The Apostle Manthus
The four Systemic banks enter a new development path with features that a few years ago seemed difficult to coexist: strong profitability, high capital adequacy, increasing distributions to shareholders and at the same time two-digit equity returns. The new analysis of Optima Bank It raises target prices for all four banks, maintaining a market recommendation across the industry. Behind the upgrades and beyond the estimates for the profits of 2026, there is the picture that is formed by 2028, with loans development, increased commissions, strengthening health management and bancassurance activities and distributions expected to exceed EUR 7.6 billion for the industry.
The Eurobank It stands out as Optima's top choice. With current value EUR 4,335 and target value EUR 5,05, the rise margin is formed near the 16,5%, while the bank displays the highest level of operational profitability and the strongest diversification of sources of profitability. Above 50% of adjusted net earnings It now comes from activities outside Greece, with Cyprus, Bulgaria and Luxembourg offering additional sources of development. Optima estimates that net profits will reach EUR 1,72 billion in 2028, while revenue from procurement is expected to increase from EUR 770 million in 2025 at over EUR 1 billion in 2028Special interest is the forthcoming acquisition of Eurolife Life, which is estimated to add about EUR 100 million annual commissionsAt the same time, the bank is expected to maintain ROTE 16.7%, indicator CET1 over 14% and partial yields close to 7.5% in 2028, a combination which few European banks can demonstrate. In terms of diagram analysis, the share appears to test the upward split of 4,40 euros to pave the way for the zone of 4,80 to 5 EUR.
The National Bank remain the option for those seeking strong balance sheets and increased visibility in future distributions. Target value EUR 18,10 against current value EUR 15,465, the upward margin is formed near the 17%. The large advantage of the bank lies in its capital reserve. Optima predicts that even after high distributions, the indicator CET1 will remain close to 16% in 2028, level higher than most competitors. In 2025 the bank made an extraordinary repurchase of shares in the amount EUR 300 million, while Optima leaves the possibility of additional distributions open in the coming years. Similarly important is the quality of the portfolio, as the index of non-performing exposures is estimated to be limited to 2%, with coverage approaching 122%. On the profitability front, net profits are expected in EUR 1,44 billion in 2028, while cooperation with Allianz creates additional opportunities for growth in insurance and supplies. Charts, the stock wants to create one Buying Foot over EUR 15, to move towards the EUR 16 threshold.
The Piraeus Bank presents the most direct bet on the progress of the Greek economy. Target value EUR 10,52 and current value EUR 9,426, the rise margin reaches about 11,6%However, the actual power of the investment case is in cash distributions. The management has set the target of capital repayments of the amount EUR 5 billion by 2030, almost exclusively through dividends. Its integration National Insurance it creates one of the most powerful Bancassurance platforms in the Greek market, while insurance revenues, asset management and health management are projected to increase at two-digit rates. Optima estimates that net profits will rise to EUR 1.36 billion in 2028, ROTE 15.9%, cost-to-income index 33,6% and NPE indicator in 1,8%Special value is also the fact that Piraeus already achieved the strongest stock performance of the industry in 2026, which confirms the confidence of the market in the execution of its business plan. On the two-day chart the up-and-coming escape over EUR 9 has turned the look towards the zone of EUR 10.
The Alpha Bank is likely to hide most strategic movements below the number surface. Target value EUR 4,79 against current value EUR 4,22, Optima sees an increase margin of about 13,5%. Η τράπεζα επεκτείνεται ταυτόχρονα σε επενδυτική τραπεζική, asset management, wealth management και ασφαλιστικές εργασίες, αξιοποιώντας τις εξαγορές των AstroBank, Alpha Trust και Axia Ventures αλλά και τη στρατηγική συνεργασία με τη UniCredit. Οι προβλέψεις της Optima δείχνουν αύξηση των εσόδων από προμήθειες από 501 εκατ. ευρώ το 2025 σε 695 εκατ. ευρώ το 2028, ενώ τα καθαρά κέρδη εκτιμάται ότι θα προσεγγίσουν τα 1,15 δισ. ευρώ. Παράλληλα, ο δείκτης NPE αναμένεται να υποχωρήσει στο 2,7%, η κεφαλαιακή επάρκεια να διατηρηθεί κοντά στο 14,5% και οι συνολικές αποδόσεις προς τους μετόχους να αυξηθούν από 6% το 2026 σε 8,5% το 2028. Το Capital Markets Day του δεύτερου εξαμήνου αναμένεται να προσφέρει περισσότερες λεπτομέρειες για το επόμενο στάδιο αυτής της στρατηγικής. Ο ανοδικός στόχος στη διαγραμματική ανάλυση της μετοχής είναι η ζώνη των 4,50 με 4,74 ευρώ.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
***Αναδημοσίευση από την εφημερίδα “Κεφάλαιο”
