Friends readers, the column would like to congratulate the National men's water polo team that reached the top, conquering the trophy at the World Cup.
The author's father was a leader in the Mars water polo team, a member of the National Greece and president of Mars (1982-1983) who took the 2nd basketball championship in the history of the club.
The Greeks for years, in water polo and basketball, we have a heavy jersey.
But the same has now happened to the Greek companies that managed to survive, not only to survive, but also to be great.
The Greek stock market is this mirror.
NO EXERCISE, the Mitsotakis government has helped most in this direction.
Now go friends readers to something that in the humble view of The Value Investor It needs TERRITORIAL ATTENTION.
Friends readers prepare for its share Alpha Bank It's about to go to hell and then we'll explain why.
As you have already understood, The Value Investor likes the hard, in fact, the very difficult.
Another example is Alpha Bank's share.
Now let's go to our favorite arithmetic.
Since the beginning of the year Alpha Bank has been the Absolute banking system coat.
It has only gone up by +9.4%.
This is a party and Alpha Bank is raining.
The best in performance so far banking system share is the favorite share of The Value Investor and top pick, Piraeus Bank with a return of 38%.
Second in yield Eurobank with an increase of +27.3% and third the share of the National Bank with an increase of 20.70%.
Now let's go get some history.
Orcell bought at 2.41 euros Alpha Bank
Mr. Andrea Orcell bought Alpha Bank's first 10% with a price at 1.40€, the second 10% with a value at 2.20€ and the third 10% with a value at 3.30€.
So this 30% has it at an average value of 2.30.€.
You're more free to die.
For you to know, it has another 3% through derivatives with a value of 3.50€.
This means that for almost 33% of Alpha Bank has paid an average price at 2.41€.
Because we like being honest, Mr. Orcell is a TERRIBLE CHAKALI.
He came in and wiped when there was no visibility and everyone was selling.
Great job.
But we're going to NOW because things are running at light speed.
As you know, Mr. Orcell is currently controlling 48% of Commerzbank and will be close to 50%.
Mr Orcell's offer for Commercebank that ended this month valued the German bank at 43.6 billion euros.
Just so you know, in 2025 Commercebank made 2.63 billion euros in profits and this year goes to 3.3 billion euros in profits.
So Mr. Orcell has come to pay a P/E 2026e = 13,21.
For 2027, estimates are that Commercebank will make 3.8 billion euros in profits.
So Mr. Orcell buys Commercebank with an expected P/E 2027e = 11.47.
According to the latest reports UniCredit appears to have full control of Commercebank by the end of 2026 and unify it.
Watch out now, friends readers because now they're starting to get the good stuff for Alpha Bank's share.
No point in staying with 32.9%.
I'm sorry.
He must have 50.1% in his hands so he can unify it.
The reason friends readers are that only if they unify it can Alpha Bank's profits move UniCredit's profits.
Consider that for 2026 UniCredit's profits are estimated at 11.2 billion euros, 12 billion in 2027 and 13.1 billion in 2028.
This is without the integration of Commercebank. Based on Goldman Sachs' estimate, Alpha Bank is estimated to make 2027 1,131 billion euros in profits, 10% of UniCredit's annual profits for 2027.
Friends of readers, we said so far Mr. Orcell is a huge dude.
But now it's time to pay for the above to get 17% of Alpha Bank where it will reach 50% and then can propose an exchange relationship with UniCredit.
As we have told you above, unfortunately so far Alpha Bank's share is the ultimate banking coat. The share from the beginning of the year burns coal compared to the other 3 systemic banks.
To understand, on Friday it closed with a rise of just +0.05% while the National had a rise of +3.26%, Eurobank a rise of +2.61% and Piraeus a rise of +2%.
Watch out now because the good stuff is starting.
The Mathematics of Alpha Bank
In two meetings only, Thursday and Friday, 24,894,411 shares of Alpha Bank were changed hands.
This means that with the new share number 2,256,243,315 changed hands 1,103% of Alpha Bank's share capital with an average price at 3,9173€.
Right where the stock closed on Friday.
In the last 5 working days, he changed hands 2.20% of the share capital with an average price at 3.9458€.
Just so you know, if we calculate that Mr. Orcell controls 32.9% of Alpha Bank, that means that he has only changed hands in a week 3.2855% of FREE FLOAT.
We're talking about a military percentage in so few days.
As you can see, if there was not a very strong buyer, the paper would have become an ointment.
To have an exact ratio, let's go see at the Eurobank stock what happened there, where the main shareholder controls almost the same percentage as Alpha Bank.
Careful now.
On Thursday and Friday only 0.3969% of Eurobank changed hands against 1.103% on Alpha Bank.
In the last 5 business days, 1.02% of Eurobank changed hands against 2.20% on Alpha Bank.
As you can see, Alpha Bank's tumor over the last week has been stratosphere.
Some very strong hands wipe Alpha Bank.
Friends of readers, Morgan Stanley came out on Friday and released her 15 top pick for the EYMEA region that today is exclusively presented to you below by The Value Investor.
Within the top 15 shares are Piraeus, Eurobank, PPC and Alpha Bank.
But be careful, please, for Alpha Bank's share Morgan Stanley makes a special mention saying that it is a very high beta stock and the upcoming Capital Investor Day can mark a lot of upgrades for the stock.
