When the Middle East war, most investors expected that the gold would do what he usually does in times of war: to launch. The exact opposite has happened.
From the historical highs of January to the low of June, the precious metal lost about 26% of its value, causing shock to those who considered it the absolute safe haven. And yet, according to Barclays, the big picture has not changed.
The British bank not only keeps its forecast unchanged for a price of $4,791 per ounce in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, but argues that the recent collapse creates the conditions for a new rise.
Why failed as «safe haven»?
The question has been torturing the market for weeks. How can war break out in the Persian Gulf, threaten the Straits of Hormuz, unleash oil and gold collapse? Barclays identifies three main reasons.
- Firstly, the dollar has been greatly strengthened. Because gold is priced in dollars, a stronger American currency reduces its attractiveness for international investors.
- Secondly, the stock markets continued to rise. The money that would otherwise be directed to gold preferred shares, especially those linked to artificial intelligence.
- And thirdly, the gold market was overloaded with leveraged positions. When the fall began, forced liquidations accelerated the dive.
According to Barclays, only the rise of the dollar and the rally nearly 10% of the S&P 500 justify about 10% of the drop in gold. The rest is attributed to the unwrapping of these overbooked positions.
Central banks have not stopped buying
Barclays insists that the fundamental reasons behind the perennial gold rally remain active.
The most important is the central banks themselves.
After the freezing of Russian exchange reserves in 2022, dozens of countries accelerate the diversification of their reserves away from the dollar.
Gold remains the main alternative. This is a slow but extremely strong price support mechanism.
And according to Barclays, he hasn't changed in a minute.
Inflation is the great ally
The second major driving force is inflation. Bank analysts estimate that each increase in inflation by one percentage point adds about 5% to the value of gold.
And here lies the irony. The war that caused the fall of gold can eventually create the conditions for its next rise.
The energy crisis launched fuel and transport costs around the world. Even after the US – Iran agreement, energy prices remain significantly higher than pre-war levels.
Barclays considers that inflationary pressures are not over and that this will prove positive for precious metal.
Because he sees $4,900.
The bank estimates that the market has exaggerated its reaction. Today's gold price is now close to «fair value» Which Barclays estimates, about $4,150 per ounce.
In other words, the major correction has already absorbed most of the negative factors.
From now on, Barclays expects three things:
- Gradually weakening the dollar
- Continue purchases by central banks.
- Re-emergence of inflationary pressures due to energy.
If these scenarios are verified, gold can move back to its historically high.
The Miners' bet
Barclays is not limited to gold alone. He argues that even greater margins of growth may have the shares of mining companies, which usually overpay when a new upward cycle of metal begins.
Among the companies that stand out are Endeavour Mining, Hochschild Mining, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines.
The reasoning is simple: if gold returns to an upward trajectory, the profits of producers will increase disproportionately than the price of metal itself.
The market continues to doubt
The interesting thing is that the market does not seem to share Barclays' optimism yet.
Investors continue to monitor bond yields, Fed's attitude and dollar strength.
At the same time, artificial intelligence and high-growth shares continue to absorb huge funds, reducing the need for defensive positions.
Αυτό ακριβώς, όμως, είναι που κάνει τη Barclays να πιστεύει ότι ο χρυσός προσφέρει ξανά ευκαιρία.
«Αν υπάρχει μια περίοδος κατά την οποία ο χρυσός θα έπρεπε να διαπραγματεύεται με premium, είναι η σημερινή», καταλήγουν οι αναλυτές της τράπεζας.
Και αυτό ίσως είναι το πιο εντυπωσιακό συμπέρασμα: μετά από μια πτώση 26%, η Barclays δεν βλέπει το τέλος του bull market του χρυσού. Βλέπει απλώς μια στάση πριν από τον επόμενο μεγάλο ανοδικό κύκλο.
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