April was a very good stock month for Euronext Athens. At the end of the April 30 meeting, the rise since the last March meeting was of 5.98%, most shares closed in April considerably higher than March, while since the beginning of the year the General Index has been rising by 3.21%.
But if we look a little closer, we'll see how things are not so positive. The recovery from the end of March was much stronger in between, as shortly after Easter the General Index had reached 2,322.78 units i.e. nearly 14% above the end of March and on 30 April was found at 2,188.68.
Something similar happened to many of the important shares in the Greek stock market, with large systemic banks being the most typical example. In order not to unfair our market, however, we must point out that something similar has happened on all European stock markets.
After the significant recovery that began shortly before the end of March, in the last ten days of April they all lost ground.
There is no doubt that this move of Greek and European stock exchanges has to do with things that concern investors in these stock exchanges and are more or less starting with the war that began in the Middle East on the last day of February and what has followed.
But as we are more interested in our own market, today we will deal mainly with it. This war, in particular its direct effects on the global energy market and international trade and indirect effects in several other sectors, has been a major concern for investors on the Athens Stock Exchange since the day it began.
It is known that from a stock exchange point of view what was very interested in international markets and of course ours was the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. The hope of the markets was that any disturbance of calm on this very important sea route would not last long and the return to normality would be rather short.
The truce reached shortly before Easter raised the relative hopes and, to a significant extent, played a major role in the recovery of exchanges. But over time it became clear that despite the truce, navigation in the Straits and Persian Gulf remained practical. «frozen», which means that the flow of crude oil, refining products, LNG, petrochemical products and other derivatives of crude oil and gas is almost zero.
The same applies to a large number of commodities, raw materials, fertilizers and industrial products which cannot be removed from the Persian Gulf. International investors see prices rising as a result of the blockade of the Straits while at the same time they have begun to convince themselves that things will soon get worse and price increases will multiply on the one hand and on the other hand they will not be of a purely temporary nature as many have believed for a few weeks.
The Greek stock market obviously cannot be left indifferent to what is happening and the shares are gradually beginning to reflect this concern. We see companies affected whose economic performance is directly affected by the increase in fuel prices, such as air and steam shipping.
But we also see pressure on companies directly affected by the progress of the economy, with banks being the most important example. Despite the general belief that Greek major banks are healthy and have very positive prospects, concern about the progress of the economy harms their shares.
Reports of international organisations such as the IMF in an imminent reduction in economic growth for Greece and the European Union are not an isolated phenomenon, as we hear the same from other similar bodies and from stock exchange analysts.
Thus, many investors hold a more conservative stance than before, not only in relation to banks but also with most large shares in Euronext Athens. The market climate is also negatively affected by the concern that has been developing over the last few weeks about the progress of the reference rates and the attitude of central banks.
The general concern about inflation and its possible resurgence have brought to the fore considerations even of a forced increase in reference rates by the European Central Bank.
The rise in reference rates we know is not generally liked by stock investors and this seems to have played a role in their cautious attitude in recent days. Especially when it comes, if it does, it will coincide with a weakening of the economy which is usually treated by central banks by reducing interest rates.
It would be no exaggeration to say that at the moment the good performance and positive prospects of most of the listed companies have begun to emerge from the spotlight and are obscured by the geopolitical concern expressed through the future of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and economic concern, particularly for inflation, economic growth and reference rates.
As we on the Athens Stock Exchange do not have the chance to have many businesses with a direct or even indirect relationship with the Artificial Intelligence and its fleeting development, it is not very easy to escape the complexities we have approached. That is to say, we do not have the fate of the American, Korean and Japanese stock exchanges that have been autonomous, at least at stock index level.
As long as the Straits remain closed, concern about fuel adequacy and the potential further rise in their price, the possible strong resurgence of inflation and other side effects in the international economy and what major central banks will need to do in the area of reference rates.
Αυτό βέβαια δεν σημαίνει πως οι μετοχές στο ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο θα συνεχίσουν οπωσδήποτε την σχετικά αρνητική πορεία των τελευταίων συνεδριάσεων. Έχουν ήδη χάσει αρκετό έδαφος και κανείς δεν μπορεί να υποστηρίξει πειστικά πως είναι ακριβές για να πρέπει να πέσουν ακόμα περισσότερο.
Επειδή όμως δεν είναι ποτέ εύκολο να προβλέψουμε τις αλλαγές στην ψυχολογία των επενδυτών, ας μείνουμε στο προφανές: όσο τα Στενά παραμένουν κλειστά και παραμένουν οι φόβοι για τον πληθωρισμό, την οικονομική ανάπτυξη και τα επιτόκια αναφοράς, οι επενδυτές στο ελληνικό χρηματιστήριο θα είναι δύσκολο να επικεντρωθούν μόνο στις αρετές των εισηγμένων μετοχών.
Αυτό δεν είναι και πολύ ευχάριστο, μπορεί όμως να έχει και μία θετική πλευρά και να δώσει ευκαιρία καλύτερης εισόδου για επενδυτές που αναζητούν καλύτερα σημεία εισόδου στην αγορά. Ουδέν κακόν αμιγές καλού, όπως μαθαίναμε μικροί.
