At 15% – 20%, the rate of success is estimated which, under current circumstances, may «unlock» a research drilling in Greece, since the lack of recent drilling data lowers, in relation to mature markets such as Norway or Britain, the bar of acceptable risk.
«With 15% to 20% chance of success one goes to research drilling» They stress sources with excellent knowledge of the object, however making it clear that this percentage can be differentiated from region to region and by period. Thus, under the current circumstances, since in Greece the last offshore drilling took place in 1982 in Katakolo, a success rate between 15% and 20% is considered sufficient for a research drilling. In more mature markets, however, such as Norway, Britain or the US, this rate even goes up to 35%, as the number of drilling data gives a much better picture of geological structures and therefore the risk that is considered acceptable. In Greece, too, depending on the progress of the hydrocarbon programme the risk picture can be revised upwards or downwards.
The lease of a drill
At present, on the basis of what he had stated at the signing ceremony of the lease contract for the drilling of the Stena DrillMAX drill, the CEO of Energean, Mathios Rigas, the estimated success rate for the planned February 2027 drilling in the Northwest Ionian, in the Asopus 1 target, is placed at 16%, with available data indicating potential resources up to approximately 270 billion cubic metres of natural gas or about 5 billion barrels of oil.
It is noted that cycles with immediate knowledge of the Greek hydrocarbon program note that possible discovery of a deposit in Block 2 would not allow safe conclusions to be drawn about the southern Ionian. As explained, more research drilling will be required in order to demonstrate the existence or non-oil system in individual regions of the country.
Currently, in addition to the Northern Ionian, the looks have turned to Block 10 in the Cypriot Gulf, in which Chevron's entry was formalized, in a deal that has matured in the last four years. The American company acquires 70% and an operator role, with Helleniq Energy - whose declared goal is to work with strong partners in all the blocks in which it is present - to maintain the remaining 30%.
It is recalled that in this section both two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic records have been completed, with the consortium having received an extension of 15 months in the second research phase in order for Chevron and Helleniq Energy to jointly study the research data, including the neighbouring, smaller plot A2, in which direct three-dimensional seismic surveys are planned. The proximity of the two regions, namely Block 10 and A2, is considered likely to lead to coordination of operations across the region in order to decide whether the consortium will proceed to the third stage involving the execution of a research drilling.
In any case, sources with excellent knowledge of the processes stress the liquidity and uncertainty that distinguish the domain of upstream, as, in addition to any estimates, no one can be certain whether natural gas or oil will be found, in what quantity and in what form. The return on an investment, they explain, may even vary within 50 km. «You don't go completely blind, but there's no certainty: everything's thoughtful», note.
«He's coming up.» the Eastern Mediterranean
The mobility recorded in the Greek hydrocarbon programme in recent years is part of the wider «rise» of the Eastern and Central Mediterranean on the radars of multinational energy giants, with a series of developments in the last 15 years: from the discovery of Leviathan deposits in Israel and Zor in Egypt to the war in Ukraine, which resulted in companies operating in Russia seeking other areas, such as the Mediterranean, close to European markets.
Σε αυτό το πλαίσιο οι μεγάλοι παίκτες, όπως η Chevron, που με την προσθήκη και του Block 10 αποκτά πλέον παρουσία σε πέντε θαλάσσια οικόπεδα στην Ελλάδα, συνθέτουν κομμάτι κομμάτι το παζλ του ευρύτερου χαρτοφυλακίου τους στην περιοχή. Δεν είναι τυχαίο ότι ο εν λόγω αμερικανικός όμιλος έχει παρουσία ή έχει συνάψει συμφωνίες με πλήθος χωρών της περιοχής, όπως η Αίγυπτος, το Ισραήλ, η Κύπρος, η Τουρκία, η Λιβύη και η Αλγερία.
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