When a geopolitical crisis breaks out, investors usually know what to do. They buy government bonds, turn to gold and in Japanese yen and are removed from the most risky assets. But this time we know «Manual» the markets are not working.
Since the beginning of US-Iran war, American bond yields are increasing rather than retreating, the yen has slipped to the lowest levels in recent decades against the dollar and gold has plummeted to levels far from the high of January.
Investors discover that yesterday's safe haven is not necessarily the safe haven of today.
The crisis that does not follow the rules
Analysts point out that today's juncture does not resemble the previous major geopolitical crises.
Instead of fear of automatically leading funds to traditional safe shelters, markets are more affected by inflation, high real interest rates, fiscal deficits and large differences in central banks' monetary policy.
At the same time, investment euphoria around artificial intelligence remains strong, with large technology companies continuing to attract capital despite the uncertain geopolitical environment.
As HSBC's chief economist for Asia, Frederick Neumann, the risk-taking mood remains remarkably strong, while global financial conditions are still favourable.
Because bonds don't work as «shield»
Under normal circumstances, a major crisis leads investors to American state bonds, raising their prices and reducing returns.
Today the opposite is happening. The reason is that the market is more concerned about inflation rather than development.
Ejecting oil prices after the Middle East war boosted inflationary expectations, limiting the attractiveness of bonds, as higher inflation erodes the real value of their future returns.
At the same time, concerns about the budgetary situation in the United States are increasing. The federal deficit is estimated to be close to 1.9 trillion this year. dollars or about 5.8% of GDP, a level that remains particularly high for economy outside recession.
Gold doesn't shine like it used to.
Even more impressive is the behavior of gold. Although the absolute safe haven is considered over time, its price has been significantly removed from the historical highs it recorded at the beginning of the year.
Analysts explain that gold is pressed by two factors: strengthening the dollar and raising real interest rates. As long as the yields of secure bonds increase and the American currency grows stronger, gold becomes less attractive, even in times of increased uncertainty.
There's a second explanation. Last year's rally attracted a large number of private and short-term investors, resulting in market movements being defined more quickly than long-term investment decisions. So when some people faced losses in other investments, they liquidated gold to cover them.
The yen loses the title of safe shelter
The biggest change perhaps concerns the Japanese yen. For decades it was one of the first options of investors in every period of turmoil.
But today the picture has changed. Despite the fact that the Bank of Japan has increased interest rates to the highest levels in the last three decades and despite interventions of around $74 billion to support the currency, yen continues to move close to the lowest levels in the last 40 years against the dollar.
Analysts attribute this weakness to the great difference in interest rates between Japan and the US, but also to Japan's huge public debt, which according to the IMF stands at 204.4% of GDP — The highest worldwide.
Artificial intelligence defeats fear
While traditional safe shelters fail, investors continue to channel funds to companies associated with artificial intelligence.
Nvidia, Intel, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC are still at the heart of interest, as markets consider that the strong increase in corporate profits outweighs geopolitical risks.
As the capital managers note, as long as the projections for business profits continue to be revised upwards, the shares retain significant support, even in an environment of increased uncertainty.
The end of a certainty
The conclusion for investors is clear. Safe havens have not disappeared, but everything no longer moves in the same direction when fear grows in the markets.
Each market now follows its own logic: bonds are mainly affected by inflation and public deficits, gold from the dollar and real interest rates, and the yen from the deviations of monetary policy and the structural problems of the Japanese economy.
In other words, the old crisis investment manual is no longer enough. And for the first time in many years, greater security may not be in a single shelter, but in the right differentiation.
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