The Apostle Manthus
The EUR 6,58 and capitalization about EUR 1,165 billion, the LAMDA Development today offers one of the strangest valuations in Euronext Athens. The issue now surpasses the well-known discount against NAV. Individual values have begun to gain such size that EUR 6.58 needs a much more convincing economic explanation. Truly, something has forgotten to pay for the purchase at LAMDA.
The Edison Investment Research install the adjusted NAV of 31 March EUR 1,529 billion or EUR 8,97 per share. The share is therefore traded around 27% lower. So far, nothing to surprise those who have been watching LAMDA for years. The real issue begins when you open the EUR 8.97 and examine what includes and above all what is left outside.
The four commercial centres currently operating correspond to NAV EUR 5,01 per share. If the Riviera Galleria and the Illinois Mall made in Greek, the NAV of all malls rises to EUR 7,37 per share.
With 6,58 euros on the dashboard and 7,37 euros only from the malls, "someone" on the account has left out enough property. The stock price of the entire LAMDA is lower than the NAV corresponding only to its six shopping centres, four in operation and two in development.
At the same time Edison appreciates about 400m euros of future profits from current residential projects, amount corresponding to EUR 2,30 per share and is outside the present NAV. At the same time it calculates about EUR 1.3 billion of additional value, or EUR 7,50 per share, in about 900,000 sq mi of land available for future residential development. This land is found in books of value under 1000 euros per square meter
Here the market could reasonably contrast that land estimates are estimates. Only on 30 July Something very useful has happened to discuss estimates.
LAMDA signed two plots of total maximum permissible construction agreements EUR 41.5 million. The properties were acquired by Ten Platinum Properties and Tenelite Properties, subsidiaries of Ten Brinke Hellas, in which Intracom Holdings participates. The transaction took place around EUR 2,650 per structured square meter and LAMDA expects to recognise an accounting profit before tax approximately EUR 31 million.
The price acquires even greater stock investment value compared to the 2024 land sales. At the time, five plots of total structural surface of about 51,000 sq.m. had changed hands against EUR 106 million, with an average value of approximately EUR 2,100 per square meter Within less than two years, the new transaction with the Ten Brinke Increases the price to 2,650 euros per square meter, about 26% higher.
Edison therefore talks about available land registered under EUR 1,000 per square meter and LAMDA has just made a transaction at EUR 2,650 per square meter. The difference exceeds 165%. Of course. 900,000 sq mi they cannot be mechanically valued at the price of a particular transaction. Different locations, uses, growth times and city planning features produce different values. But the transaction offers actual reference point how preservatives may be found part of the land.
We put the real cash in the bill. Revenues, mainly from contractual advance payments in Greek, have reached about EUR 1.7 billion Since the start of the project and the administration expects to touch around EUR 2.1 billion until the end of 2026. At the same time, the cumulative building and infrastructure capex were around 1.1 billion euros at the end of March and is expected to reach 1.6 billion euros at the end of the year.
The expected cumulative revenues of €2.1 billion are around €500 million above the projected cumulative building and infrastructure capex.Edison describes Greek as self-funding.
There is also a ready income waiting for construction progress to pass on to the results. The deferred revenues from real estate sales and leases amount to EUR 415 million and will be gradually recognised as projects evolve. In the residences of Little Athens, from the 671 units sold by the end of May, 585 or 87% had already been sold or committedLAMDA plans the release of an additional 300-350 residences within the rest of 2026.
Behind the Greek works a parallel Second major economic profitability machine. The four existing malls produced EUR 95.9 million adjusted retail EBITDA in 2025, with a margin of 80%. In the first quarter of 2026 the adjusted retail EBITDA increased by 5%, to 24.9m euros, while sales of stores reached a historic high.
The Riviera Galleria basic commercial conditions have already been agreed for 76% of 19,000 sq mi of leased surface, while at Ellinikon Mall the corresponding percentage reaches 70% of 100,000 square meters, well before its intended completion at the end of 2028.
The development of Greek is naturally accompanied by high capital requirements, with the adjusted net debt located around EUR 1.9 billion. However, this size should be read together with EUR 0,8 billion available cash, the extra EUR 232 million of frozen and unused bank lines and an investment portfolio about EUR 3.8 billion. Gearing is formed at 50%, while 70% of the total loan is fixed interest rate or offset. The average financial burden has fallen to 3.8% from 4.1%. Edison itself considers that LAMDA has sufficient liquidity, access to funding and agreed inputs to implement the current development programme.
The EUR 6,58 patience over the discount begins to run out. LAMDA is valued at EUR 1,165 billion, when the adjusted NAV is located in EUR 1,529 billion and only malls correspond to EUR 7,37 per share. Except NAV are located about EUR 400 million of estimated household profits, while Edison calculates others EUR 1.3 billion of potential value on available landAnd the real estate market already gave its own price: 2,650 euros per square meter in a recent transaction, when Edison's land is in the books under EUR 1,000 per square metre.
I mean, how much longer does it take to be considered an exaggeration? Greek progresses, houses sell, malls produce cash and the land changes hands at multiple prices of accounting. And we are still discussing whether 6,58 euros is a lot. Well, I guess we're talking about the wrong thing.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
***Republished by Chapter newspaper
