The results of the quarterly review of the indicators are currently expected. MSCI And the eyes are on the index finger MSCI Standard Greece for emerging markets. The interest is twofold: Both for any deductions from the index (now made up of 8 shares), and for an early change in the weighting of the index downwards which may cause outflows of tens of millions of euros.
Our market remains for another year in emerging markets from this house, as it needs a period of normalization of any changes, a development that refers to stock deductions until the domestic capital market is incorporated into the developed classification (mature market).
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This adjustment period, therefore, is what has been heavily on market professionals lately.
That is, if from today's rearrangement, if it is finally done, it will also impose the inputs or outflows of rebalancing on MSCI Greece at the end of May which shares will come out, if they come out, after it is heavily heard in Jumbo's exit market, or which shares will enter, if they enter, since the period of return to mature markets is short. After all, in four months, in September, the upgrade comes from FTSE and STOXX.
In any case, the entry into MSCI, even if it currently concerns the index of emerging markets, concerns only one share with the data so far, GENTER. The company meets the criteria for total capitalisation and value of free distribution set by the house but there are other factors that are measured such as the course of other stock exchanges and similar enterprises to make the final decision by MSCI.
GEK TERNA last week received an investment grade from two very serious houses, attended by all foreign investors, Moody’s and S&P. For those who are well aware of foreign rating houses, Moody’s is especially not given to any country or to any company.
The emergence of GEK TERNA also says a lot about the group created by George Peristeris, but also for our market which has been listed in this range, but also for the economy that ten years ago was on the verge of bankruptcy and today they are created, developing and developing businesses like GEK TERNA. There is also Titan who meets the standards but because he is based abroad there is no question of being included in the index.
What scares the market is an early reduction in the weighting of the index for Greece. The weight of our market today in MSCI emerging markets is 0.57%. The weighting of the Greek indicator when our market becomes mature is estimated at 0.40%, according to the same house, which has spoken of a smooth transition. Market estimates are referring to a reduction in the weight of the Greek index, as of now, without having anything for granted. It is estimated that the weighting could in the first phase decrease to 0.50% with 0.47% and then decrease to «Catch» 0.40%. If that happens, the outflows may start tomorrow and culminate in rebalancing at the end of May. Overall, if the balance is reduced, outflows can reach EUR 400 million.
OTE, PPC, Allwyn together with banks in the index of developed markets
The positive thing is - as they argue market factors - that the picture for the Greek stock market in view of the country's reclassification in the developed markets is now gaining clearer characteristics and, according to the latest MSCI simulations, Greece's presence in the Developed Markets indicators is expected to be stronger than the initial estimates of international investment houses.
In practice, Greek representation does not appear to be limited solely to the four systemic banks – Eurobank, National Bank, Piraeus Bank and Alpha Bank – but also to strong non-banking groups, such as OTE, the Allwyn and PPC.
Especially the last one after the capital increase changes track at capitalization level, reaching 11 – 12 billion euros.
These estimates are, of course, based on a simulation of MSCI with January data, but without defining the definitive picture.
The final assessment will take place in May 2027, when the international house implements the full eligibility criteria for the integration of the Greek market into the environment of developed markets.
However, the data so far show that Greece will not only have more participants in the Developed Markets indicators, but also upgraded weighting than initial forecasts.
What the simulation shows
According to MSCI's design, in May 2027 the Greek shares currently participating in the MSCI Greece index will be incorporated into MSCI Europe, aiming at a gradual and smooth transition for international portfolios.
The simulation, based on the February 2026 index review, shows that all existing components of MSCI Greece Investable Market Index will be transferred to MSCI Europe IMI.
Based on the same scenario, the MSCI Greece Large & Mid Cap indicator will include seven Greek shares, with a total weighting of around 40 basis points in MSCI Europe. For comparison, Greece currently participates in MSCI Emerging Markets with eight titles and a balance of 57 basis points.
For portfolios investing in emerging markets, the change is estimated to be limited overall, but it becomes more important for investors with specialised exposure to emerging European markets. This is because the departure of Greek banks from the Emerging Markets category reduces banking importance in this investment area.
On the contrary, for the investors in the developed markets, the Greek market appears to add a more concentrated and differentiated bank print to MSCI Europe, at a time when the European financial sector remains more scattered between banks, insurance companies and financial services.
The estimated weighting of Greece in MSCI Europe is close to 0.40%, a level approaching markets such as Austria and Portugal, which reflects the gradual return of the Greek market to the core of European investment regularity.
The financial sector still dominates the Greek stock market profile, as it accounts for about 59% of MSCI Greece IMI, almost three times as much as MSCI Europe IMI.
In the main scenario of MSCI, the four Greek banks will cover approximately 80% of the total weighting of the Greek index, while PPC’s participations in OTE Allwyn will strengthen the country's presence in energy, telecommunications and consumer activity.
In addition to the narrow financial dimension, Greece's reintegration into the developed markets also serves as a strong political and economic message. It is, essentially, an indirect confirmation that the Greek economy has returned to an institutional and investment normality path, leaving behind the period of the debt crisis.
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