Oil prices maintain most of the strong profits they have recorded since the collapse of the Middle East truce, as the new attacks between the US and Iran bring to the fore the risk of more serious disruptions to global supply.
After 12:00 Monday, Greece time, Brent's contracts moved without a substantial change to $96.2 a barrel, having previously approached $97.5. The contracts of the American slow WTI, October delivery, were also fixed at $91.46.
The course of recent weeks reflects the return of a strong geopolitical premium to the oil market. The truce agreement between the US and Iran expired on August 17 without being renewed, while Washington ruled out its extension.
At the first full session following the expiration of the deal, on August 18, Brent had closed at $91.02 and WTI at $84.94. Compared to Monday's highs, Brent was strengthened up to 7.1% and American slow to 9%. Based on prices shortly after noon, cumulative profits were formed at around 5.7% for Brent and 7.7% for WTI.
The 120 dollar scenario
The Goldman Sachs He estimates that oil could reach $120 a barrel if the attacks on navigation in the Middle East are widened and intensified. It is, however, a conditional and not the basic scenario of the American bank.
On the contrary, restoring the region's exports to normal levels could lead prices to $80. The wide range between the two scenarios illustrates the extent to which the course of oil now depends on developments in navigation and not just on demand or production.
ANZ analysts consider more likely an extended dead end, with controlled but repeated military operations.
In this scenario, exports are expected to remain limited during the remainder of 2026 and start to be gradually restored towards the end of the fourth quarter. Return to pre-war flows shall not be placed before the end of the first or early second quarter of 2027.
Attention to the Straits of Hormuz
Markets are now mainly monitoring developments in Straits of Hormuz.
Under normal circumstances, about one fifth of the world's oil supply passes through this sea passage. However, according to Kpler's figures, over the last ten days, only ten freight vessels had been on average daily, the lowest number since May.
The American Central Administration announced that its forces hit three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one near Harg Island, Iran's main export hub.
The Guards of the Revolution They argued, for their part, that they attacked three tankers moving on unapproved routes in the Straits, as well as three American ships.
Marine information company Marisks described the attacks «significant escalation», pointing out that commercial tankers are now used as means of mutual economic pressure. At the same time, Tehran has foretold the creation of a restricted zone outside the Straits of Hormuz.
At the same time, OPEC+ It kept production policy unchanged for October. Weight therefore remains in the Straits of Hormuz: any further slowing down the movement of tankers can lead the market to the assessment of a significantly greater shock offer.
