two features that rarely meet in small investors.
'Cause the dollar didn't roll. And given that gold moves backwards from the dollar, since it is its valuation currency, its rise, led to a drop in gold.
Because the whole framework of the United States' monetary policy has changed. Persistent inflation and government deficits discount Fed's entry into a period of higher interest rates and thus a stronger dollar.
Unlike in a long horizon everything remains almost unchanged. Demand from central banks remains stable. The attempt to reduce the dependence of several economies on the dollar and on state American bonds continues, regardless of the volatility of the price of gold. Certification that gold acts as a strategic asset reserve, free of credit risk that incorporates other financial instruments.
In the exhibitions of specialized houses that monitor metals, key points for the potential negative course of the price of gold are the highest real interest rates, the strong dollar, reduced inputs to the ETFs gold and weakening physical demand from China and India.
On the contrary, the return of gold to significantly higher levels, according to them, will be based on the continued increase in government debt in large economies as well as on the incessant gold markets by central banks and several governments of emerging economies that continue to increase their reserves by reducing their dependence on dollarly related products.
Estimates for the progress of the gold price of the largest investment houses are as follows. J.P. Morgan sees $5,000 – $5,250 in 2026 and $5,400 -$6,300 in 2027. UBS, the $5,500 for 2026 and $5,900 for 2027. Bank of America gives the target price $6,000 by 2027, Goldman Sachs, the $4,900 for 2026 and Morgan Stanley for $5,200 for 2027.
In short, the possibility of the complete collapse of gold due to the disappointment of small investors and the rise of the dollar is not reflected in the worst scenarios of stock analysts either. Evenly, based on the target prices they set, returns from 25% to 50% are possible.
