American banks are also at the heart of attention, as investors await their announcements next week
Concerning signs of the continuation of the upward rally in Wall Street In addition, there is a risk that Inflationarys pressures associated with the war in Iran, as cost increases for American companies and concerns about their performance intensify. First messages from the period announcement of corporate results show that fuel price increases and wider inflationary pressures are beginning to affect profitability prospects, while banking shares are already in a correction area.
The fact that American markets It does not mean that investors can ignore risks. On the contrary, developments in energy costs, bond yields and corporate forecasts form a more complex environment, in which the optimism of recent months may be tested.
Energy costs are pushing US companies
A typical example is Delta Air Lines, which announced that its fuel costs increased by nearly $2 billion compared to a year earlier. At the same time, the company provided provision for the fourth quarter profits significantly lower than market estimates, giving rise to increased fuel prices.
Its CEO Delta, Ed Bastian, appeared confident that fuel prices would retreat, however without being able to determine how quickly or to what extent this will happen. Evolution highlights the uncertainty faced by undertakings; when geopolitical tensions are translated into higher operating costs. Even if energy prices degrade later, increased costs can burden the financial results and overturn investors' expectations.
Degrades profitability forecasts by PepsiCo
Pressures are also recorded in other branches of the American economy. The PepsiCo It limited its provision for annual profits, including the inflationary pressures affecting almost all its activities. The development strengthens concerns that the increase in costs is not a problem solely for airlines or companies with high energy consumption. On the contrary, it can affect a wider range of business activities, creating additional difficulties to maintain profitability.
For the stock market, Corporate provisions are of particular importance, as stock valuations depend largely on expectations for future profits. When companies begin to revise their estimates downwards, investors are invited to review the assumptions on which price increases were based.
In a correction area, bank shares
At the heart of attention are also the American banks, as investors await the announcements of their results next week. The shares of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs they are already in a correction area, which reflects the pressure on the banking sector.
At the same time, the performance of the American ten-year bond records a strong rise, adding another factor of uncertainty for markets.
The path of their performances bonds is a critical size for the financial environment, as it affects the cost of financing and the conditions for the valuation of investments. Thus, upcoming bank announcements are gaining particular weight, as investors seek indications of how changing economic conditions affect their performance and prospects.
An up-and-coming market with significant strengths and risks
Despite new concerns, the American stock market is still in a strong upward cycle. According to a new analysis by Keith Lerner from Truist, the current bull market is the 11th since the 1950s and is heading towards the completion of four full years, based on the October 2 Chronicle mentioned in the analysis.
The total rise is 119%, επίδοση που τοποθετεί τον σημερινό κύκλο περίπου στη μέση της ιστορικής κατάταξης. Είναι αισθητά χαμηλότερη από την άνοδο 401% που καταγράφηκε κατά την ανοδική περίοδο από το 2009 έως το 2020, αλλά και από το εντυπωσιακό 582% της περιόδου 1987-2000.
Η μέση άνοδος των ανοδικών αγορών στο δείγμα που εξετάζει ο Lerner ανέρχεται σε 184%. Παράλληλα, έξι από τις δέκα προηγούμενες bull markets διήρκεσαν περισσότερο από τέσσερα χρόνια, στοιχείο που δείχνει ότι η συμπλήρωση μιας τετραετίας δεν σηματοδοτεί από μόνη της το τέλος ενός ανοδικού κύκλου.
Τα ιστορικά δεδομένα, επομένως, δεν προεξοφλούν αναγκαστικά μια αναστροφή της τάσης. Δείχνουν, ωστόσο, ότι η διάρκεια και το μέγεθος της ανόδου δεν αρκούν για να διασφαλίσουν τη συνέχισή της.
Το στοίχημα για τη Wall Street
Το βασικό ερώτημα για τους επενδυτές είναι κατά πόσο η αμερικανική αγορά θα μπορέσει να διατηρήσει τη δυναμική της σε ένα περιβάλλον αυξημένου ενεργειακού κόστους, πληθωριστικών πιέσεων και υψηλότερων αποδόσεων ομολόγων.
Οι εξελίξεις στη Delta και την PepsiCo, σε συνδυασμό με την υποχώρηση των τραπεζικών μετοχών σε επίπεδα διόρθωσης, αποτελούν προειδοποιητικές ενδείξεις που αναμένεται να αξιολογηθούν υπό το πρίσμα των νέων εταιρικών αποτελεσμάτων.
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