Wall Street's expectations of increasing corporate profits are accelerating at the fastest rate since the recovery period after the pandemic, strengthening concerns that a «Profit bubble» which have supported the recent rally of American shares.
Analysts now predict an increase of about 25% in the profits of S&P 500 companies for the following year, according to Bloomberg figures, with key levers the resilience of the American economy and the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence.
However, in view of the second quarter's announcement of results, there is an increasing concern that forecast upgrades are taking place at an excessively fast pace. Investors estimate that the high cost of investment in Artificial Intelligence, the potential slowing down of demand or the difficulty of converting capital spending into real profits could lead to a downward revision of expectations.
GMO's Ben Inker noted that forecasts for the next few years are increasing at a rate that only reminds of periods of intense recovery, stressing that the market may have entered a phase of over-optimistic pricing.
Estimates of the profits of the next 12 months have been boosted by almost 20% in six months, the strongest rise since 2021, which increases discussions on whether expectations are sustainable.
Interest focuses particularly on semiconductor companies and so-called hyperscalers, as demand for computing power feeds forecast for enhanced profits.
However, analysts of Capital Economics warn that valuations in the field of Artificial Intelligence may have reached levels where both expectations and capital costs become difficult to maintain, with a possibility of wider correction.
At the same time, Michel Lerner of UBS points out that the companies of the value chain of Artificial Intelligence are assessed on the basis of the case of maintaining extremely high profitability, which could prove unrealistic over time.
Despite the sharp rise in expectations, American markets continue to record historically high, with the Nasdaq Composite index significantly reinforced due to the technological rally. However, the rise in valuations now acts as a restraint mechanism for bubble concerns, as price indices to future profits remain lower than previous market peak periods.
However, some fund managers warn that valuations may be approaching levels «Profit saturation», where further growth is becoming more difficult.
In addition, the market is affected by parallel developments such as the increased issue of corporate debt and shares, as well as the changing expectations for interest rates in the USA, which limits the security margins for future valuations.
