A first measurable picture of how the artificial intelligence Starts changing the labour market gives new research of Morgan Stanley, with data showing that the effect is no longer limited to individual tasks automation. Businesses that have gone further in the adoption of artificial intelligence applications already record a net reduction in jobs, but at the same time significantly increase productivity, retrain workers and create new roles.

The investigation involved companies from the USA, Britain, Germany, the Japan and Australia, banking, software and services, technological equipment, semiconductors and professional services. These are companies that use artificial intelligence solutions At least for a year, which makes the findings more indicative of what can follow as technology matures and its use widens.

According to the investigation, 12 months until April 2026, enterprises averaged a net reduction in jobs by 5%. Artificial intelligence connected to Repeal 12% of Positions, while an additional 15% was not replaced when left vacant. On the other hand, the new recruitments They accounted for 22%, while 25% of workers were retrained and 16% moved to different roles. Only 11% of the posts remained unaffected from the application of technology.

This picture suggests that at present artificial intelligence does not just cause loss of positions, but much wider restructuring of Labour force. For each post repealed, companies shall also examine whether the work can be carried out, whether the employee can be retrained or whether a new recruitment with different skills is needed.

Banks show smaller net losses

The variations between Industry are important. The largest net losses recorded by semiconductor companies, with 8%, and follow the software and services with 7%, technological equipment 5 % and professional services With 4%.

The banks are located at the other end, with net reduction of positions only 3%, the lowest among the five branches. In banking sector 25% of the posts were either abolished or not replaced, but at the same time new recruitments They accounted for 23%. The banks They also had the highest rate Staff retraining, 26%.

The greater productivity benefits THE banks are identified in Software Development In addition, the financial management functions. This evidence shows that its first major effect artificial intelligence does not necessarily concern the store network or customer service, but work related to technology, information processing, financial functions and internal procedures.

The target is middle experience workers

Of particular interest is who Workers They're more affected. The positions of people with two to five years of professional experience show the greatest exposure both to abolitions and to non-replacement of staff.

Overall, the Workers with two to ten years of experience they gather most of the changes. The paradox is that the same categories also have the most chance of being hired, retrained or moved to a new role. In banking sector In particular, the Workers with two to five years of experience recording higher percentages of cancelled positions, Positions which are not replenished but also new recruitments.

The trend shows that companies do not merely limit the number of their employees, but redesign the type of skills That they need. It is typical that for the next 12 months 72% of enterprises states that it is more likely to hire workers with six to ten years of experience, while the corresponding rate for those who have two to five years of experience is 65%.

More pressure on offshore positions

Even more intense is the effect on positions transferred to lower-cost countries. The 41% of offshore positions either repealed or not replaced, 38% for permanent workers and 26% for temporary or contract staff.

The trend is particularly pronounced in large companies and especially in banks and software. The Germany, the corresponding rate for offshore workers is 52% and in Britain 49%.

Japan and Germany at both ends

The differences between countries are also large. The Japan it recorded the highest net drop in positions, at 10%, followed by Britain With 6%, USA 5 % and Australia With 4%.

The Germany was the only country where new recruitments exceeded losses, leading to a net increase of 1%. There is also the lowest percentage of cancelled posts, 9%, and the highest rate of retraining, 27%. On the contrary, in Japan 14% of posts were abolished and 16% were still not replaced.

Productivity gains of almost 10%

The other side of the equation is productivity. Companies estimate that the application of artificial intelligence has averaged net productivity by 9.6% over the last 12 months.

The greater benefit between Industry was recorded in software and services, with 10.4%, while in semiconductors was lower, at 8.2%. Smaller companies, with fewer than 50 employees, experienced an 11.3% increase, while in companies with annual revenues of less than $1 million the increase reached 13.3%.

And the trend is expected to accelerate. For the next 12 months, firms provide for an average additional productivity increase by 11.7%, evidence that they consider that much of financial benefits of artificial intelligence It's still ahead.

The sampled companies have been using artificial intelligence applications on average for 2.9 years. The banks, the technology equipment companies and semiconductors are located in about three years, with the largest businesses starting earlier.

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