With its prices oil Re-enhancing and Straits of Hormuz to remain virtually closed, world markets enter a crucial week balancing between geopolitical risks and strong structural growth levers.
Brent was negotiating early Monday at $107,50 a barrel, strengthening the risk premium in energy, at a time when about 20% of the world's oil flow and LNG remains trapped in the planet's most critical sea passage.
His profits were narrowed down briefly, with the price returning below $ 106, to the wake of Axios' post that wants Tehran to have filed a proposal for reopening the Straits. However at 11:00 Greek time it was again close to 107 dollars.
The «bazaar» on Hormuz and geopolitical uncertainty
The picture is burdened by the wreck of the US – Iran talks at the weekend, with Donald Trump cancelling the mission of Steve Whitkov and Jared Kushner in Islamabad, citing «internal conflicts» in Tehran.
At the same time, however, diplomatic channels remain open: The American side will obviously consider the new proposal to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and end the war. It is not clear whether it will agree to postpone negotiations on the nuclear programme for the future, as Iran proposes.
This uncertainty keeps oil prices in ascending orbit, with the market now incorporating a persistent geopolitical premium.
UBS: Durable growth, but with «hazard line» from energy
Despite tension, the picture of the global economy remains more durable than one would expect. According to its analysis, rising oil is an important but manageable risk to growth.
UBS estimates that higher energy prices will remove between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points from growth in 2026 in the USA, Europe and China, but without derailing economic dynamics.
At the same time, it revises upwards forecast for oil, watching Brent maintain over $90 by the end of the year, as normalization of flows is delayed.
Inflation: Pressures, but without «second wave»
Interesting is that UBS does not see uncontrolled shift of energy increases into structural inflation.
Estimates refer to a rise in headline inflation of about 3.8% in the US and 3.3% in the Eurozone over the coming months, but with limited secondary effects, due to lower baseline and lower labour market pressures.
This allows the central banks to move more gently, with UBS seeing total interest rate reductions by 50 basis points from Fed by the end of the year.
Shares: Resistant against energy shock
Despite the energy shock, the stock markets continue to show remarkable resilience.
International stock indices in Europe, Asia and the US move close to historically high levels, having overcome the losses of the initial phase of the war, as investors weigh two counterbalanced forces: the geopolitical risk and dynamics of artificial intelligence.
As analysts note, «right tail» development – with the cutting edge of AI and investment in technology – is currently taking precedence over «left tail» the geopolitical risks.
How long can the rally last?
Optimism, however, begins to show signs of fatigue. Investor positions are increased, which has historically preceded milder returns.
Analysts warn that the rally can continue, but with increased variability, especially as long as the Hormuz issue remains unresolved.
At the same time, history shows that markets can recover quickly after energy shock – as happened after the Suez crisis in 1956 – after the flows have been restored.
The «second effects»: LNG, food and supply chains
The greatest risk may be not only in oil, but in secondary effects.
LNG prices have already increased significantly, affecting the cost of fertiliser production and, consequently, agricultural production. These effects are expected to be seen with a delay in inflation indicators, creating a more persistent wave of pressure.
Ταυτόχρονα, διαταραχές καταγράφονται και σε άλλα εμπορεύματα – από το αλουμίνιο έως το θείο – διευρύνοντας το αποτύπωμα της κρίσης σε ολόκληρη την παγκόσμια εφοδιαστική αλυσίδα.
Το μεγάλο στοίχημα των αγορών
Το βασικό ερώτημα για τους επενδυτές είναι πλέον σαφές: πόσο γρήγορα μπορεί να επανέλθει η ομαλότητα στο Ορμούζ και πόσο βαθιά θα είναι η επίδραση της ενεργειακής κρίσης στην πραγματική οικονομία.
Προς το παρόν, το «bull market» παραμένει ζωντανό. Όμως, όπως επισημαίνουν αναλυτές, οι αγορές κινούνται σε ένα περιβάλλον όπου η τεχνολογική αισιοδοξία συγκρούεται με έναν γεωπολιτικό κίνδυνο που δεν έχει ακόμη πλήρως εκδηλωθεί.
