The Apostle Manthus
Her big bet Bally’s Intralot (BYLOT) Maybe it's not the merger. Not even the synergies. The real point that can stimulate the investment equation is in itself 2026 World Cup (United 2026), an event that begins in 22 days and today, with market to appear not to have understood the effect yet which may have on the profitability of the group.
For the first time in history, the Mundial is essentially converted into a organisation of a huge scale for the betting industry.
Of Qatar's 64 games we go to 104 matches, i.e. in an increase of about 62.5% in the overall racing programmeThe duration goes up on 39 days, the groups Done 48 and the tournament returns to the summer program of the northern hemisphereThere. where players' participation in the bet is traditionally launched.
But the crucial to the Bally’s Intralot is that the company of 2026 no longer resembles the old Intralot that the market had learned to treat primarily as a lottery technology company. After the integration of Bally’s International Interactive, the distribution of revenue changed drastically. Today 72.5% of pro forma revenue comes from activities directly to the final customer, while the online game and the sports betting They now represent the 45.2% of total turnover pro forma.
Even more important is the geographical shift of the group. The United Kingdom now becomes the largest market in Bally’s Intralot, representing around 61.5% of pro forma revenue.
And that's where the... money is..
The British market, where football is "religious.", considered one of the most dynamic worldwide in live football betting. Football acts essentially as the main source of turnover for most betting platforms. The 2026 World Cup creates a nearly uninterrupted cycle of betting activity for 39 days, with daily racing flow, very high ratings and huge participation via mobile phones.
The results of the first quarter even came to strengthen this account even further. The group appeared revenue €ECU 268.1 million and custom EBITDA €ECU 100.2 million; with profitability margin go up to 37,4%, as the complete unification of Bally’s International Interactive now significantly changes the quality and dynamics of revenue. It is particularly important that the Internet activities in the United Kingdom they continued to move with strong growth rates, recording rise +10,5% in the first quarter, while the preliminary revenues of April appear increased by +11.5% compared to last year. This practically reveals that Bally’s Intralot enters the Municipal having already strong organic acceleration Even before the big summer explosion started on the bet.
CautionHere may be his great opportunity betting boom not assessed by the market.
The administration has reconfirmed provision for custom EBITDA about €422 million in 2026, although a huge shock has already been absorbed within the estimates €95 million from the new British taxation. The plan is based on approximately €35 million savings in costs and advertising costs; €15 million synergies and around €34 million organic development.
But the World Cup doesn't play ball in these numbers.
This is particularly important because in major international events online betting companies usually show: very strong increase in active players, greater frequency of betting, strong rise in live betting and increased transfer of players to online casino games.
In previous Euro and World Cups several large platforms appeared increase in betting turnover from +25% to +40% in relation to a normal summer season. The 2026 World Cup is significantly larger and will probably work with much more explosive rhythms within the industry of online betting.
The increase in matches from 64 to 104 translates to approximately +62.5% more betting "opportunities". But it's not just the number of games. It is also the duration of 39 days, the daily race flow without major gaps, the participation of 48 countries and, above all, the conduct in the USA, Canada and Mexico, which keeps the hours of transmission extremely commercial for the British market.
Theall games will start late in the afternoon or evening time of Europe, that is, precisely at the times when the online players' activity in the UK is traditionally peaked.. This is very important because live betting attributes much higher turnovers when the user watches the race in "prime time" and not noon or midnight hours as in previous events. So we go further, where the case for Bally’s Intralot becomes very interesting.
The group now has about 61.5% of its pro forma revenue coming from the United Kingdom, while almost half the winning mix concerns online game and sports betting. This means that this year Mundial falls right on the track where Bally’s Intralot now brings out the greatest growth intensity and quality revenue, i.e. the online betting and digital activities of the British market.
If someone attempts to make a more aggressive but realistic reading of numbers, then the script begins to gain much more depth.
The image of the first quarter already shows a strong acceleration in the UK's online activities, even before the effect of the World Cup appears. If on this base added an outbreak of betting activity of the order of +30% to +45% during the event, then it is not too much to estimate that the second and third quarters may show significantly higher profitability than the market is currently waiting for.
And here comes the question of operational leverage.
On online betting platforms, infrastructure, licences, systems and much of the cost are already operating on a fixed basis. This means that when the turnover increases sharply, a fairly large part of the additional revenue goes almost directly into net profitability.
Based on the current size of Bally’s Intralot and the new exposure it has acquired on the British online betting market, an effect of the class of €75-90 million in additional revenue in the course of the World Cup does not seem excessive if the event moves at the pace of the global betting market.
And here is the critical point: much of this activity concerns high-frequency online betting, especially live betting, where margins and intensity of participation are significantly higher than a traditional pre-game bet.
This means that the effect on profitability can be disproportionately greater than that originally shown by the jiros. Provided that the betting activity moves at levels corresponding to the major international events, it would not be unreasonable to show an additional thrust of the order of €30-45 million at operating profitability in the second and third quarters of 2026.
Because when the market sees guidance about €EBITDA 422 million After almost tax shock €95 million in Britain, but during the summer estimates begin to appear for EBITDA towards €450 million or higherThen several will start looking at the stock with much more bland eye.
Especially in a company that to date continues to negotiate with intense discount due to borrowing, taxation and uncertainty from the merger.
In terms of diagram analysis the key point is the upward split of the resistance line "R1"in €1,144. Its upward encampment is capable of pushing the share above €1,20 with €EUR 1,24 with the aim of €1,30.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
