The Apostle Manthus
The group AKTOR (AKTR) continues to rely on infrastructure, energy and concessions, with LNG and strategic metals now adding a very explosive expansion field. Today's capitalization of €2.21 billion and the price of €10,86 They value a large part of the rise already made, but not the business size described for 2030. With about 204 million shares in circulation, each additional €1 billion capitalisation corresponds to around €4,90 per share. This is the first number we have to keep. .
The group's new guideance for 2030 talks about revenue €4.6–5.5 billion, EBITDA €550–600 million and net profits €190–220 million Multiplier 8x EBITDA, the valuation of an undertaking is based on €4.4– 4.8 billion Narin 9x, goes up to €5,0–5,4 billion Narin 10x, passes into €5.5–6.0 billion
If premium is added for the LNG, concessions and 20 years of contracts, the area of €6.3–6.5 billion is not so far out of the logic of a group that will produce over half a billion EBITDA per year.
At share level, this gives three zones.
In the conservative scenario a capitalization €4.5 billion translates to a value about €22,10. In the base scenario, capitalization €5.5 billion gives value about €27,00. In the aggressive scenario, capitalization €6.5 billion leads the stock close to €31,90. Starting with €10,86, the potential valuation range corresponding to a significant deviation from current levels moves from approximately +103% to +194%, always of course provided that the execution of the plan remains in orbit.
In 2025 he built the first base. The group closed with turnover €1.395 billion, pro forum EBITDA €207 million, Fund €324 million, own funds €399 million and unexecuted €4.7 billion . The most important, however, is in its operational margin where it went through the stage of reconstruction at the stage of aggressive enlargement. Presentation records 67 trade, €340 million funds raised, more than €340 million in M&A, 12 new subsidiaries or more €9 billion in long-term LNG contracts. This speed exceeds the limits of a classical construction activity and refers to a group setting up a platform with multiple revenue and profitability flows.
The LNG It now operates as a key enlargement lever. Atlantic SEE LNG Trade, with participation 60% AKTOR and 40% DEPA Marketing, secured four new trade agreements for an American LNG in Bulgaria, Ukraine, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a duration of up to 20 years The quantities are significant: 1.5 BCM annually to Bulgargaz, 1 BCM to Naftogaz, to 1 BCM to Albania and 0,5 BCM to Aluminij Industries and M.T. Abraham Group . So we're dealing with an energy corridor that can power a market almost 100 million consumers, with Greece in a hub role for American LNG to Eastern Europe .
The agreement AKTOR LNG USA with ALBGAZ is in itself large size: 1 BCM per year from 2030 for 20 years, with estimated total revenue almost €6 billion Next to this, Albania opens up a second field, as AKTOR Energy USA signed MoU for integrated energy hub comprising a gas plant of approximately 380 MW In Bosnia, the agreement with Aluminij Industries and M.T. Abraham Group expands notionalised revenues by around €3 billion. based on the presentation of the group . So only Albania and Bosnia give around €9 billion long-term revenue, before the agreements with Bulgaria, Ukraine and the other deals in progress are incorporated into the economic footprint.
But be careful because the LNG not only adds turnover, it adds time, geopolitical depth and financial logic for new infrastructure. The President and CEO of AKTOR Group himself, Alexander Exarch, has stressed that long-term contracts can support additional investments in FSRU, pipelines and natural gas plantsThis means that the LNG can be made new project production mechanism for the group. First come the contracts. Then the infrastructure comes. And then come the recurring odds.
And here's the thing.
The rate at which the Exarch Reminds more Agreement production line rather than a classic group administration.
Signatures fall at a frequency that leaves no breath, keeping the market alert. LNG decade contracts, bilateral agreements with state energy operators, MoU for energy hubs, extensions to new markets and before the market can assess one, the next one has already been announced. The main thing here is not so much the number of agreements as the feeling that the flow has no brake. The quantities already locked are only the first layer. Behind them there is pipeline negotiations in bcm constantly expanding, with Eastern European countries looking for long-term coverage and the group being placed ahead of this demand.
And here comes the real depth of history, which some people may not yet understand as is not a private commercial expansionThis is about alignment with an American energy strategyWashington has decided to turn Greece into key LNG channel to Europe, replacing Russian flows on a regional scale. The US Ambassador herself in Athens, Kimberly Guilfoyle, does not conceal this role: has placed it in public "Deep Corridor" as a key energy security axis and has stated that the US is already increasing LNG flows through Greece to Southeast Europe and Ukraine. At the same time, it actively participates in transnational contacts and agreements aimed at new procurement commitments, with deals measured in billion cubic metres and not in individual loads.
