Prices of crude oil They completed Thursday's meeting with an increase of more than 2%, as the attack on a merchant ship near the coast of Oman brought to light fears that the complete restoration of energy flows through the Ormuz Strait It may be delayed longer than the markets expected.
Brent closed with a $1.52 rise or 2.1%, at $75.26 a barrel, while the American slow WTI was boosted by $1.58 or 2.3%, closing at $71.92 a barrel.
Earlier in the meeting, prices had fallen to $72 at the lowest levels since 27 February, the day before the start of the war between the United States and Iran, as investors estimated that crude exports through the Straits of Hormuz gradually revert to normality. Prior to the conflict, about 20% of the global oil supply went through the strategically important maritime route between Iran and Oman.
The image changed when a merchant ship reported being attacked by an unknown missile while attempting to cross the Straits of Hormuz near the coast of Oman, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. After closing the markets, two American officials told Reuters that Iran was the one that opened fire on the cargo ship. For their part, Iranian authorities warned that the safety of ships moving outside Tehran's designated routes in the Straits of Hormuz cannot be considered guaranteed.
The incident also led the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to temporarily suspend the program of escorting and supporting ships and sailors to the Straits of Hormuz, until there was a clearer picture of safety conditions in the region, rekindling doubts surrounding the preliminary de-escalation agreement between the United States and Iran.
Flows are increasing, but risks have not disappeared
Despite the new tension, the interim agreement between Washington and Tehran allowed the restart of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz, which Iran had effectively ruled out during the conflict.
According to the Kpler shipping cargo monitoring company, more than 20 tankers, carrying about 35 million barrels of argon, have already passed through the Straits after the agreement was reached. Most of the non-Iran ships remained stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months and are expected to reach their Asian destinations in early August.
At the same time, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Washington's allies in the Gulf that any final agreement with Iran would also take into account their own interests, completing a tour of the Middle East with the aim of mitigating the reservations that still exist for the preliminary agreement.
Analyst estimates
Rystad Energy estimates that oil storage in Gulf countries is currently full of 50%-60%. If tanker traffic is not rapidly accelerated, producers may be forced to limit their production by shifting the full normalisation of the market for the following year.
Goldman Sachs does not expect a significant increase in Iran's oil production even if sanctions are extended beyond August 21. At the same time, it considers that China will continue to be the main buyer of the Iranian argon, as the sanctions of the European Union and the United Kingdom against Iranian oil and tankers remain in force.
UBS revised its Brent predictions downward, placing the price at $85 per barrel for the end of September and the end of December, while predicting $80 for the end of March and the end of June 2027.
Even more pessimistic appears Citigroup, which considers as its basic scenario the significant deescalation of tension and estimates that Brent can move into the $60–65 range the barrel within the next six to twelve months, as flows through the Straits of Hormuz will gradually revert to normality.
