ChatGPT's appearance in 2022 sparked an unprecedented explosion of interest and investment in Artificial Intelligence, however, accompanied by strong warnings of an imminent «disaster» THE labour market.
Although companies in the industry have an interest in highlighting the dynamics of their products and that employment in developed economies remains close to historically high levels, fear has been deeply rooted in Public opinion.
In the United States, writes Economist, seven out of ten citizens believe that TN will make finding work difficult, while almost one out of three is concerned about its own position. The reducing opportunities for young graduates; In particular in the area of programming, it strengthens this insecurity.
History offers some reassuring indications, notes Economist. Labour markets are constantly changing and today's workplaces would have been unrecognized for a worker just half a century ago. To date, technological progress has not reduced overall demand for human work.
Even the famous «Stop Engels» during the Industrial Revolution, the paradox that workers' wages increased slower than the economy is now considered less dramatic than we used to think.
The least good news, according to the Economist, is that the past is not always a reliable guide to the future. Modern TN models have impressive capabilities, solving complex problems that even a year ago were considered impossible.
The development of autonomous «agents» It is increasing exponentially, while business spending in the sector is being launched. Companies such as Anthropic are expected to display huge revenue annually.
Although so far there are no clear indications that TN «swallow» mass jobs, the speed of its development shows that we should not completely reject these concerns. We are likely to be faced with a deep redistribution of resources and power, with significant political consequences.
Even if the work remains available, it does not mean that it will be qualitative or well paid. As technological companies invest in energy-intensive data centres and increase demand for land and energy, the cost of living can be increased. In an extreme scenario, people could become economically less necessary, as happened with horses after the car prevailed. Income may be concentrated on capital holders, who will also control the means of production, from technology to natural resources.
This possibility, writes Economist, explains why many in the technology industry propose state intervention, even the introduction of a universal basic income. Although such a scenario does not seem direct, governments may have to act in time.
A complete breakdown is not required to cause social unrest. One example is the so-called «China shock», when the country's entry into world trade led to the loss of about two million jobs in the US, a development that contributed to Donald Trump's political rise.
Office employees currently threatened by TN have greater influence than those affected at the time. Even limited position losses can cause severe reactions. Resistance to new data centres is already an indication of this trend, notes Economist. A wider insecurity could lead to large-scale social unrest or even political reversals.
The question, according to the Economist, is how governments should react. One approach would be to slow down technological progress. Some countries, such as China, encourage the adoption of TN, but discourage redundancies. Economists propose higher taxation of capital and allowances for work, while others call for high taxes in data centres.
However, obstruction of technology is not considered a wise option, as TN promises enormous benefits, from economic growth to disease management and climate change.
A more effective strategy, the Economist appreciates, would be the redistribution of profits. If employment is reduced, the lost earnings of employees will be converted into profits for TN companies and their suppliers.
A smart tax system could recover some of these profits through taxes on profits, land and natural resources. At the same time, strengthening heritage taxation could prevent the creation of an elite that controls wealth.
States can help workers adapt. Measures such as wage insurance, which reduces income losses after dismissal, and active employment policies, such as those in Denmark, can facilitate the transition to new jobs.
Nevertheless, it remains doubtful whether such solutions will be politically acceptable. At a time of growing populism, technocratic approaches often do not convince. Experience from the past, writes Economist, shows that adjustment policies are not always sufficient to prevent social reactions.
This is why more radical ideas are being considered, such as the partial nationalisation of TN companies or the distribution of dividends to citizens. Although such proposals cause reactions in the markets, they reflect the need to ensure that the benefits of technology are shared more widely.
The lesson, the Economist concludes, is that concentration of wealth and power must be addressed in time. THE «Armageddon» of the labour market may not have come yet, but if governments expect to see him in front of them to act, it may be too late. Preparation must begin now.
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