The China attempts to convert the inconvenience caused by Donald Trump's commercial policy in an opportunity to reform the global Trade and It shields its economy, about $19 trillion, against American pressure.
China speeds up efforts towards the conclusion of approximately 20 trade agreements, seeking to link even more closely its huge productive base and trade with large economic zones, from the European Union and the Gulf countries to the Pacific region.
The target, according to Reuters's investigation, is not just to find new markets for Chinese products. Beijing wants to create such a dense network of trade relations to make a much more difficult future economic effort «Disconnect» China from the United States.
The strategy against the «Disconnect»
Research based in more than 100 Chinese-language articles of state-supported trade researchers and in more than 2,000 strategic trade studies who have the support of bodies such as Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Peking University, shows that this is a systematic effort.
Chinese consultants have studied for years the way the US used their economic and institutional influence in recent decades and consider how Beijing can deal more effectively with China's American containment policy.
At the center is its strategy «anti-decoupling», That is, the attempt to integrate China so deeply into world trade that its trading partners cannot easily break their relations with Beijing even under American pressure.
«Do not interrupt your opponent when he is wrong», it was typical to place a Chinese official, referring to Trump's commercial policy.
From Europe to the Gulf and Africa
China seeks to speed up trade negotiations which on several occasions have started years ago.
On the table countries such as Honduras, Panama, Peru, South Korea and Switzerland, while Beijing is pursuing closer trade relations with the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
In parallel, China wants to join the CPTPP, one of the most important commercial schemes in the Pacific.
In Asia, the RCEP, in which Beijing is already involved, covers about 30% of global GDP, offering China a huge regional commercial network.
The effort also extends to AfricaChina has announced zero tariffs for imports from 53 African countries, while promoting digital infrastructure and customs systems that exploit artificial intelligence.
Trade is not the only goal
Beijing is not only interested in how many Chinese products will be sold on the international markets.
Chinese strategy studies give particular emphasis to gain greater influence in the formulation of global rules, including in areas such as intellectual property, digital commerce and artificial intelligence.
The logic is that China must pass from the role of the great exporter the role of a country which actively participates in shaping world trade rules.
In this context The efforts to modernise commercial infrastructure are also included.China promotes customs systems with artificial intelligence, while in border crossing with Vietnam Chinese authorities argue that the use of such technologies has reduced waiting times by 20%. Reuters notes that it was unable to independently verify this percentage.
The big one «thorn» of 1.2 trillion
The biggest challenge to the Chinese strategy is the economic imbalance that has caused concern to its trading partners, since China's trade surplus is about 1.2 trillion. dollars, while domestic demand remains weak.
This enhances fears that China's huge production base will continue to channel large quantities of cheap products into international markets, pushing other countries' industries.
The former head of the World Trade Organisation, Pascal Lami, έχει επισημάνει ότι «οι κινεζικές επιχειρήσεις στέλνουν στην Ευρώπη περισσότερα προϊόντα από όσα μπορεί να απορροφήσει η αγορά της».
Έτσι, το Πεκίνο βρίσκεται αντιμέτωπο με μια δύσκολη εξίσωση, καθώς θέλει να ενισχύσει τις εμπορικές σχέσεις και να αυξήσει τις εισαγωγές, αλλά ταυτόχρονα πρέπει να περιορίσει τις ανισορροπίες που κάνουν τους εταίρους του να φοβούνται μια νέα πλημμυρίδα κινεζικών προϊόντων.
Ο υπουργός Εμπορίου της Κίνας έχει δηλώσει ότι η αύξηση των εισαγωγών αποτελεί προτεραιότητα, ενώ το Πεκίνο θέλει να αυξήσει και το μερίδιο της κατανάλωσης στο ΑΕΠ. Ωστόσο, η μετατόπιση από ένα μοντέλο που βασίζεται στις εξαγωγές και τη βιομηχανική παραγωγή προς μεγαλύτερη κατανάλωση αποτελεί μακροπρόθεσμο εγχείρημα.
Ο Καναδάς και το μήνυμα προς τις ΗΠΑ
Ένα χαρακτηριστικό παράδειγμα της νέας κινεζικής προσέγγισης είναι ο Καναδάς.
Κατά την επίσκεψη του πρωθυπουργού Μαρκ Κάρνεϊ στο Πεκίνο τον Ιανουάριο, οι δύο πλευρές συμφώνησαν σε μείωση των δασμών στα κινεζικά ηλεκτρικά αυτοκίνητα.
Η συμφωνία θεωρείται από το Reuters ένα από τα πρώτα βήματα στην προσπάθεια του Πεκίνου να περιορίσει την αμερικανική επιρροή και να δημιουργήσει νέα περιθώρια για τις κινεζικές εξαγωγές.