The Value Investor question is simple.
What's Alpha Bank administration doing?
He was to do the Capital Investor Day in May, went for a walk...
Now he hasn't announced when he will.
What's keeping Mr. Psaltis?
Has Mr. Orcell put him up to not find out yet before he gets control that Alpha Bank from ugly duck will become a swan?
Alpha Bank can start September, go late September, make its Capital Investor Day.
What's the holdup?
Because he just knows that there will be a volley of upgrades for Alpha Bank's share. And it'll make the stock go off. But be careful now, friends readers, what a straight line Mr. Orcell has played for.
Eurobank costs 15.72 billion euros, National 14.35 billion euros and Piraeus 11.59 billion euros.
All three banks play high.
Alpha Bank: The Cheapest Share
Right now, as we speak, friends readers, if anyone wants to be placed on a systemic banking stock, there is no cheaper than Alpha Bank's share and Mr. Orcell knows it very, very well.
Tick tuck, tick tuck, time runs against Mr. Orcell as told by The Value Investor and about the shorts in Metlen.
Mr. Orcell must hurry.
Friends readers be very careful now.
The Value Investor will make a very conservative approach to what price Mr. Orcell can give for the 17% of Alpha Bank that is to get off the board, as he did to Commercebank.
In the first scenario and the most conservative of all, The Value Investor considers that on the basis of Eurobank security estimates that Alpha Bank will make 2026 adjusted profits of the order of 1,014 billion euro. euro to pay a P/E 2026e = 10.
This means friends readers that minimum must give a price of 4.432€ (with the new number of shares).
So friends readers, don't sell scales below that price.
Mr. Orcell so far has been a dude and good for him.
Now it's time to pay for the extra.
For your information, The Value Investor believes that in order to find the percentage Mr. Orcell wants, he will have to pay a P/E 2027e = 10.
If we get Goldman Sachs' estimate that Alpha Bank will make 2027 1,131 billion euros, this gives a price of 5,012€.
Careful now. Because The Value Investor believes that Mr. Orsell will want to clean both Commercebank and Alpha Bank in 2026, that is, finish business this year, he thinks that to run things quickly and achieve his goal, he can comfortably give a price at 4.75€.
So, because he's got 33% at bottom, at 2.41.€, gets him comfortable to pay for 17% a price at 4.75€.
If we take this admission, he pays for 17% of 4.75€, this means that it has acquired 50% of Alpha Bank with 3,2056€.
To make this clearer, this means that Mr. Orcell will buy 50% of Alpha Bank with an expected P/E 2027e = 6.4.
Free stuff.
If now we get the worst case scenario for Mr. Orcell, that he makes a public proposal with cash for Alpha Bank 100% at 4.75€, this means it will have 50% to 3,2056€ and the other 50% to 4.75€.
This means that its price for 100% of Alpha Bank will be 3,9778€ and a capitalisation of EUR 8.975 billion.
That's friends readers, and at the price of 4.75€ Mr. Orcell will have acquired Alpha Bank giving a P/E 2027e = 7.94 while for Commerzbank he arrived to pay a P/E 2027e = 11.47.
Numbers are relentlessly friendly readers. Don't sell leper. Mr. Orcell can give up to 4.75€ the stock.
Mr. Big works for all the shareholders, young and old.
That's why the stock became a real PIRAUL.
Alpha Bank shareholders other than Mr. Orcell are on the bars.
They all laugh at themselves.
The stock is the ultimate coat so far.
The Value Investor, however, firmly believes that once the new business plan is announced the paper will become a rocket.
While Mr. Psaltis is stalling, everyone will wonder why he's doing it.
But The Value Investor friends readers insist that it is a matter of time and only the ugly duck he hears in Alpha Bank's name to become a swan.
Be a little patient, Alpha Bank's stock will be in hell.
Don't sell leper.
It's time for Mr. Orcell to pay more.
The stock with Friday closure at 3,918€ plays based on Goldman Sachs numbers with an expected P/E 2027e = 7.82.
At present Alpha Bank's share is one of the most undervalued banking shares in Europe.
The business plan is on its way. This will be the flammable material that will put a burlotte on Alpha Bank's stock.
The Value Investor wishes you health, luck and good profits.
THE The Value Investor Signed by Timos Beesaris (MSc INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE LSE), his special partner www.mononews.gr
OBSERVATION
- The columnist has shares of ALPHA BANKHe's not objective. He's not urging anyone. Opinions are shared.
- This article expresses personal views. The author is not rewarded by anyone for writing this article and has nothing to do with the companies in the article.
This is not an investment strategy for financial instruments or issuers of financial instruments and does not contain any opinion on the present or future value of financial instruments. The information and opinions in this document are for information to the reader alone.
-In this document there are information and estimates which may be significantly revised after the release of this document either due to a revision of the financial figures by the competent authorities, or because estimates are revised based on new developments and trends in economies and markets.
-This document may refer to specific financial elements which may not be compatible with the investment horizon and the profile of specific investors.
- Investment in certain financial elements may involve significant risks and opportunity costs.
- Readers of this document are solely responsible for confirming the validity of the information provided as well as being informed of any revisions of economic sizes and estimates taking place