The money behind this move is huge.. The U.S. has already opened the financing pivot to infrastructure linked to the LNG and the transit of energy to the region. Only in the section of logistics and port infrastructure, projects with American support and funding from organisations such as U.S. International Development Finance Corporation reach levels EUR 100 million, while more broadly the US-Europe Energy Agreement talks about energy markets of the order of $250 billion per year. Within this context, the AKTOR group operates as Executive arm of a wider design linking trade flows, infrastructure and geopolitics.
That is why the intensity of the agreements does not seem to be exhausted. Instead, it accelerates. Every new contract creates a need for new infrastructure. Every new infrastructure opens up space for a new contract. This cycle has not yet reached the point of maturation. Located in the acceleration phase.
The second large field that has not even been filled on the dashboard is strategic metals. The agreement with the BNI Foundation Albania predicts joint venture with participation 51% of AKTOR Metal, for research, development and exploitation of nickel and rare earth deposits in Bilisht. The estimated capacity exceeds 500,000 tonnes of nickel and 25,000 tonnes of cobalt, while the investment level in full growth is estimated at €1 billion, with basic external financing from US funds . This project brings AKTOR next to the chain of batteries, electrification, storage and energy security of raw materials. If it matures, it will add to the dashboard a very important surplus value that today the market ignores.
In RES, the group has already acquired a position that counts. After the acquisition of SUN FORCE TWO, the PV portfolio in operation and storage reaches 408 MW PV and 100 MW batteries, with an estimated Enterprise Value €377.6 million and annual EBITDA about €33.7 million In wind, the ELIGIBLE ENERGY adds 145 MW with an operating horizon towards the end of 2028, estimated EV €ECU 250 million and EBITDA about €25 million In combination, known energy assets of RES can give close to €EBITDA 59 million, before projects are calculated in development above 1,5 GW and new acquisitions .
The construction remain the productive arm that feeds the entire ecosystem. In 2025 the sector wrote €1,289 billion revenue, €141 million adj EBITDA and EBITDA margin 11%, while the backlog moves in €4.7 billion The difference with the old model is that construction is no longer left alone. It is associated with concessions, PPPs, student homes, roads, irrigation, port projects, energy infrastructure and cross-border projects. The strategic alliance with the ONEX to claim the port of Elefsina adds a port, industrial and maritime dimension, aimed at an international hub of freight flows, energy and logistics.
Finally the strong paper of concessions gives other quality to future profits. Presentation indicates portfolio 15 projects, 7 concessions and PPP in operation, 4 under construction and 4 preferred bidder, while the pre-forma EBITDA of the segment reaches €ECU 47 million with a margin above 50% . In a group that aims at €EBITDA 550–600 million In 2030, concessions operate as a basis of lower risk. The LNG adds duration. RES add energy asset base. Critical metals add optional goodwill. Construction adds execution and volume.
That is why I repeat that the valuation can be directed upwards at three estimated levels. In the first, if the market gives the group 8x EBITDA 2030, the theoretical value of business moves in €4.4– 4.8 billion. With an adjustment for a net loan and a share base close to 203.5 million pieces, capitalisation can reach €4,2–4,6 billion, i.e. a share price of approximately €20,60–22,60. On the second level, 9x EBITDA, capitalization goes up to €5.0–5.5 billion, so price close to €24,50–27,00. On the third level, with 10x to 10.5x EBITDA, if the market recognises the 20-year LNG flows and gives premium to concessions, capitalization can move to €6.0–6.5 billion, i.e. a share price of approximately €29,50–31,90.
Investment reading is very strong because AKTOR does not rely on a single growth machine. Has construction backlog, has Decade concessions, has RES with visible EBITDA, has 20-year LNG book with billions of revenue, has nickel, cobalt and American financial support mining project, has Port perspective through Elefsina and has a balance sheet that allows him to pursue the next move. If the administration performs at the same speed as it has moved over the last two years, then the share of €10,86 will correspond to the price of a group that the market was reading with the old damaged vocabulary, while it had already passed to a new growth chapter.
In terms of diagram analysis the share is captured on the two-day chart to form a "patch" in the zone €10.60 with €10.44 to try immediately after moving to the area of historical high €11.70 with €12,00.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
